Tonight's TV debate Sunak v Starmer - any predictions?

[CallingOccupantsOfInterplanetaryCraft]

Anyone up for a watch thread? Maybe even debate bingo. I know I know, don't threaten me with a good time. (Bingo suggestions: natural party of business, Labour has no plan, end the chaos, Rayner will take over, assorted references to Starmer's time as DPP probably blaming for Jimmy Saville again, inflation is down etc etc.)

At this point I seriously doubt anything like this will remotely change the game Nick Clegg style. I read somewhere the only way Sunak could come out of this ahead in the polls is if Starmer pulled off a mask scooby-doo style to reveal he's Jeremy Corbyn, which admittedly would be great telly.

I'm so fed up with the endless rhetoric but will definitely watch later anyway.

Using Sunak's maths , The Spectator calculated that the Conservatives published tax plans will cost the taxpayer an extra £3000

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/on-sunaks-maths-tories-will-lift-taxes-by-3000-per-household/

Even at 'just' 5% each year they are destined to be £12,680 within 2 years - a rise of £1000 per year by 2026

So if that happens and the personal allowance is not increased, pensioners would pay tax on...

£110 per annum. Which would be...

Tax payable of £22 per annum.

Yep. And the assumption of a 5% increase was mine - just to show the maths and working out and based on knowledge of recent increases, current inflation etc.

The 'official' estimate I've seen quoted is £14.60 a year in tax, by 2028 which suggests slightly lower than 5% increases in state pension.

Well, that applies to your figures too doesn't it? so we shouldn't believe your numbers either.....

You re also going back on what you said, which was immigration reduces GPD...... make your mind up!

The way some people are posting about this, they make it sound as though pensioners will suddenly have to pay hundreds of pounds in tax. It is just more lies and scaremongering.

I'm not doing any interpretation, just using a single valued number. Hard to be more objective than that. Unless you count mathematical division as interpreting. I wouldn't.

It's a bit like the difference between saying 5 is greater than 3 which 99% of people will agree with (and the rest are not worth arguing with) and Starmer is better than Sunak which is highly interpretable. Night and day. Unless you want to try to muddy the water by getting into what are generally accepted mathematical axioms.

Of course you can argue that the methodology of GDP calculation is complex and interpretable. But I doubt whether it has changed significantly over the time period, so the measure is at least consistent.

Total nonsense.

They aren't my figures. They are official ones compiled by the civil service of different countries.

I haven't just made up what I think the GDPs of different countries are and posted random numbers. I don't work for Labours budgeting department.

Get a grip.

SP wont increase by 5% for each of the next 3 years, but probably will for 2024/25.

the triple lock is average wage increases vs inflation or 2.5%, whichever is the higher, wage increases are also falling, currently 5.6%.

Tax on £100 is £20 per year....

We need to ask exactly why has Sunak frozen tax thresholds for so long?

You need to get a grip, you ve spent your last posts rubbishing mine and others figures but apparently yours are all perfect!!!

At least try and be consistent.

No it isn’t. Do keep up.

All right.

Post what you think the German GDP figures are for 2016 and 2023 in USD.

And the UK ones.

Explain why my numbers are incorrect.

You can't just make this stuff up. It is what it is. Unless of course you live in fantasy land economics where you can just make up random stuff to suit your narrative.

You mis understand me, i'm not saying your figures are wrong (though i haven't checked)
Is there even a GDP measure that ALL countries use?

You dismissed independent figures on the impact of Brexit as politically bias and we can't believe them... but your figures are all ok.

Why should that be?

Incidentally, the EuroZone has grown at 2x the rate of the UK since 2020.

1.8% vs 3.6%

You mis understand me, i'm not saying your figures are wrong (though i haven't checked)
Is there even a GDP measure that ALL countries use?

Probably the calculation is not consistent between all countries, but is consistent over time, and that is all that is relevant for comparison purposes.

You dismissed independent figures on the impact of Brexit as politically bias and we can't believe them... but your figures are all ok

They aren't "my figures" - that's the whole point. They are national figures compiled by the countries involved.

Incidentally, the EuroZone has grown at 2x the rate of the UK since 2020.

The Eurozone is diverse. You can't compare the UK which has a relatively mature and developed economy against relatively undeveloped growth economies like Slovenia and many of the smaller EU nations. You can only compare it to similar countries of comparable size and comparable economic development and diversity. Typically in the EZ that would be France, Germany and Italy. Comparing it to the broader EU which contains countries like Latvia and Luxembourg makes no sense, any more than it makes sense comparing the UK to China or the US.

Just saw this. Seems like more of the same old nonsense from the Tories. Think most people have had enough of the lies and on t.v.

Agree
A few people on here have mentioned the GC issue and been ‘shouted’ down.

No issue that affects 51% of the population is minor.!

Some of them definitely will!

Some of them definitely will!

Who will suddenly have to pay hundreds more in tax and as a result of what announcement?

Everyone receiving a state pension will cross over the threshold upon which you pay tax. That's why rishi is introducing triple lock plus to move the threshold so noone pays tax on state pension.

I don't care if it's only £14, £22 or however much it'll be state pension should never be taxed because their are millions of people who do not have huge savings or big private pensions on rely on state pension and need every penny of it. It will hurt the poorest pensioners the most and labour are supposed to be for the working class....yeah right

So no one is going to suddenly pay hundreds more in tax.

If the allowances etc stay as they are then everyone who solely relies on the state pension will have to pay £14.60 more a year by about 2026 and that's only if the state pension has risen by £1000 a year by then.

I realise for some people the principle is still unacceptable and fair play, we all have our opinions, but don't think it helps anyone to claim 'pensioners will suddenly have to pay hundreds of pounds in tax' because it's not true.

And in the spirit of truth: Labour have not said they would leave allowances where they are. What they have declined to do is to commit to the same policy as the Tories when presented with it during an election campaign.

Maybe they would leave allowances there and cause pensioners to have a £15 a year tax bill.

Or maybe they don't want to look like they are giving away tax money on the fly - something people have held against them in the past - and so need to stick to their commitments first and then see where we are as a country in 2 years' time.

None of us know - though I suspect we all have opinions on which way we'd bet.

Maybe not now but by time I retire it will be. Sorry I just full stop think it is wrong to tax state pension don't care how little it is, if a government cannot commit it or even one debate simply agree that it is wrong I wouldn't trust them. Kier could easily have said I agree it's wrong for state pension to be taxed.

The issue is getting rid of the tories means little in practical terms if there is no plan to improve things from Labour. YES our media would be ‘cleaner’ with less sleaze, corruption and frankly public insults. But that wouldn’t solve all of the issues with our services would it? We can cheer that the tories are gone but if all we are left with is the ruins, and labour can’t fix them; then what??

Maybe not now but by time I retire it will be.

Only if the personal allowance is not updated for everyone in that time - which is very unlikely. It's frozen until 2028 at the moment - and remember those freezes are a Tory decision. Though Labour will stick to them, now they are there.

But also remember Labour have committed to the triple lock, which (as we've seen) means state pensions rise by the highest possible measure of inflation between

• Average earnings
• Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• 2.5%

In practice, that means that pensions keep in line with the cost of living or go up by more than the cost of living increases. Slowly, the state pension becomes more and more valuable. That was the point of the triple lock (cynicism aside about bribing votes).

If that continues pensioners will get better off, regardless of tax.

For example, to pay tax in 2026 the state pension has to have gone up by £1000 a year or around 9%.

Current prices are rising by about 3.4% a year.

In real terms, that means pensioners paid £12500 in 2026 will be £200 a year better off than they are now. Minus £15 a year tax = net improvement of £185 a year.

if all we are left with is the ruins, and labour can’t fix them; then what??

This is a fair question, I think and I haven't a clue! Personally, I just no longer believe it's better the devil you know. I'm happy to roll the dice and see what the other team do with the reins for a while. (If that's not too many mixed metaphores! )

The current government has made the rich richer and richer - the richest quadrupled their wealth in the first four years of the coalition. They spend money on different things than Labour did last time.

There is no magic wand though, especially because of Brexit which has added insult to injury.