Tonight's TV debate Sunak v Starmer - any predictions?

[CallingOccupantsOfInterplanetaryCraft]

Anyone up for a watch thread? Maybe even debate bingo. I know I know, don't threaten me with a good time. (Bingo suggestions: natural party of business, Labour has no plan, end the chaos, Rayner will take over, assorted references to Starmer's time as DPP probably blaming for Jimmy Saville again, inflation is down etc etc.)

At this point I seriously doubt anything like this will remotely change the game Nick Clegg style. I read somewhere the only way Sunak could come out of this ahead in the polls is if Starmer pulled off a mask scooby-doo style to reveal he's Jeremy Corbyn, which admittedly would be great telly.

I'm so fed up with the endless rhetoric but will definitely watch later anyway.

EXPLAINER: Our @JLPartnersPolls @thesun debate poll shows Keir Starmer won the debate by 20 points. That is different to some of the earlier polls.

In our question to voters, we did not ask them to park their politics at the door when judging the debate: that is not how politics works.

Therefore we believe our poll is the best indicator of whether the debate changed underlying attitudes to the main leaders.

Sunak slightly over-performed with 2019 Tories. But with Starmer’s lead similar to his advantage in the opinion polls, there are few signs it moved the dial.

Poll details 👇

x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1798269386014212451?s=46&t=Uw4lJNwxFZFnX0Xs3doHYg

Seriously, how much change do you expect between now and when the manifestos are released ?

They should be all but finalised.

Keeping back info now is pointless.

He had the opportunity to push his policies and in a forum that far more people will watch than will ever bother to read the manifestos. He had the opportunity to sell his policies to the public and failed.

Of course he has skin in the game. He’s the prime minister. Starmer is worth 8 million. He can say he will use the nhs all he wants, but the truth is he can use private any time he wishes, just like sunak can. And if it came to it you’ve no idea what starmer will do.

but pretending a multi millionaire saying he would use the nhs means he’s skin in the game is silly. At least sunak was honest.

So why should a guy who will use his privilege to buy healthcare, bother about most people who cannot?

Yes, it was an honest answer, Sunak does use only private, hence he doesn't care about fixing the NHS.

He promised to cut waiting lists when they were 7.2m they then went UP to 7.8m and have come down to 7.6m.... he now dishonestly claims he has met his pledge!!!

Blames strikes he himself dragged out for the increase but independent research shows strikes added 200k to the lists, so he still wouldn't have met his promise.

He is a timeshare salesman, a fraud, can easily see why he had a successful career in hedge funds, sly as a fox.

The public know it too.

Starmer did say what he would do on loads of issues.
He's going to create a publicly owned energy company relying on sustainable sources, which will bring bills down long term.
He's going to put more teachers into schools.
He's going to tax energy giants, close tax loopholes and ensure non doms pay proper tax - that will help to fund a lot of the Labour initiatives.
He is going to engage in constructive discussion with the doctors - if they get screamed at and talked over by Sunak as Starmer did last night, then it's no bloody wonder there's been no progress in 20 months.
He's going to tackle the smuggling gangs and he is going to respect international law. Sunak just wangs on about that disgusting publicity stunt of Rwanda, where he never, ever points out that the deal includes taking refugees from Rwanda in return or that the scheme is limited to a tiny number of people.

Starmer didn't deliver the performance of the decade. I find it deeply frustrating that he won't acknowledge Brexit. But it's simply untrue to pretend that Sunak articulated plans while Starmer had none. And the sheer bloody gall of Sunak pretending that he helped us all in the pandemic while his party was funnelling billions to their mates for useless PPE is something else.

@Annasoror a great post, that was my take away too and backed by the latest polling on the debate.

The public don't like Sunak, his credibility or his so called plan.

I find it deeply frustrating that he won't acknowledge Brexit.

What do you mean by that? Do you mean, it's frustrating that he won't say Brexit was a good thing?

I don't think anybody could pretend Brexit was a good thing.

I find it frustrating that he doesn't acknowledge that GDP has dropped because of Brexit and that closer alignment with the EU would improve prosperity here.

Sunak came across as utterly smug, completely unable to empathise with ‘ordinary people’ - he didn’t even try.

I actually think he wants to lose the election because he could barely contain his superiority and mean spirited attitude. And it showed.

The private school comment was very ill advised. Most people in the UK have children in state schools and have seen the lack of funding first hand because their children are no longer being taught consistently by qualified teachers. That is a choice the Tories have made because they do not care about hard working people and they have deliberately hindered social mobility. If you can’t afford private school, your children are simply irrelevant to Sunak.

@Annasoror

"I find it frustrating that he doesn't acknowledge that GDP has dropped because of Brexit and that closer alignment with the EU would improve prosperity here."

I don't disagree that GDP has dropped because of Brexit but the majority of voters wanted Brexit.

What do you do? Tell them that they are wrong, that the Government knows better and that you are going to go against their wishes?

Yes

Why should I pay less tax than a working adult with the same income? If you only have the basic state pension you won't pay much tax in the next few years because the personal allowance isn't increased. Isn't it predicted to be pennies a week?

I find the idea that I'm privileged quite funny, I have been my husbands carer for over 30 years due to his disability and retired at 70 to support our finances. As I wasn't in a pension scheme for many years I get S2P which means I already pay tax on my state pension (Sunak doesn't seem to understand that) There are benefits that pensioners can claim if they are in poverty just like any other citizen can. If a pensioner is fit and well why should they pay less than anyone else?

Yes, it's my one big disappointment with Labour.

Govt's are supposed to govern in the best interests of the country.

Once again, Sunak actively pursues Brexit because he can avoid the financial impacts, no skin in the game.

Exactly and why is it OK to divide people like this. I don't want special treatment just because of my date of birth. If people need help, financial or anything else, they should get it based on need not date of birth.

Rishi was looking pretty desperate there right at the end. Bless his cold, dead little heart.

I haven't looked at Labour's plan in massive detail. I think the VAT on Private Schools idea is terrible and will end up costing the state a lot of money, and also cause a lot of chaos in terms of what is taxable and what isn't. I'm not sure all the parents who claim they "can't afford" private school on their £70k+ combined income pa, detached houses and twice annual overseas holidays will be quite so delighted about sticking it to the toffs if little Amelia's violin lessons, afterschool tuition and swimming club also get caught out under the policy, or when, instead of a brigade of high academic achievers with wealthy parents ready to support the PTA, a bunch of shell-shocked mildly SEN kids who can't cope in a mainstream classroom but don't qualify for support under the current rules descend on the local school. It's great news for me in that I live opposite an oversubscribed outstanding primary school and in the catchment for several good secondary schools, so the value of my house is likely to skyrocket when the nearby small private school has to close and the parents start scrabbling for places at the best state schools. I just hope my daughter's school in the next village, which we chose for small class sizes, doesn't get swamped.

However, it is clear that pretty much everything has got much worse under the Tories. I have little interest in hearing what they plan to do, because they've had 14 years. They've had plenty of time. If they were going to make things better, they would have.

Ok we agree to disagree, you’re very for pensioners living on a state pension to be taxed, and feel as working age adults are then the government should be clawing back the pensions they’ve paid into their whole life through working should also be taken.

i disagree. The state pension they got is because they paid tax their whole lives, to them say take some of 9t back and tax it to be is shocking.

but you do you.

Well I'm a pensioner and I haven't been let in on the reason why I should pay less tax than anyone else. I would appreciate it if you can explain why my needs are greater than say a young single parent struggling to pay their rent or a young couple whose mortgage has increased by hundreds a month.

Here are the metrics for the GDP of France, Italy, Germany and the UK since 2016 :

Country/2016 GDP US Bill/2023/Change
Germany/3.47/4.1/1.181556
France 2.47/2.79/1.129555
UK 2.69/3.16/1.174721
Italy 1.88/2.23/1.18617

The idea that the UK has somehow "underperformed" since Brexit is fantasy land economics. There is no evidence that the UK has either outperformed or under performed significantly to comparable EU economies over the similar time period. People come out with rubbish like "ah well, if we'd been in the EU we would have done EVEN better" but that runs contrary to all previous correlations between EU and UK data.

You might find that on a GDP/PPP basis we are underperforming (I haven't checked) but that's because we keep importing vast numbers of people that don't boost the GDP figures.

In my view it is far too early to make any statements about whether leaving the EU has caused us any significant issues re GDP and far to early to tell whether the increasing development of relationships with higher growth economies outside the EU will lead to the divergence of the UK from EU economies.

Once again, It was the tories that removed the pension specific TH, they froze TH 's for 5 years... creating the problem you don't like.

New state pension is 11.5k, the basic one £8.8k, income tax threshold = £12.6k.

Inflation is lower, so it will be a few years before either attract tax, by which time, tax thresholds will be unfrozen and also rise with earnings.

Its a non problem but one you've fallen for.....

Not everyone has paid NI their whole life and your pension is linked to NI not tax. If you've worked and paid NI your whole life you should either have a private pension or S2P as you won't have been contracted out. Just for proof my DH was disabled in his early 40s and hasn't worked since. He certainly hasn't paid NI his whole life or even his whole adult life.

I never said pensioners should be taxed, I said they should be taxed like everyone else. Younger people are working for their wages by your logic why should they pay tax on it, they've worked for it.

Acknowledge that we're poorer as a result of Brexit and say that we are seeking closer alignment on matters such as importing food/ medicines etc

What is the difference between not saying pensioners should be taxed and saying they should be taxed like everyone else. Seems the same thing to me.

lets agree to disagree, I beleive the state pension should never be taxed. That people worked and paid into that, (and let’s not argue about some did and some didn’t) but they earned that and it is their entitlement, I do not beleive the government should take it back in tax.

you do. Fair enough, as said you do you. Just be sure this isn’t a case of you’re such a fervent Labour supporter and so utterly desperate you’d agree with anything, no matter who gets fucked.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/brexit-has-sliced-5percent-off-uk-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-says.html

@GasPanic

Has Brexit reduced UK GDP?
The new report, by Cambridge Econometrics commissioned by City Hall (1), also shows that London's economy has shrunk by more than £30billion. The average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit, the report reveals

Cambridge Econometrics commissioned by City Hall - 11 Jan 2024

We are always told immigration boasts GDP as it fills job vacancies and hence increases tax take and general spend?

Are you saying this isn't true?