Yougov MRP predicts Labour to beat 1997 landslide

[IClaudine]

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide

Im so pleased the Tory’s will be trashed. They deserve it. They’ve made this country a laughing stock, ruined our economy with Brexit and made life very hard for a lot of people.

Yes it looks like a Labour decade; god knows what will be left of the Conservatives who did themselves in. The more extreme they are the more they look like diet Reform. Anyone very right wing will be voting Reform and Labour have occupied so much of the current middle ground that there is nowhere to go.

I do not think this will happen.

Looking forward to an enjoyable night if nothing else.

I think there are a lot of quiet Tory voters including those who are currently saying they won’t vote but almost certainly will come the day…

I think you are right. The Conservatives are history. I think Labour will get in and if they don’t deliver then we could be looking at a reform win next time around. I think Truss was a disaster for the party.

It really depends. If there is tactical voting then the Conservatives really could be down to 70 seats. I think they are hated that much.

They did leave labour a wide open space to move into the middle ground by trying to appeal to ukip voters and moving themselves way over to the right.

@Hedgeoffressian - unlikely that Reform can make up a swing that big in five years. The Labour decade even with a mess seems much more likely if these figures are right. Though I think it will be a torrid sort of Parliament as who would be the opposition? The Conservatives won’t be.

@LizzieSiddal as you may guess from my name I don't have any tribal allegiance to any party.

But why are we a laughing stock?
Is any country glowing at the moment?

At thos point it isn’t impossible that the don’t knows go labour or vote tactically and the silent Tory voters that say they won’t vote actually do stay at home if they can’t bring themselves to vote Tory or anyone else. Which would give a result that would be very very funny.

Brexit, Johnson, Farage to name 3 things.

@Icanwalkintheroom exactly that. Saying you vote Tory is not fashionable so people don’t say it ! To be clear I think Labour will still win and probably relatively strongly but not with that scale of majority

Yeàaaas! Getting our country out of the hands of this corrupt, lying, greedy charlatans as made my night. I'll be walking on the air the day after the election.

I'm not saying it is going to be perfect under Labour. It's going to take at least one term to see the light of day.

A second term to bring more growth and to get our goal of a second referendum - however, there is no hope with the Tories in.

Reform will take seats in the red wall as well as from the Tories.

@Hedgeoffressian re tories I don't think it was truss I think it was ousting the man that actually won that election, Boris! They got rid of the person people voted for!

Then had an endless self indulgent drip of people.

I’m cautiously excited. We are in a safe Labour seat which survived after Brexit waves so I’m not expecting any surprises now but I believe in theory of quiet Tories in other areas.
Plus Labour is not perfect ( aren’t we all …) but some people can’t just settle for reasonably good. They want unicorns when voting.

@RafaistheKingofClay - yea well it turns out Labour priced this all in. They know some of their old vote liked Farage. They found another vote instead. Your average Reform voter probably dislikes Sunak and any effort at multiculturalism. All that effort totally wasted in terms of trying to modernise the Tories. Their core vote doesn’t want it

I really hope this happens on GE day, it will be worth staying up to see all the heads rolling.

Boris’s approval ratings were through the floor. On the surface the Tories got rid of him because of the Pincher issue. In reality a lot of them were worried they’d lose their seats in the next election. Sadly for them all the better leadership options had already been kicked out and the party leader is elected by the party membership who are mad.

@RafaistheKingofClay..

There are strong anti eu sentiments in all eu countries.
Do you really think someone in Spain cares about farage and brexit! News in other countries is quite local.

I find it odd, that there is a presumption that people care that much about our politics

Labour will win but not by this landslide. Remember, Conservative voters don’t tend to shout it from the rooftops. They’ll come out on polling day. I personally am dismayed by the Tories in recent times but I fear a Labour government more. I think quite a few will feel the same way. Lack of options, least worse party will get their vote.

I can well believe this. Had dinner with a group of work contacts recently- people who you might typically expect to vote Tory (40s-50s, high earners). Not one person was voting for them- they were either voting Labour/Lib Dem (or Reform in one case) or planning not to vote. And it really didn't seem a case of "shy Tories" either- people are genuinely sick of them and absolutely furious. Much more so than in 97.

100%.

Tories won’t be back until they can get their core vote back and convince floating voters they are an option. Fortunately for the rest of the country they still seem to be convinced they haven’t moved right enough.

I think it will lead to some people not bothering and so I still there will be more than 200 Tories elected.

Grant Shapps losing would be good though.