Yougov MRP predicts Labour to beat 1997 landslide

[IClaudine]

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide

Agree there are shy tories, it’s a thing, (but why would you be embarrassed about voting for them is another issue)

Have you not seen the insults and abuse rained down on Tory voters if they dare to say who they vote for? It is disgusting.

The thing is, Britain has never had a mainstream party that would talk about immigration and race. We have all told ourselves over the years that we are tolerant and multicultural. That is about to be tested, and I think there will be a substantial minority in the U.K., around 20 per cent who will vote for Reform. Not only can Rishi Sunak never compete on this, he’s managed to drift his own party further and further to the right to effectively cede territory to Farage. Rwanda won’t happen and can’t work, the Conservatives have explicitly racist donors, and their own Ministers (Suella Braverman ahem) stir up conflict against law and order (Cenotaph). The only thing that they have not done is to talk about culture and race. Well Farage is going to do that for them. They are toast.

@Scavernick guess you'd need to ask why that happens so frequently ? If you look at the voting record of Tory MPs it’s often not to support the most needy and most vulnerable. Even Teresa May called her own party the ‘Nasty party’. I don’t agree with name calling and it does left wingers no favours. Otoh some Tory policies are pretty unfair and the way they’ve targeted certain minorities is despicable. Can you even admit that ?

I know a number of natural Conservative voters who are spoiling their ballot. A number who would have perhaps voted Lib Dem, are seriously reconsidering, what on earth is Ed Davey up to, so will vote Conservative to make sure the Lib Dems are kept out. We have no other options locally.

On a thread yesterday someone described Labour voters as 'lefty nutgobblers' or something similar. People expressing left wing views are daily told they're 'woke', paranoid, have muddled thinking.....it's not a one way street.

But why are we a laughing stock?

The state of the NHS, education, the roads, housing, health provision generally, the rivers, economy etc etc........honestly, if we weren't all horrified about the state of the place after 14 years of Tory rule then we would be laughing at a country that has done this to itself.

I was in a meeting at work last week which turned political by my colleague who is socialist and thinks the country is currently run by a hard right government. She is very left wing (dare I say hard left - she would disagree) that any shift to the right makes it hard, hard right. She is always vocal about politics, so the derail in the meeting was no surprise!

Most of the group were mumbling about 'don't know who to vote for' and 'ooh might go green this time' and a few were trying to explain their feelings but were quickly jumped on and shouted at, so I think people do keep quiet.

But the left wing colleague said once Labour get in, she would be happy for Starmer to be kicked out after a couple of months as he's tory-lite and this is the view of most leftists. Not sure if this is true or not! But it concerned some and she was not reading the room after this comment.

Your colleague is living in cloud cuckoo land. Who exactly is going to kick Starmer out? Especially if he does deliver a landslide.

Starmer is somewhat Tory lite, but anything more left wing than that scares the people of England.

This shit about a hard left takover is being peddled all over by Tories - it didn't work in the past and it won't work now, it's just bullshit.

It’s not like the ‘hard left’ we’re talking about is all that hard left comparatively, is it? Isn’t the U.K. centre ground further right than in many places?

My understanding is that that isn’t where the electorate is but FPTP makes it trickier for them because the left vote is more fractured.

Is any country glowing at the moment?

Lithuania apparently

I think Labour will win, no question, but I don't think it will be that type of landslide victory as the anti-tory vote will be more split. It's not that people love Labour (and I remember real enthusiasm for Blair and Brown in 97) - they just want this government out. Labour need to be careful of hubris I think.

I think that most Tory voters who have been voting against their own interests for the past 14 years are now feeling the pinch of their decisions, though. And have changed their vote.

The people who always vote Tory because it actually benefits them are in the minority.

I think there are a lot of quiet Tories.
But for Labour Scotland is essential and I think they have a chance of reclaiming their votes up there from the SNP.
Boundary changes have reduced laBour strongholds. I don't think it's going to be like 97. But I will feel euphoric if the likes of Jeremy Hunt lose their seat. That will be my Portillo moment

Quiet tories in the past definitely. But now the turkeys have witnessed their own Christmas maybe they’ll be less determined to vote for them.
Too many of them have experienced everyday life in the UK, hit by living costs, hampered by Brexit, seen their own kids priced out of a home of their own and unable to get a decent paying job.

I think Labour will win. If they get that sort of majority then god help this country. I hope there's a more balanced parliament.

What utter bollocks.

God help us if we have any more Tory rule - look at the damage they have done over the last 14 years.

Great post
That is a genral consensus that the socialist leader/Starmer will be booted out by Angela rayner and Co if Labour does manage to slip in via the back door with a coalition partner/s.

The same could br easily stated re your post.

The post you quoted is spot on but it does not meet your agenda, hence the outburst!!

That is a genral consensus that the socialist leader/Starmer will be booted out by Angela rayner and Co if Labour does manage to slip in via the back door with a coalition partner/s.

Where's this 'general consensus'? Please could you send some links?

A coalition government is a fully legitimate outcome of a democratic process in a situation where the electorate choose not to give any one party a majority mandate to govern. This isn't 'slipping in by the back door', it is an option in a democratic system, and in countries which do not have FPTP it is the norm. Implying that there is anything shady about it is disrespectful of the democracy we have here in the UK.

I don't think we'll get a 1997 style landslide (though I will be happy if we do), but equally I don't think there are as many 'shy tories' as the wishful like to think. There's also the fact that the Tories have made a lot of young people very angry - the current generation are a lot more politically engaged than was the case 5 years ago, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is reflected in turnout. The Tories have really shafted the young.

God help us.

You may not agree with all of their policies, neither do I. People shouldn't be called thick twats etc for having different political opinions though.

Even the farmers near me who always have pro conservative banners up every single local and national election aren't supporting the Tories. Nobody can name anything positive the Tories have done for the country as a whole over the last decade or so. They've run the country to the ground and Rishi may as well just step down now he already looks defeated.