Yougov MRP predicts Labour to beat 1997 landslide

[IClaudine]

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide

Tbf I meant votes not seats! Farage could win though?

Don't forget FlipFlop Starmer who changes belief every 4 days or moderates it rather eg women can have penises, or at least 1% have penises.
He has.made his contempt for women clear and his sketchy knowledge of biology makes him a laughing stock.
He is a bad enough party leader but don't ignore who is waiting in the wings - the extreme left. I think they will come.crowding back to the fore once Labour are in power. If that turns out to be true, you'll be screaming to get the Tories back after two or three years.

I agree about the hard left but would not want the current Tories back - a better version though. They need to sort themselves out as they are not in good shape at all atm.

I do not think Farage is a joke. I think he is quite serious and his agenda is to get us all looking at each other with the “who are you, where are your origins” idea.

I think he will be rather successful in that, even without a lot of MPs. We will have some explicit discussion of immigration and where from. That is his whole aim in this. I would not dismiss it lightly at all.

I have a feeling you're right.
And even the Tories will be surprised because most of them are clearly looking forward to their long summer holiday instead.

The Tories will be so complacent if they win this one though! They themselves will be laughing incredulously at their voters.

FYI, we, my parents and i came to England in the early 60's from an Asian country

Immigration has to be controlled and it has to be fair, EG, the people in boats from France to England - not fair as they by-pass those genuinely wanting to come here and pay thousands in costs to become Brit citizens a a "British citizens test" that many indigiounous may fail

Sunaks impotence re the above and empty works and others ie right wing playing on that make me as uncomfortable as I felt in the 70 and 80 and a bit in the early 90's -

Farage IMO attracts the wrong type of crowd at times, EG, hard right-wing but cleaver so very subtle

The solution to immigration is, get the workshy back to work and stop rating, empty words, more action is required than rants that only fire up the wrong types IMO

TBH, I liked Farage a little as he sounded like a light-hearted joker, but he is not and he is not for me

I think they have mellowed since Ed Davey became leader, from what I have seen of their election policies they are more aligned with Labour than Conservative.

I'm an immigrant from Africa whose parents fled political persecution. My dad even brought in his young family

The fact that I'm white, it was from South Africa (where my dad already had a secret police file) and he studied to be a doctor once he was here.

He's quite clearly batshit.

They're also funded by a puberty blocker manufacturer.

Yes this. Dreadful mess.

And my point is he’s a disgrace. PMs can lose their job.He did because of his incompetence and dishonesty and complete lack of integrity.

But if they take a couple of thousand votes off the Tories in seats where Labour wins by 500 votes they'll make a big difference.

Farage has a very small amount of nuance because he has to right now. Once he gets a core of an older, frankly white set of voters I think you will see something vastly more racially tough. And he has been given an invite by a series of Home Secretaries to do this (Braverman, Patel). Now he can go much further thanks to them resetting the narrative.

I see him already in the Telegraph discussing Reform as the patriotic alternative. His vote will not give nuance. They want the country back as it was when they were younger, less crowded, less “diverse”. That is his playbook, and what’s interesting about the election is how popular it may be. I do not think any of us know.

This

I'd love a 1997 landslide but I think it will be closer than that poll suggests when all the shy Tories come out

I'm not a fan of the tories at present but my god, Labour supports really are a tedious bunch.

Yes, they voted that way as many millions fell for the lies of Johnsom and Co. As said on Q.T. last Thursday by Morgan to Farage, 'that he (Farage) wouldn't disagree if there was another referendum as it would go the other way now' Obv Farage didn't answer

I agree, I will be surprised if it’s anything like this!

Agree 100% facts and millions fell for it

😂

Reform are a pretty fringe party, in the sense that their political notions are at the far right end of the spectrum. I don’t think they stand much of a chance of getting anything aside from a larger share of the vote, in the same way UKIP did on their single issue platform.

is there any actual evidence for the shy Tory idea or is it just the last gasp of desperate “we’re not dead yet!” propagandists?

I hope so but I was looking closely at my own constituency today and realised for the first time that a former Labour MP is standing as an independent. She will almost certainly split the vote in what is anyway a tight fight and the Tory might well triumph. But online is calling it for Labour. I think caution is needed .

You’ve got to be realistic about the gender and sex stuff. Yes, important, but a single-issue election-swinger? Not a chance.

Particularly as, when you cut through the rhetoric, there isn’t actually much difference between the Conservative and Labour platforms on the issue.

Neither are going to repeal the Gender Recognition Act (so yes, legally, you’ll still be able to have a penis and have your ID docs
say you’re female). Both say they’ll clarify the current law to protect single sex spaces.

The main difference is Labour will make it easier to get Gender Recognition Certificates. The Conservatives also made the process easier and cheaper a couple of years ago, mind.

@SammyScrounge yeah pretty much like the far left did with Blair and Brown 🙄

Agree there are shy tories, it’s a thing, (but why would you be embarrassed about voting for them is another issue). Yet the country is in an absolute state, nothing works, corruption, lies, I think even life long tories will abstain.

I think Farage will also attract votes from a lot of younger white people- probably mainly, but not wholly, male, the racist football supporters who turn out for Tommy Robinson and his shit-stirring, the anti-refugee 'They are responsible for all the housing, school places, NHS problems ' crowd, as well as the Laurence Fox types.

I think a lot if people who would never admit it will vote for them.