Yougov MRP predicts Labour to beat 1997 landslide

[IClaudine]

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide

Well if Farage wants us all to look at ourselves and our origins, my DNA says 76% Scottish, 18% Irish, 3% Welsh and 3% Germanic Europe. No English at all. And I loathe him and everything he stands for. He will never speak for me.

I agree with you but my area will remain a Tory seat, not a chance that it won't.

@Scavernick the insults come from both sides. It’s not like only Tory supporters are gracious and respectful is it ? Remember the aftermath of Brexit ? There was plenty of name calling. But that’s immaterial. If policies are deliberately implemented to hurt certain groups, tensions and passions rise. The right wing press plays its part too, inflaming public sentiment. I remember the 80s when Tory rhetoric against single mothers and gay people was off the scale, unprecedented really.

Exactly. It is only post 2019 that the reality of Brexit has really started to bite and eat into people’s incomes.

To echo what others have said, there is a degree of public 'shame' (for want of a better word) in admitting you vote Tory, so there will be more votes on the day than appear in the polls.

Plus, it's a bit of a well-used tactic to over inflate the support for the other side in the polls because it makes it more likely their voters won't bother to turn out, because they think it's a done deal.

I would not count anyone's chickens here until they are fully hatched.

Do you remember what the Lib Dems did when they formed a coalition?

I do - and I was outraged at the time. But, they've paid for it since and I don't think they'd ever do it again.

I bet they 100% would go into coalition again if given the chance - why wouldn't they? Ultimately politicians want to gain power - that's really all they are for - so if they get a chance they will take it.

I agree about the silent Tory, also think that if it is bad weather, many of those who voted Tory previously and don't want to this time will stay at home.

also think that if it is bad weather, many of those who voted Tory previously and don't want to this time will stay at home.

Yep, I think it's far easier to tick a name in a box for an online /phone survey than it is to get organised enough for a postal vote or actually take yourself down to a polling station on the day. Especially if it's raining etc.

I think this is a much closer contest than it seems and would encourage anyone who has a side they want to win, to go and vote for them. Even if it seems like a slam dunk or lost cause.

Just watch what happens to the stock market as we near the GE
However, as those in the know do not expect Labour to win outright but at best, slip in via the backdoor with a coalition partner. There is is chance the markets will remain steady in the hope the "partners" will real in the fiasco planned by thLabour

God forbid if Labour went in and in a few months was ousted by the left and Ms Rayer became PM. There will be no nuclear deterrent under her as her stance is anti nuclear

With the verbal beating received by the socialist labour leader the other night from Sunak - I wonder what will happen if he was really to become a joint PM with his coalition partenr/s

Both parties spout BS and sadly people keep on falling for it

If you work, have savings, your own property, a private pension or two and or a BTL, trust me, the socialists will see you as their money tree!!!

However, as those in the know do not expect Labour to win outright but at best, slip in via the backdoor with a coalition partner.

Could you kindly provide some links to 'those in the know', please? Because in the interest of openness and transparency in the democratic process, those need to be shared.

Should those links not be forthcoming, I'm going to go with the polls, which aren't narrowing just yet and point to - well, the opposite of a coalition.

However, even if we do end up with a coalition, this would be a completely legitimate outcome of the electoral process - simply put, a matter of the electorate not wanting to give any one party a mandate to govern. This is common in countries with proportional representation and even in the UK is something that could happen, as shown in 2010. A coalition would therefore not be 'slipping in via the backdoor' but would instead be fully legitimate. To hint that it would be in any way shady is to show a fundamental disrespect for British democracy. Are you opposed to democracy?

With the verbal beating received by the socialist labour leader the other night from Sunak - I wonder what will happen if he was really to become a joint PM with his coalition partenr/s

Please refer back to the para above for the truth about coalitions in a democracy. It's also worthwhile to look at the articles below, which show that Keir Starmer in no way received 'a verbal beating' - in fact, one poll shows him coming out the winner. In an era where there is so much misinformation, it's really important not to add to the lies and obfuscation from politicians by posting things which are inaccurate and misleading - I hope we can all agree on that.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49618-general-election-2024-itv-debate-snap-poll

https://news.sky.com/story/election-latest-news-uk-sunak-starmer-tories-labour-live-12593360?postid=7773446

Well said @pointythings : it is always useful to remind readers (both active posters and thoselurking) about a) what the actual consensus was after the debate and b) what democracy actually means.

An understanding that seems to be lacking in certain posters.

And that's even before pointing out the explicit lie promulgated by Sunak about the "Treasury endorsement" of the supposed £2,000 tax cost of Labour's plans.

You might find this article interesting about 'don't knows'.

And this poll includes 'don't knows' and discussed potential to change mind.

I find polling quite fascinating!

People should be thinking about a Labour decade; these figures suggest exactly that. If some polls are correct then the Conservatives might not even come second. Labour could face Lib Dem opposition if Reform takes Tory votes. The polls are not adjusting on Labour’s lead. But the Conservative vote is declining. Now that’s worth watching

General Election Prediction (electoralcalculus.co.uk)

I find polling quite fascinating!

Me too. I am especially interested in how (or if) the patriotic score changes after yeesterday!

I bet they 100% would go into coalition again if given the chance - why wouldn't they? Ultimately politicians want to gain power - that's really all they are for - so if they get a chance they will take it.

Oh I think they will (sorry I wasn't clear). I just don't think they'll ever do so with the Tories again - I think the subsequent damage to their party was almost catastrophic and while there are people in that that can remember that, I think they'll give Blue a wide berth.

Agreed