@Fruitygal we do Pearson/Edexcel maths.
2019 - 40.6% of candidates got A* or A, 16.5% of candidates got B
2021 - 54.8% of candidates got A*or A.
2022 - 47.7% should get A/A, so 7/16.5 of the people getting a B in 2019 would get an A in 2022. In 2019 a grade boundary of 50% would have resulted in around 47.7% of candidates getting A/A.
@crazycrofter applying that to RS:
2019 - 19.5% got A*/A, 25.7% got B
2021 - 39.6% A*/A, 30.1% got B
2022 - 29.6% A*/A, 28% B
So in 2022 10.1/25.7, ie 40% of the Bs would As
The grade boundaries are super high for RS!
2019 A* 91%, A 79%, B 64.5%
I am assuming an even spread across the Bs, so 40% of the Bs being As in 2022 means an A/B boundary around 7% lower than 2019, so I reckon 72% for an A in 2022.
Of course all the marks could be lower because teaching has been patchy this year or all the marks could be higher because people will be given advance notice of the topics covered, but the planned grade inflation means that 72% in the 2019 papers would have been enough for a A with the 2022 statistics.
No idea whether that will make sense to anyone else!!!