Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
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There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

@MaybeNotBob
@pointythings

Been said before, but for the benefit of those who may not be aware, or conveniently forget, watch the BBC Question Time episode broadcast 5 December 2024.

Both Nigel Farage (pro Brexit) and Alastair Campbell (anti Brexit) agreed that allowing immigrants into the UK is okay if they were working. The key word was working.

As the population of the UK ages and deaths exceed birth rate, more people from outside the UK will be needed to fill jobs. The key word there was jobs.

Not to* *fill hotels at a cost of £120 per night per person at the expense of the those who do work, pay tax and are struggling with cost of living.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland is one of the hardest hit regions w ~9% GVA loss by 2023

The biggest sectors (whisky & food, oil & chemicals, professional services) make up 44% of its EU exports. Brexit erected barriers across all of them.

And Scotland didn’t vote for this...
brexitcost.org/itl1/TLM.html#overview

4/...

🏙️ London takes the single largest hit: ~£70bn GVA loss in 2023 alone, or around 12% below counterfactual

TCA imposed full third-country status on the UK for services, i.e. financial and professional services lost single-market access, hitting London the hardest
brexitcost.org/itl1/TLI.html#overview

5/...

The political economy punchline?

Areas that voted most strongly for Leave have not suffered the largest economic costs. The correlation is weakly negative as Remain-voting areas (London, Scottish cities, university towns) bore the brunt

Brexit was a levelling up by levelling down

8/...

@DuncinToffee

Again you are providing links based on estimates as opposed to measured data. Remember the forecasts made by the so called economic experts in 2016?

500,000 to 800,000 jobs would be lost just by a vote to leave. Never happened. Up until 2024, unemployment had declined since 2015. Labour trashed that by making employment more expensive.

George Osborne threatening an emergency budget if UK left the EU 8 days before the referendum. Taxes up and spending down. Even the Conservative Party rubbished this at the time.

The US president, Obama, being promoted by Cameron and Osborne to say that UK would be back of the queue if they left the EU.

Wrong again. UK is one of a handful of countries in the world that has 10% tariff applied by the US. EU has 15%.

@DuncinToffee

Areas that voted most strongly for Leave have not suffered the largest economic costs. The correlation is weakly negative as Remain-voting areas (London, Scottish cities, university towns) bore the brunt

As always, you overlook the following facts:

Article 50 was triggered by 498 MPs in 2017 subsequent to the Gina Miller case.

The electorate was given the chance to revoke Article 50 in the 2019 general election, but chose not to revoke.

If Scotland thinks they will be better off in the EU, why have they not called for another independence referendum? As per YouGov, which you seem to think is accurate, Scotland is 50:50 whether or not they want independence.

Also, as per YouGov, 3 in 10 think they would be better off if UK rejoined the EU. So, the other 7 in 10 must think they would be worse off or no difference.

The really really really obvious solution to the point you raise about hotels is to allow asylum seekers to work.

@pointythings

Asylum seekers can work after their application is processed and accepted. Or if they have been waiting for 12 months or more for a decision.

However, employment is restricted to highly skilled occupations. Rightly so too. Otherwise it would be free movement in disguise with low skilled jobs going to foreigners that could be done by nationals.

The rent a room scheme applies to asylum seekers. So, why aren’t the remain supporters, who according to many on MN represent the majority of the population, offering their spare rooms to asylum seekers and refugees. They could earn £7500 per year tax free.

There are an estimated 17 million homes with at least one spare room in the UK. That’s enough to cover the UK population increase from 50 million (1950) to 68 million (2026).

https://www.cer.eu/insights/cost-brexit-ten-years-impact-leaving-customs-union-and-single-market-uk-trade

@DuncinToffee

The link you have provided talks only about UK trade with the EU. What about trade outside the EU which is 85% of all world trade.

Again, the figures are estimated as opposed to measured.

The remark:

We find that a customs union with the EU would do little to recover those losses.

does not support an argument to rejoin.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-10-brexit-might-just-have-killed-the-conservative-party/

Could be considered a brexit benefit?

If it weren't for Farage

@DuncinToffee

The Conservative Party, under David Cameron, were the ones that promised a referendum on EU membership if they won the 2015 general election. However, that does not mean they were the only party to support Brexit.

498 MPs voted to trigger article 50. At the time conservatives had 330 MPs and not all of them voted leave. So, there were 168+ MPs from other parties that voted leave.

In the 2017 general election, both conservatives and Labour pledged to honour the decision to leave the EU. Outcome was 42% conservatives and 40% Labour.

Labour, seeing the difference between them and the conservatives was only 2%, switched from leave to remain in the hope they could force and win a general election. Extensions and the Benn Act all had the same motive, to ignore the result of the vote cast by MPs to leave the EU

Hence the reappearance of Nigel Farage in the form of the Brexit Party who took 30% of the vote in the EU elections 2019. Labour backed off from an election because they knew they would lose. They did.

Conservatives messed up the opportunity to optimise the benefits of Brexit. So, Farage forms the Reform Party to entice people away from voting conservative. It worked.

Will Nigel Farage become rhetorical next PM? Doubtful I would say as to go from 5 seats to 326 is a huge leap. Also, the FPTP system seems to penalise smaller parties.

Maybe the next election will see a repeat of what happened in 2010 when Nick Clegg was in the driving seat to decide who he teamed up with?

Whatever happens, Farage is doing a great job in proving to the two parties who have dominated for over a century that people are fed up and want change.

I'm aware of the status quo. It needs to change. We still have shortages of workers in many places - and with asylum seekers, you can put them where they are needed. When they work, they will pay for themselves, so money saved much sooner. What's the problem?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/uk-could-keep-special-pre-brexit-terms-if-it-rejoined-eu-michel-barnier-says?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg75npqkq4o

The UK economy has taken a 6% hit from the effects of Brexit, according to economists' analysis of internal Bank of England data about the decisions, views and financial results of thousands of British companies since the referendum a decade ago.

@DuncinToffee

Jean Claude Juncker has stated that UK will never rejoin the EU in his lifetime. Poland has stated UK wouldn’t be allowed to have the same opt outs as before. Remember it only takes one member to say no.

As always the guardian cherry picks from the YouGov polls. The bit that states only 3 in 10 think they would be better off in UK rejoined the EU is not mentioned. Why is that?

As for the BBC link, take note of, with emphasis in bold:

Some policy economists have argued that it is difficult to model how much the UK would have grown without Brexit, and that such studies overstate Brexit's impact, especially at a time of so many global crises.

That the electorate does not rate these estimates is evidenced by the outcome of the general elections held since MPs voted to leave in 2017.

@pointythings

Less than half of asylum seekers who arrive in the UK take up employment. Link is:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/refugee-integration-outcomes-rio-employment-from-2015-to-2023/how-many-refugees-are-in-employment

So, what are the other half doing?

In every country I have worked in outside the UK, including the EU since 2021, I have had to have a job offer and visa BEFORE I entered. Most visa include the statement:

No recourse to public funds.

As for hotel costs, I am still wondering why remain supporters are not in Dover waiting to collect boat arrivals and accommodate them in their own homes.

Rightly so too. Otherwise it would be free movement in disguise with low skilled jobs going to foreigners that could be done by nationals.

CAre home work would be considered to be relatively low skilled. Where are the numbers of nationals willing to do this work?

I think the assumption that successful asylum seekers only have the ability to do low skilled jobs is - well, the word starts with the letter R.

@Peregrina

CAre home work would be considered to be relatively low skilled. Where are the numbers of nationals willing to do this work?

My father has been in three different care homes since 2019. The number of nationals working in those homes far exceeds those who ethnicity is not UK. However, it’s possible that those who are not UK ethnicity were born from families who have been in the UK for several generations?

Care home work being considered low skill is a major fail considering the UK population is ageing. It should be subject to training and receive a decent wage.

If someone is claiming benefits is offered a job they are capable of doing, they should be forced to take it. If they don’t, benefits to stopped immediately.

@pointythings

I think the assumption that successful asylum seekers only have the ability to do low skilled jobs is - well, the word starts with the letter R.

Who made that assumption?

Take a look at

sonylaw.com/2026/05/02/what-jobs-can-asylum-seekers-do-in-the-uk/

Asylum seekers work in:

• Health and social care roles (e.g., care assistants, nurses, occupational therapists)

• Construction and skilled trades (e.g., bricklayers, carpenters, electricians, plumbers)

• Engineering positions (e.g., civil engineers, mechanical engineers, electrical engineers)

• IT and cybersecurity professionals (e.g., software developers, network engineers, security analysts)

• Certain teaching and laboratory technician roles (e.g., secondary school teachers in shortage subjects like maths or physics)

For information, the most anti migrant countries are:

The highest scores of all 53 countries analyzed were in Austria (34%), Germany (31%), the Netherlands (30%), France (28%) and Sweden (27%).

Source:https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/austria-is-the-most-anti-immigration-country-in-the-world-survey/2893984

Does it honestly think that anyone can be arsed to read it's long screed of AI generated nonsense?

Who made that assumption?

Er.... you did. When you said this:

Otherwise it would be free movement in disguise with low skilled jobs going to foreigners that could be done by nationals.

Your list suggests the opposite, with asylum seekers going into a range of skilled jobs. Where the UK badly needs workers. So which is it?

This time ten years ago we still had hope
now look at the state of our political leadership

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/20/leave-voting-areas-foreign-workers-decade-since-brexit-referendum

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