Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
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There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

The Brexiteers are are combination of the following:

The 498 MPs who voted to trigger Article 50 on 29 March 2017; and,

Everyone who didn’t vote for the Liberal Democrat’s on 12 December 2019, over 28 million.

As per the link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dcms-economic-estimates-gva-2024-provisional/dcms-sectors-economic-estimates-gross-value-added-2024-provisional

The arts sector has grown over the last decade.

To:

@MaybeNotBob
@pointythings
@DuncinToffee

If UK is worse off due to Brexit, why has Starmer not called for a vote in parliament whether or not to trigger Article 49?

Why are remain supporters not taking the government to court? If there is overwhelming evidence what have they got to lose?

Brexiteers are the 'I am alright Jack'

On BBC 2 tonight at 9PM is showing 'Brexit, A very British Civil War'

@DuncinToffee

Brexiteers are the 'I am alright Jack'

Is that not confirmation the majority are better off?

On BBC 2 tonight at 9PM is showing 'Brexit, A very British Civil War'

The BBC coverage on Brexit has been biased since the referendum. Link is:

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/was-bbc-question-time-balanced-or-biased-on-brexit/

If there is a war, it’s being won by leave as there is no mention of a vote in parliament to trigger article 49.

@DuncinToffee

Brexiteers are the 'I am alright Jack'

Is that not confirmation the majority are better off?

On BBC 2 tonight at 9PM is showing 'Brexit, A very British Civil War'

The BBC coverage on Brexit has been biased since the referendum. Link is:

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/was-bbc-question-time-balanced-or-biased-on-brexit/

If there is a war, it’s being won by leave as there is no mention of a vote in parliament to trigger article 49.

You do realise that repeating the same ignorant nonsense over and over again doesn't stop it from being ignorant nonsense, don't you?...

@MaybeNotBob

It’s only considered nonsense by those who don’t like it. I await your proof that the cost of the UK rejoining the EU will be recovered in a year. A statement you made almost two months ago, but have never justified.

A whole 12% of voters think Brexit has been a success. And just 25% of Leave voters.

@DuncinToffee

Polls of small numbers can’t be extrapolated. If you remember, polls from 2013 to 2016 forecast a remain victory in the referendum. Didn’t happen. Even if the polls that had a 4% or less difference were ignored, it favoured a remain result.

The current yougov poll places Reform at the top of the pile. How can that be if the data you have presented is accurate? Or is it a case of all polls are wrong?

More importantly, look what happened in the recent local elections which reflected actual votes as opposed to small samples.

Most significantly of all is the question (yet to be answered by remain supporters);

If there is evidence that the majority of the UK is worse off since Brexit, why has the government not called for a parliamentary vote whether or not to trigger article 49?

Lastly, remember the following provable facts:

UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 in Q1 of 2026. How can that be if being in the EU is better for trade and growth?

UK has lower immigration than Germany, France, Spain and Italy. How can that be if being in the EU guarantees lower immigration?

US tariffs applied to the UK are lower than those applied to the EU. How can that be is larger blocs are guaranteed to have more negotiating power?

ChatExpat going on another ramble...

If he can find a poll showing that most people think Brexit is a success, he can share

@DuncinToffee

If he can find a poll showing that most people think Brexit is a success, he can share

This has been answered before. However, for the benefit of those who may not be aware, the polls are:

2017 General Election

82% of elected MPs were from Conservative and Labour parties. Both stated they would honour the decision to leave the EU

2019 General Election

The electorate was offered the opportunity to revoke Brexit by the Liberal Democrat’s. However, the Liberal Democrat’s did not win. Hmmm?

Labour stood on a manifesto of a second referendum with the option to remain. They got their worst results in 84 years. Hmmm?

2024 General Election

Labour manifesto U turned on their Brexit stance compared to 2019. It made the statement that UK would not return to either the customs union or the single market. It also stated they would smash the trafficking gangs.

They won twice as many seats compared to 2019. Hmmm?

Conservatives lost big time. Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg acknowledged on BBC question time they deserved to lose as they had failed to control immigration. Take note the word control was used as opposed to reduce.

Move to 2026, the polls show Reform at the top of the pile. However, due to the polls being based in very small numbers, I would not rate them as reliable. The polls from 2013 to 2016 favoured a remain win in the referendum, but they were wrong.

Separate topic, but I watched episode 1 of the BBC 2 documentary about Brexit A very British Civil War. The following came out:

Boris Johnson favoured leave as he wanted to trump David Cameron as he couldn’t best him at tennis! The Eton boys playing one up man ship.

Obama was prompted by George Osborne to say the UK would be bottom of the list for a trade deal with the US if they left the EU.

When polls began to show the possibility of a leave win, Osborne gave a speech on 15 June 2016 (8 days before referendum) which stated if UK left the EU the following would happen:

Taxes would rise
Inheritance tax would rise
Cuts to NHS

To plug a estimate £30 billion black hole.

Never happened and both Cameron and Osborne resigned soon after the referendum.

The point being remain campaign was based on unsubstantiated scare mongering.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/14/how-uk-economy-changed-since-brexit-vote-charts

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-heseltine-farage-boris-johnson-uk-eu-b2994030.html

@DuncinToffee

Are articles you have posted based on measured data or estimates/guesses?

The text, with emphasis in bold and underline, tells me it’s a guess as opposed to a measured fact:

“The statistics are really clear: the UK has grown more slowly after Brexit than before,” Bloom said. “Is it because of Brexit? Probably. You can’t be absolutely certain

As for polls, I don’t trust them based on how wrong there were regards the outcome of the 2016 referendum. However, for those that do believe they are correct (particularly when they say what they want to hear) take note of the following bullet points from YouGov polls with emphasis in bold and underline:

• While 55% of Britons say they support the UK rejoining the EU, this falls to just 35% if the UK had to rejoin without its prior opt-outs, with 43% opposed

Makes sense to me. Why pay to rejoin if the deal is worse than before?

• 59% of Britons support a closer relationship with the EU but without joining the EU, single market or customs union, the only relationship backed by a majority of Remainers and Leavers

Sounds like there is little support for a rejoin.

• Britons expect that rejoining the EU would have benefits to the UK economy, but just 31% feel it would improve their household finances

This one is a killer. Only 3 in 10 think they would be better off if UK rejoined the EU. I’m

Does this not explain why none of the major parties had rejoining the EU in their 2024 manifesto?

Maybe YouGov should have asked the question:

What would be the disadvantages of the UK rejoining the EU? I can think of three which are measured as opposed to estimated:

EU has higher immigration than the UK

EU has higher US tariffs than the UK

EU is lower down the G7 list for growth than UK

Maybe Heseltine needs to speak to Jean-Claude Juncker who has said:

UK rejoin will be blocked by many EU members. Reasons he gave were;

EU is wounded by UK decision to leave. ie pissed off because UK dared to leave the club.

UK closeness to the US as the US is not popular in the EU. ie pissed off because the UK got a better trade deal from the US than the EU. Thus destroying the idea that the EU is the world’s economic superpower.

He also went on to say that UK would not have the same opt outs as before:

No rebate
No Schengen
No Sterling, but Euro

So, there it is remain supporters. The chances of a rejoin are zero.

Brexiters’ claims that the UK would be able to aggressively deregulate and forge new trade alliances with the likes of the US have failed to bear fruit

The EU blocking the UK from rejoining has always been a real possibility

@DuncinToffee

UK population growth rate is higher than any of the EU members on the chart presented. Link is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_population_growth_rate

So, GDP is being spread over more people.

The oddball is Germany. They have a negative population growth rate and at the same time their GDP per capita is the lowest on the chart. However, Germany is ranked as the third largest economy in the world. So, how does that compute?

Italy also has a negative population growth rate. So, their GDP is spread over fewer people.

Netherlands GDP is distorted by the Rotterdam effect as it includes goods that are unloaded from one ship to another in a short time frame.

Ireland has a similar situation. Huge GDP/capita, but salaries don’t reflect that. Reason is simple. A large portion of the wealth produced in Ireland does not belong to Ireland, but foreign companies who pay 12.5% corporate tax and keep the remaining 87.5% for themselves.

The conclusion is that GDP/capita does not reflect the full picture.

The EU blocking the UK from rejoining has always been a real possibility

So, what are remain supporters doing about it?

Ah, but our population growth is being driven by, er, immigration...

@MaybeNotBob

As per the migration observatory; 68% of UK population growth between 2005 and 2024 was due to net migration, 2023 being the peak year. Since 2020, growth was almost entirely attributable to net migration. Link is:

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-impact-of-migration-on-uk-population-growth/

Growth is forecast to decline from 2028 onwards as deaths surpass births.

So you're saying that immigration is good?

Don't confuse the poor immigrant...

https://brexitcost.org/brexitcost.pdf

I think it was Sunak he said 'best of two worlds'

🇮🇪 The striking exception: Northern Ireland

NI is the only constituent country with near-zero or positive GVA gaps

Why? The NI Protocol (now Windsor Framework) means NI effectively remains inside much of the EU single market. It's the clearest counterfactual within the UK itself

6/…

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