Brexit MegaThread - part 14

[Peregrina]

Thread 13. We had a debate about whether there should be a new one but if no one answers this the whole series after 8 years plus will come to their end.

Brexit happened, although one time Leavers do not seem to appreciate this.
It's worth noting I think that Brexit was a Tory initiative and the Tory party has just received its worse electoral thrashing since 1832. Could it be entirely unrelated?

What next? A gradual rapprochement with the EU? A Norway style agreement?

I would expect a better return for 50p

@DuncinToffee @HannibalHeyes

The motivation to Germany to invest in the chip factory is detailed in the article by the text:

and a boost for conservative state premier Michael Kretschmer, who faces a strong challenge from the anti-immigration, far-right Alternative for Germany party ahead of next year's regional election.

Remember that Michell Barnier has warned Macron about a possible Frexit. Take a look at:

Ground News - 'We could Frexit!' Michel Barnier lets rip at Emmanuel Macron as he blasts migration failures

The EU is aware of the dangers of such failures as evidenced by the 9 billion they have given to Turkey:

EU-Turkey migration deal: Four million refugees, €9 billion in aid and a mixed record (lemonde.fr)

Immigration is not a thing of the past. It's becoming a bigger problem as time passes. Not just for the UK, but for the EU too.

But immigrants like you and me are ok?

But immigration happened in the past. So it must axiomatically be a thing of the past.

Immigration in the future has not yet happened and indeed may not happen. Therefore it is not immigration.

I got the bus home from town on Sunday after supper.
At one particular stop all the people with brown skin and strong accents got off.
As they stood up the tunic colours were clear to see.
Shift Change at the Hospital.
Bloody immigrants coming over here and staffing our NHS

That is quite poetic.

Just going back to this - so what's going to happen? People will be checked at one end of town, and then drive through Dover in sort of bubbles of Frenchness or something?

It really is just so far beyond a joke it's just not funny...

The Road from Western Docks to Eastern Docks is narrow and have roundabouts.
Securing it is almost as daft as securing to and from Sevington.

Family live in Kent.
The council tax there has gone mad as KCC try to make residents safe in the face of Whitehall insanity
and that is before the new rules kick in
for what ?

2 million Hong Kongers
2 million Ukranians
1 million commonwealth
NONE of whome come through Dover

There was a checkpoint charlie
he didn't crack a smile
but it's no laughing party
when you been on the Dover mile

&c

rather current ...

Here's a good thread about what state we're in;

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1828379123569381609.html

(I can't wait for Global's AI to come back with something about the number of psychologists in belgium...)

Starmer is in Germany today and will request priority access to the German economy for British businesses .

26 more countries to go

I hope he's learned all the words for "no" in their languages.

Sorry, who does he think he is ? Boris Johnson ?

I think Labours EU "policy" as is, is just about to meet the real world.

(Gets popcorn).

@SerendipityJane Immigration in the future has not yet happened and indeed may not happen. Therefore it is not immigration.

Incorrect statement. Immigration into both the EU and the UK is increasing.

Previous levels of immigration were sustainable and useful. This was confirmed by Farage in the run up to the election.

Labour's 2024 manifesto made the statement:

But under the Conservatives, our economy has become overly dependent on workers from abroad to fill skills shortages. As a result, we have seen net migration reach record highs; more than triple the level than at the last election in 2019. The overall level must be properly controlled and managed. Failure to do so reduces the incentives for businesses to train locally. So, Labour will reduce net migration.

@DuncinToffee 26 more countries to go

That makes the assumption that each member trades with all other members. They don't.

You have also made the assumption that to trade with the EU it's a prerequisite to be a member of the EU. Very incorrect as evidenced by the number of trade deals the EU has with 41 countries who are not EU members.

Take a look at

Free trade agreements of the European Union - Wikipedia

Agreements finalized, but not yet signed include some of the poorest countries in the World :

Burundi - the worlds poorest country
Sierra Leone - 9th poorest country
Niger - 10th poorest country

Meanwhile, countries like Norway and Switzerland have said they will never join the EU. Both have higher standards of living than any of the EU members. France and Germany included.

Sweden, who is an EI member, has applied lesson learnt and now has zero net immigration. Take a look at:

Sweden now has zero net immigration. What should we make of that? (msn.com)

This is a major reversal for Sweden. In 2015, the government opened its doors to any asylum-seekers that could reach Sweden. But the costs to Sweden from that generous offer have been brutal, and voters opted for a moderate-right coalition in 2022 that would listen to their concerns

If your ideals lead you to implement policy that would harm your citizens, don’t do it. Or if you have started in that direction, then reverse course as soon as you see the harm being done. Don’t be proud, don’t be rigid — just reject doing harm to your people in the name of idealism.

Sweden listened, and has been vindicated every time it has.
There’s a lesson in that for our own country.

Popcorn is quite a universal word

GlobeTrotter2000

you posted

Incorrect statement. Immigration into both the EU and the UK is
increasing.

in response to

Immigration in the future has not yet happened and indeed may not happen. Therefore it is not immigration.

Can you check your response as you have clearly misunderstood that the information "in the future" places the complete statement as a potential outcome which is as yet uncertain. It is semantically incorrect to ascribe definitive nouns like "immigration" to an unknown future position in the absence of other criteria allowing a superposition to be established.

Therefore your assertion of an incorrect statement is itself incorrect. This therefore renders your following extrapolation and explanation incorrect and invalid.

Could you re-address the original statement in such a way as to account for the fact that events that have not yet happened are not clearly defined and may therefore be subject to multiple labels depending on the context used.

Just for interest here's someone elses view:

Prompt training 8/29/2024 :

Certainly! Let's re-examine the exchange and the underlying semantics.

Original Exchange Recap:

• *Original Statement*: "Immigration in the future has not yet happened and indeed may not happen. Therefore it is not immigration."
• *Response*: "Incorrect statement. Immigration into both the EU and the UK is increasing."

Clarifying the Misunderstanding:

The original statement is discussing a hypothetical or future scenario. It correctly points out that because the future has not yet occurred, what may or may not happen cannot be definitively classified as "immigration" yet.

My response was focused on the current trends in immigration rather than the future potential described in the original statement. This created a misunderstanding because I addressed present realities (i.e., increasing immigration) rather than the speculative nature of future events.

Revised Response:

Given that the original statement is discussing potential future immigration, it is indeed correct that we cannot definitively label hypothetical future events with certain terms, as those events have not yet occurred. The use of a term like "immigration" in the context of future possibilities is speculative and depends on numerous factors that may or may not come to pass.

If we are discussing current trends or historical data, we can assert that immigration is increasing. However, when referring to potential future scenarios, it's essential to acknowledge the uncertainty and avoid definitively ascribing labels to events that haven't occurred.

Conclusion:

Your critique highlights a valid point about the importance of context when discussing future events. A more precise approach would involve distinguishing between current trends and speculative future scenarios, ensuring that terms are used appropriately based on the context.

Good luck. Toodle pip.

Le popcorn ?
Das popcorn ?
El popcorn ?

or should that be

POPCORN !

😀

Previous levels of immigration were sustainable and useful. This was confirmed by Farage in the run up to the election.

In which case, what on earth did we Brexit for? Sovereignty, which we never lost. Make our own laws, which we did anyway. More money for the NHS - nothing to do with the EU. Curb immigration - a biggy for many Leavers, including Farage, and apparently, that wasn't necessary.

As for Norway will never join - Norway already has a comfortable agreement with the EU and like Switzerland and Iceland is a member of Schengen. This is a very far cry from the Brexiter stance of Gove/Rees-Mogg etc. that "We want nothing to do with the EU whatever."

@SerendipityJane in the future" places the complete statement as a potential outcome which is as yet uncertain.

But, according to remain supporters, the future of the UK after it left the EU was certain to be a disaster. The treasury report in 2016, prepared by "experts" stated the following:

500,000 to 800,000 jobs would be lost just by a vote to leave. Never happened

GDP would have shrunk 4% by Q3 of 2018 whilst the UK was still in the EU. Never happened

An emergency budget would cripple the UK. Never happened

@Peregrina

Read more carefully. The statement was

Previous levels of immigration were sustainable and useful

The key word being previous. Labour's 2024 manifesto records that immigration levels have grown too high. They won 412 seats. Double the number compared to 2019 even though they received fewer votes than in 2019

As for Norway will never join - Norway already has a comfortable agreement with the EU and like Switzerland and Iceland is a member of Schengen.

Proving that you don't need to be a member of the EU to trade with the EU.

Ireland is a member of the EU, but not in Schengen.

This is a very far cry from the Brexiter stance of Gove/Rees-Mogg etc. that "We want nothing to do with the EU whatever."

Please provide a link that proves this statement was made.

The key word being previous.

When? 1800, 1900, 2000? It's a bit woolly, isn't it?

As for the statement that they wanted nothing to do with the EU - trouble yourself to do any sort of google to see the stance which Gove and Rees-Mogg took re the EU. Gove who cleared out, but at least Rees-Mogg had the decency to fight the election, and not run away.

No Ireland isn't in Schengen - but that wasn't the point I was making. Norway etc. don't have the same belligerent attitude to the EU that the previous Government had. Parts of the Kingdom of Denmark aren't in Schengen either and so what?

I must say though, Starmer does rather appear to be tying himself up in knots over Brexit. We want a closer relationship but we don't.

Eventually I suspect that we will come to some sort of Norway style accommodation, where it's to our mutual advantage.

Right now, he appears to be Boris lite, wanting cake and eating it.

And the UK still hasn't lived up to it's side of the Withdrawal Agreement.

Starmer does rather appear to be tying himself up in knots over Brexit. We want a closer relationship but we don't.
He knows that for the UK to really make an attempt to flourish it NEEDS to get into the EU BUT he also knows he can't declare it publicly because the liked of Globetrotts will continue to whine and disrupt any attempts at being social with Europeans. Since the EU have said repeatedly there will be NO cherrypicking, Norway or Switzerland style arrangements will not even be discussed for a LONG time by the EU. The continual 'whataboutery' by Globe and it's friends is getting mighty tedious.

Tommy many names is throwing a hissy fit about the talks, the bloke with an Irish passport who fled to Spain