Brexit mega thread part 13: All eyes on Ireland

[SerendipityJane]

With the Windsor framework up & running, and the DUP having a "you could set your calendar by it" hissy fit, but Irish unification refusing to keep it's head down, what next in the long running sage of UK vs. the real world ?

Maybe update your thought process then

Haven't tried those @DuncinToffee

Have you tried Lidl's new mini banana cakes from their bakery? Delicious although I should avoid them as I usually follow a HFLC Way of Eating

Ooh, I haven't seen those, might give them a try next.

Oh yes: lots of diverse ingredients coming together to form a whole that is better and more delicious than the sum of its parts.

They're good to get if you've got a free bakery item from the Lidl Plus app as they're 99p (but a decent size). Good value though even if you have to pay for them

(I bake my own sourdough loaves for dh to eat so never need to buy a loaf with the free voucher)

Did you really? I'm shocked, I tell you. Shocked!

The sourdough loaves are too much crust for my liking, I like the GI loaf as my free bakery item.

The two tablespoon of olive oil that I put into my c600g loaves (500g flour + 100g starter + water) keep the crusts a good texture: chewy but not too thick

I meant the ones in Lidl, yours look delicious.

I realised that - I bought one once for dh and wasn't impressed . That's why I no longer bother with shop bought sourdough

I thought it was Clav that only shopped in Waitrose or their local farm shops...

Additionally, if you only shop in Waitrose you'll have missed the fact that a lot of their stuff is poor quality, and that you can get much better quality at certain other shops.

Or at any old supermarket in France...

Oh dear, I think we've hit a metaphor.

Poor quality and expensive sounds like something beginning with B...

Waitrose do sell veal ... (runs away)

The two richest people I've ever known
(hired Gary Rhodes to personally cater their their wedding lunch for 24 on the Oriana, had matching Mercedes SLKs with ultra personalised plates)
ALWAYS shopped in Lidl

I do most of my shopping at Lidl (and eat well ) and only go to Sainsbury's about once a month to get what's not stocked by Lidl (primarily loose leaf Darjeeling and Early Grey tea really elitist blend that we like and Lindt 90% chocolate (and just now, while dh is recovering from his hip replacement, 0% Guinness)

Lidl has really upped its range, so there is less and less that I need to get at Sainsbury's

Looking forward to enjoying the extra thick, 36 day aged Scottish grass fed fillet steaks that are sitting in the fridge (bought as part of the 10% off shop as our monthly treat )

Lidl stocks the best range of really nice European food so I shop there from time to time, though Aldi is more convenient for me. I rarely visit Waitrose, except for Ecover products when they’re on special offer.

Always a bad idea to rely on stereotypes, though more human in expression than we usually see from Globe, so well done.

A lot of rich people stay that way by not spending money.

Richest person I know (one of Scotland's landed gentry, owns a load of forests, he and his dw seem permanently to be off on/just back from/about to go off on holiday ) never buys a new car, always gets either an ex-display model or one with a very low mileage. The amount of value a new car loses simply by driving it off the lot is ridiculous

Unpicking what's happening as we speak

His video was interesting. I suspect that the agreements gained will only be ones which the EU wants - but some of those were on offer originally but the Tory Government threw its toys out of the pram and said no.

After that video it went on to another one about the LibDem threat to the Tories. This is hard to predict but I think that if the Tories chase Reform votes they will alienate voters in the South East at least, who were probably Remain voters and say, well, now the LibDems have 72 seats, they are not the joke they were, we will give them a try. It is possible that the Tory party could split.

As for the LibDem gains. I live in a Lib Dem constituency. While the Media for the last few years have been slagging off Labour they have ignored the LibDems who were quietly winning seats in Local Government in the South East. So it is not exactly a surprise that Henley and Thame went LibDem. Demographic changes also helped - Thame has seen a lot of new housing, which has been taken by people priced out of London, who tend not to vote Tory. Reform came third but even adding Tory and Reform votes together, they wouldn't have beaten the LibDem candidate. The turnout was high at 72% but I suspect that a lot of Tory voters stayed at home.

The Reform vote is not for the Tories. It's unstable and self limiting. If the next 4/5 years do deliver some appreciable improvements in peoples perception of living standards then it will shrivel.

The real prize for the Tories is the 40% who didn't vote at all. That is untapped free votes, if you do it right. However, having experienced the tedious incompetence of the past 14 years, there is no point even imagining them realising that while they are in the thrall of the right wingers.

I've said this across multiple threads. If CCHQ had actually read the threads on MN, they could have probably got another term. But there's none as blind as those that won't see, as my old DGM would say.

Reform got the same share UKIP did
Turnout was down due to ID and apathy
only changing the system will change the big results

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/move-germany-30pc-off-tax-bill/

@Talkinpeace only changing the system will change the big results

Conservative and Labour party will never agree to change the existing system as they historically do well by FPTP and they fear Farage big time based on the figures below and the reasons they happened.

GE - 2015 (UKIP) - 3.9 Million votes

GE - 2017 (UKIP) - 600,000 votes

EP - 2019 (Brexit Party) - 5.2 Million votes

GE - 2019 (Brexit Party) - 645,000 votes

GE - 2024 (Reform) - 4.1 Million votes.

Farage spooked Cameron into promising a referendum if he was elected in 2015. Cameron wound his neck out by saying the referendum result would be honoured and it was a once in a lifetime decision. Leave supporter cut Cameron's head on 23 June 2016.

Both Cons and Labour said in their 2017 manifestos they would honour the referendum result. So, no need for Farage to get involved. However, after the 2017 GE, the Labour party changed their minds and thought if they became remain supporters they would force and win a general election.

Enter Farage. The Brexit Party topped the 2019 EU Parliament Election with 5.2 Million votes. This made SNP, Labour, Lib Dems and Greens panick. They forced extensions and introduced new legislation in an attempt cancel the result of the 2016 referendum, but Farage was more clever than they thought.

Farage out foxed them by agreeing not to stand against the Conservatives in 2019 GE. Boris won with a majority and UK left the EU as had been voted for in 2016.

In 2024 GE, Farage went against the Conservatives as revenge for fact they had not delivered Brexit. That worked too as Labour won 412 seats and page 117 of their manifesto states the UK will remain outside the EU.