Brexit mega thread part 13: All eyes on Ireland

[SerendipityJane]

With the Windsor framework up & running, and the DUP having a "you could set your calendar by it" hissy fit, but Irish unification refusing to keep it's head down, what next in the long running sage of UK vs. the real world ?

What you don't say is how in many cases Reform siphoned off the Tory vote and let Labour or Lib Dem in. That wasn't very sensible of your favourite fascist party was it?

That was the plan all along. With the resulting Tory meltdown the goal. A job spectacularly well done, if I may say so. And also a job that isn't finished. Having filled ToryHQ with petrol, Reform are now handing out matches for the remaining MPs to play with.

Unless a totally unknown and powerhouse Tory leader can be found to pull them back to the centre, then they really are marching to their doom. And as with Brexit, there are onlookers screaming at them to change course.

One has to wonder what will happen - will Braverman throw in her lot with Reform? Will the rump of one Nation Tories decide that they have more in Common with the LibDems and join them? Will Reform show themselves up badly and implode?

It has to be remembered that in Local Govt UKIP has previously had a lot of councillors - but they never lasted long. I think at most there are only a handful left now, if any.

Current reporting is that Braverman is out as leader - amazingly not horrific enough it seems.

The (remaining) Tories have already decided that they lost because they weren't nasty enough. And we all know (especially on tis thread) how once an idea has formed, any subsequent evidence will merely be used to prove it.

At the moment this is a mere sideshow to reality, thankfully. The tories are free to choose another clown leader, based on "the cut of their jib" and they will receive a weekly lesson in being effective at PMQs.

I can easily see Farage in parliament spending more time attaching the Tories than the government.

I don't think UKIP (or any of its successor parties) ever had a single councillor in Scotland . We did have one odious UKIP MEP, who only got in through initially the Last Man Standing rule under the d'Hondt system in 2014, and then reached the giddy heights of 14.8% in 2019

For all the noise they are now making Reform with their five seats is only a party of eastern England. Labour and LibDem are represented in all three countries of GB. The Greens while also only with a presence in England do at least have a spread across the country.

The only strategy for Reform now, is to bleat on, and on, and on and on about how "it's not fair bwah bwah bwah" every time they are near anything that looks like a live mic.

"So, Mr. Farage, why have you done fuck all to help your constituents, and spent 6 months visiting far right leaders around the world?"

"Well, Laura, with the UK broken electoral system there's no point, is there ?"

Luckily we have a press that spent many decades telling us how perfect FPTP is. With printed archives if needs be ...

@SerendipityJane That was the plan all along. With the resulting Tory meltdown the goal. A job spectacularly well done.

Correct. However, the poster Peregrina did not realize that.

Farage stepped aside in 2019 to avoid voters choosing his party over the Conservatives to ensure that the UK left the EU as voted for in 2016.

However, as Farage has pointed out in recent weeks, the Conservative government did not deliver Brexit. The miserable 26K per year earnings (which is well below the UK average) did nothing other than to encourage more immigration.

Also, being tied to the ECHR was a failure as the UK was unable to implement it's own immigration laws. Likewise many EU laws still apply to the UK.

So, Farage got his revenge as 4 million voters selected Reform which is 4 million less for anyone else, but it was the Conservatives that lost out the most. Farage said after the result that Labour was always going to win anyway.

FPTP will remain for a very long time, if not forever, as the larger parties do well under that system.

@Peregrina

I have not critizied Labour for their result. I considered Reform, but as it was clear that Labour would win and they stated they would not rejoin the EU, I voted Labour as I did in 1997.

So, I am pleased that the Labour won 412 seats and after the result Starmer re-affirmed the UK would not rejoin the EU. I also had a made a bet they would get 400+). Not great odds, but still a profit.

FPTP favours the larger parties which is why they will never support a PR system. So, Reform, Greens and Lib Dems will have to live with that.

Conservatives knew they would lose. Particularly after Farage stood as a candidate and Labour had pledged to honour the 2016 referendum result.

@Peregrina is one of the more insightful and thoughtful posters on these threads. I would happily pay more attention to them being "wrong" than any amount of "this'll do" cut and paste from random posters.

However, the poster Peregrina did not realize that.

You do not know what I realised. I would have had to have been a bit dumb to miss the Tories saying Vote Reform and get Labour.

However, as Farage has pointed out in recent weeks, the Conservative government did not deliver Brexit.

We are no longer in the EU. Did you miss that? What Farage didn't deliver was an option which he wanted ( which was??), nor you either by the sound of it. But that was always going to be difficult with 17 million options to choose from.

As for FPTP always being with us. Who can say? Five years ago the Tories crowed about Labour's worse defeat for 84 years, to be slaughtered by the worse defeat ever.

However, as Farage has pointed out in recent weeks, the Conservative government did not deliver Brexit.

Where was he when Brexit was not being delivered ?

The routine by James Acaster sums it up to perfection :

Diner orders a fillet steak from a menu board outside a restaurant.

They order it, sit down, and are served a plate of shit.

When they complain they are told that the menu board was nothing to do with the restaurant, the people that wrote it didn't work for the restaurant and no matter what you order, you aren't getting a fillet steak but a plate of shit.

As political commentary goes, it's more insightful in 3 minutes than years of any media outlet.

Nick Thomas-Symonds has been appointed as Paymaster General and Minister for the Constitution and European Relations

Correct. However, the poster Peregrina did not realize that.

I’m impressed by the condescending tone. AI truly has made great advances.

When I mark essays, one indicator of AI cheating is a proliferation of American spellings. There are others, coincidentally regularly seen on here.

I'm just impressed that Peregrina still bothers to read his posts

I can't be fucked wasting my time

No, I don't know why I bother.

I apologise on behalf of Eastern England.

I’m impressed by the condescending tone. AI truly has made great advances.

I have definitely been dissed by ChatGPT. I setup a custom chat for a niche technical subject, and then asked a basic question. The reply started:

"As an experienced Linux professional, you will be aware ...."

which if a human had said to me, I would have found snarky.

Remember though: "AI" is really still just very clever pattern matching.

@Peregrina But that was always going to be difficult with 17 million options to choose from.

How do you know that each person who voted for Leave in 2016 did so for reasons that were different to all the others who voted remain? Can you provide evidence to prove that statement is correct?

Hannibal made a similar comment previously, but was unable to provide proof. Maybe you can do better?

As for FPTP always being with us. Who can say? Five years ago the Tories crowed about Labour's worse defeat for 84 years, to be slaughtered by the worse defeat ever.

So, why has Starmer not called a vote on whether or not to trigger Article 49 to rejoin the EU? With the majority he has, would it not be a formality?

Or is he remembering what Labour said on page 117 of their manifesto which is:

With Labour, Britain will stay outside of the EU. But to seize the opportunities ahead, we must make Brexit work.

There will be no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement.

@SerendipityJane Where was he when Brexit was not being delivered?

He wasn't an MP if you remember. That was a mistake made by Johnson when he won in 2019.

Why not appoint those who were certain that Brexit would be best, ie Farage, Mogg, Gove, etc.to lead Brexit once the transition period has expired and say

"okay boys, go ahead and prove it"

At the beginning it was Cameron who was a remain supporter and then handed to T May who was also a remain supporter.

Yet more screeds of irrelevant waffle.

Anyone going to bother to read? Not me...

@HannibalHeyes I prefer a different kind of irrelevant waffle.

Ooh @pointythings - that looks lovely. You're making my mouth water

Incidentally, I wonder how much "free money" would be available to the new government if they get the already agreed EU Brexit deal working properly ?

I have a feeling we are going to discover a lot of money was being spent on ideology by the Tories.

The Tories burned a fortune. Pleased they were booted out.

@pointythings

Some might say the photo posted sums up the UK well since Blair became PM in 1997. Can you work out the resemblance?

I quite like these from Lidl

@DuncinToffee

Amazing. I thought all remain supporters were meant to be:

ultra high IQ and members of mensa

massive earners (250K per year minimum)

shop only in Waitrose and would never be seen dead in shops like Lidl where only leave supporters shop