Brexit mega thread part 13: All eyes on Ireland

[SerendipityJane]

With the Windsor framework up & running, and the DUP having a "you could set your calendar by it" hissy fit, but Irish unification refusing to keep it's head down, what next in the long running sage of UK vs. the real world ?

Didn't we just know that GlobeTrotter2000 would be bellyaching about Reform losing out?

The Greens and LibDems have been complaining for years about how the First Past the Post system disenfranchises those who vote for smaller parties and have been seeking electoral reform to a proportional system*. But I don't recall GT2000 ever espousing the cause of electoral reform. Only now the system doesn't suit you, you are whining.

As it happens, the LibDems (who people like GT2000 were very happy to write off) are now the third largest party at Westminster with 72 seats.

*And no the rejected AV system is not a proportional one.

Other things worth noting - Sunak was gracious in his party's defeat and accepted responsibility. Farage's party has known fascists in it, who thankfully mostly didn't get elected. Did he take responsibility for their selection? Did he heck. He blamed the vetting company.

To think that Cameron called a Referendum to deal with UKIP and his right wingers 'banging on about Europe'. We are now out of the EU, but the Faragists have still not been appeased and have now potentially wrecked the Tory Party itself.

Brexit has failed and the Party that championed it has been given a well deserved drubbing; a much bigger drubbing than Labour got last time, which the Brexiters crowded about.

So it's time now for you to shut up GT2000.

Ha, ha.

Reform, that had its own candidates defecting on account of their own party’s indefensible racism.

What a sorry state of affairs.

Ironically, the only party that has unswervingly promoted PR is the LibDem (previously Liberal) party, of which I was a member for decades.
(Edited to add the Greens + PR).

The SNP also continued to support PR - even during the years when it was (according to PR principles) "over" represented at Westminster, so a proper PR approach would've resulted in fewer SNP MPs.

Sorry, I should have added “in England” (and I’m not sure about the SDP, which I believe still exists).

To think that Cameron called a Referendum to deal with UKIP and his right wingers 'banging on about Europe'. We are now out of the EU, but the Faragists have still not been appeased and have now potentially wrecked the Tory Party itself.

I've just written Nigel Farage a thank you note. It's not satire to say he's a rare beast - a politician who achieved something they publicly said they would do. And that is destroy the Tory party. Something 40+ years of voting against them has got me nowhere.

The Tories should have ennobled him and shoved him in the Lords where he can't do so much damage.

As predicted

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-eu-keir-starmer-irish-b2575471.html

Reform, that had its own candidates defecting on account of their own party’s indefensible racism.

Yes, and contrast Sunak's dignified acceptance of the fact that he was responsible for the Tory losses. Compare it with Farage, not accepting that his party is racist but blaming the vetting company for not doing their job properly. No chum, you are now the boss of the party, so the buck should have stopped with you.

To be fair to Sunak, I think it's really Johnson and Truss who are responsible for wrecking the Tory Party - Johnson partying while people were left to die alone with Covid, ppe contracts given to his wealthy mates, and Truss for crashing the economy and sending people's mortgages rocketing.

Reform, some of whose candidates may not in fact have existed
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/general-election-2024/5113916-was-your-reform-candidate-a-fake

To be fair to Sunak, I think it's really Johnson and Truss who are responsible for wrecking the Tory Party

I disagree. It's Cameron all the way. His craven cowardice in not dealing with the extremists of 2010 led to the referendum that split the country and inevitable the Tory base. It's easy to rewrite history, but worth remembering a fucktonne of the Tory membership were remainers. Maybe reluctant and pragmatic, but certainly opposed to Brexit. The Tory machine may have swallowed the Kool Aid, but it's members - and more importantly voters - most certainly did not.

....It's easy to rewrite history, but worth remembering a fucktonne of the Tory membership were remainers. Maybe reluctant and pragmatic, but certainly opposed to Brexit. The Tory machine may have swallowed the Kool Aid, but it's members - and more importantly voters - most certainly did not.

This may explain why in Remainer constituencies in the South East that they have gone over to the LibDems.

Again, don't let the fuckers rewrite history.

There was nothing pre-ordained after the Brexit result. Loads and loads of moderate remainer Tories were conned with the mild talk of staying in the single market and customs union. They never dreamed the tory party of their youth would fuck them over so hard - that was reserved for socialist scum.

Then Covid killed a lot of them.

I still remember standing in Parliament Square listening to Heseltine.

We have not moved our position
the Tory Party did
to its peril

Elections are won from the middle ground
(unless there is gerrymandering of course)

Talking of gerrymandering - some say that the new constituencies were gerrymandered in the Tories favour. I don't know whether that was so, but if so, it didn't help them.

Re voter ID the ex MP Rees-Mogg admitted that this was an attempt to rig the vote in their favour. Well it backfired.

Similarly with the elected Mayors - that had been changed from some sort of preference system to FPTP - but that didn't help them either, because in the last round of Mayoral elections only Ben Houchon won for the Tories - I think all the others went Labour.

There appears to be an odd wisdom of crowds about electorates. It's why fascists hate them.

Certainly in UK terms, the electorate appears to have been very canny at leveraging the weaknesses of FPTP against the incumbents when it's needed. And it's not like there was a town hall meeting.

I see Farages latest holy war is against FPTP. I look forward to completely reversing my views of 40 years and dedicated what few years I may have left to opposing PR at every possible opportunity.

Step #1 in the fascist playbook is to pretend it's rigged against you and then to try to act as if you had won.

Speaking of the Dork Prince, has anyone else heard that the 5 Reform MPs are planning on walking into Parliament tomorrow in dark suits, sunglasses and playing "Little Green Bag" on a borrowed ghetto blaster ?

I have friends who work at the Boundary Commission.
UK boundaries are excellently and apolitically drawn.

I am very chilled about PR arriving
because every vote will count
protest votes will no longer be needed
smaller national parties will finally get a proper voice

It would also allow both the Tories and Labour to split, making UK politics much more responsive to change

Viva la France 🇫🇷

I hope those early estimates about the united left wing dealing a blow to Marine Le Pen's lot are right (or left - oh, you know what I mean!). I've been really worried about it and interested to see the 1,000 French historians coming out to warn of history repeating itself! 🇫🇷 🇫🇷 🇫🇷

From twitter

Britain, Friday: “Wow! Look at all that tactical voting to keep out the right. Unprecedented!”
France, Sunday: “Tiens ma biere”

Excellent, @DuncinToffee, pinched and shared elsewhere, thank you!

@Peregrina @Talkinpeace

LibDems got 14% of the vote which would be 91 seats under a PR system. So, with 72 seats they still lost out like the other smaller parties.

Reform’s 15% would be 97 seats. This ensures that both Conservatives and Labour will become more determined to oppose a PR system.

Brexit has failed and the Party that championed it has been given a well deserved drubbing; a much bigger drubbing than Labour got last time, which the Brexiters crowded about.

If Brexit has failed, why has Starmer not instigated a vote in Parliament whether or not to trigger article 49 and for the UK to rejoin the EU? With the majority he has, would it not be a formality? Or, is Starmer sticking to his statement that UK will not rejoin the customs union and single market in his lifetime as pointed out by PrettyBird? I would say the latter.

For information, Labour got less votes on 4 July 2024 than they did on 12 December 2019.

Also, for information, the referendum was put on the table in 2013 by PM David Cameron who was leader of the Conservative Party. The Brexit Party was not formed until 2019, 6 years after Cameron had promised a referendum if he was elected in 2015 and almost three years after the 2016 referendum. So, the referendum was actually championed by the Conservatives.

Good grief, you really are lying to order aren't you! Yes, yes, the Brexshit Party had nothing to do with UKIP, just as the Deform Party has nothing to do with the Brexshit Party.

You lost, get over it...

And with candidates like this for your country's preferred party, I have some suspicions...

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

I said all along that this would the result in France. The French make good use of their two rounds of voting. This meant they were able to register their protest vote in the 1st round and then "get sensible" in the 2nd round.

I was living in France when Mitterand first came to power and saw them using their votes tactically over the two rounds first hand

@HannibalHeyes

Yes, yes, the Brexshit Party had nothing to do with UKIP, just as the Deform Party has nothing to do with the Brexshit Party

498 MPs voted to trigger Article 50 in 2017. At that time, UKIP only had one seat in parliament. So, who were the other 497 MPs who voted for Brexit?

Labour have said before and after the election result that the UK will not rejoin the customs Union or the single market. The link was provided by PrettyBird.

Labour seat 412
Conservative seats 121
Reform seats 5

So, 538 (83%) seats in parliament are taken by parties who support Brexit. That is an increase of 40 over the 498 MPs who voted to leave the EU in 2017. Does that not demonstrate that support for Brexit is increasing amongst elected MPs?

If those who can be bothered to vote have changed their minds regards Brexit, why did the LiberalDemocrats get 14% (almost the same as in 2019) of the votes instead of 100% of the votes?

The purpose of reform was to take away seats from the conservatives as a Labour win was always on the cards as Labour stated before the election that the UK would not rejoin the EU. It worked.

@prettybird

The two rounds system is good in that the elected party has a majority. The downside is that once people’s party of first choice has been eliminated, they may not bother to vote in the second round. So, the elected party may not represent a large amount of the population.

You really are tedious GlobeTrotter2000

If Brexit was such a sterling success, why weren't the leading Brexiters trumpeting this in their election materials? Why did Rees-Mogg lose his seat. Why did Gove and Leasdom run away without a fight? Both plenty young enough to have served another ten years or more in Parliament.

So, the elected party may not represent a large amount of the population.

Do you ever stop to think about what you write? You have just criticised Labour for getting a disproportionate number of seats for their vote share, so it equally applies that the elected party in the UK doesn't represent a large amount of the population, and nor did Johnson's Government with his 80 seat majority.

What you don't say is how in many cases Reform siphoned off the Tory vote and let Labour or Lib Dem in. That wasn't very sensible of your favourite fascist party was it? And don't try to pretend that it or Brexit party are new parties - they are still vehicles for Farage so UKIP/Brexit/Reform are all one and most people know that.