Brexit mega thread part 6: Invasion and Evasion

[Opal8]

New thread

Interesting:
bylinetimes.com/2022/03/07/government-didnt-record-minutes-of-meeting-between-lebedev-and-johnson/

But Brexit did not make it easier for Putin to invade Ukraine, did it? The response has been as unified as it would have been if we were still in, because the response is about Nato solidarity, not EU solidarity.

One thing that made it a lot easier for him to invade was Germany's very misplaced, foolish and naive energy policy, as a result of which the Russian war machine is still being funded every single day in spite of sanctions.

@Applesonthelawn

But Brexit did not make it easier for Putin to invade Ukraine, did it? The response has been as unified as it would have been if we were still in, because the response is about Nato solidarity, not EU solidarity. One thing that made it a lot easier for him to invade was Germany's very misplaced, foolish and naive energy policy, as a result of which the Russian war machine is still being funded every single day in spite of sanctions.

I'm not sure what that opening conjunction links to, but anyway...

(a) It is entirely possible to think Brexit is a steaming pile of shite and that Germany's energy policy is also fecking daft. I know this because I think that.

(b) The fact that BJ got elected on a Brexit platform and then proceeded to fill his Cabinet with incompetent pro-Brexit-yes-people who are now fucking up something as basic as a system to allow war refugees to enter the UK, leading to justified criticism from EU partners, doesn't help with a "unified" response on that level. (I realise you didn't refer to this aspect, since your focus is on NATO, not the EU, and to war, not those it has displaced, but the point stands.) The UK response is also a result of the xenophobia fed by Brexit propaganda. cf posters on MN saying the UK is already creaking at the seams, as though Moldova were wealthier and better able to host thousands of refugees...

(c) There is credible evidence that Putin encouraged Brexit, interfering in the referendum in order to destabilise the EU. The fact that he misdiagnosed the outcome of that plan as regards the response to his invasion, as he has misdiagnosed much else, doesn't detract from that fact.

(d) chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

To speak of linkages most certainly doesn’t mean that Brexit ‘caused’ the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I’m not sure that anyone is actually claiming this (reports of people doing so seem to distort what is actually said, though of course it’s always possible to find a tweet from someone or other saying almost anything), but if they are then it’s nonsense.

However, it can be said that Brexit is one aspect of the more general fracturing of the liberal international order in recent years - a topic well beyond the scope of this blog – which has made its response to previous Russian nationalist aggression so ineffective, thus encouraging Putin to this latest act of war. But Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and its annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the limited international reaction to these, both pre-date Brexit.

It can also certainly be said that those campaigning for Brexit contributed to enfeebling the international response to those earlier aggressions. Both Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson used the Crimea annexation as a stick to beat the EU with, claiming that it had unjustifiably provoked Russia by offering Ukraine an Association Agreement.

The TL;DR is that the landscape in Europe has changed more in the last 2 weeks than the last 4 decades. The EU has completely changed shape and direction (and possibly size too ..). Not only is it not "the EU" the UK is in the process of leaving. It's probably going to end up more aligned to the US than the UK could ever have imagined.

It's like that advert: This is the man who put it all on red, and it came up black

And given the clear ties between the Tory party and bad Russian money, "putting it all on red" seems an apt expression.

There is credible evidence that Putin encouraged Brexit, interfering in the referendum in order to destabilise the EU. The fact that he misdiagnosed the outcome of that plan as regards the response to his invasion, as he has misdiagnosed much else, doesn't detract from that fact.
Agreed. I'm just saying a) Putin wasted his money, and b) Remainers arguing the EU kept peace were misguided - that's NATO's business and the UK is as much a part of that as it ever was.
I have a low opinion of politicians generally, and would not wish to defend our own, but I don't think our bozos have put everything on red to quite the same extent as the German politicians did, in plain site, uncontested, with total lack of forethought.

b) Remainers arguing the EU kept peace were misguided - that's NATO's business and the UK is as much a part of that as it ever was

Personally I think the EU is as much a fundamental part of peace in Europe as much as NATO. It's not either/or.

The EEC's aim was to ensure countries that had historically been at war traded more easily and therefore were less inclined to shoot each other. Then followed other forms of exchange and cooperation.

The EU is very far from perfect, but the open-mindedness it fostered is important. It didn't lead to peace, but is certainly a factor in it having persisted for decades in Europe.

If you look at how openly the French feel they can criticise the UK now, you can see how Brexit has changed things. It's partly tit for tat after Brexiteer politicians were v rude about EU member states, and partly a new feeling that there is less need for gloves when dealing with a 3rd party state. Probably partly, also, that certain channels for dealing with things have been closed since Brexit.

The threads on here about EU/UK vaccine strategy also showed how quickly hostility flares up and petty insults start being bandied about.

Ties are being severed that will be hard to re-establish, and that's not a good thing, however much NATO cooperation there is. The two go together.

@Applesonthelawn

There is credible evidence that Putin encouraged Brexit, interfering in the referendum in order to destabilise the EU. The fact that he misdiagnosed the outcome of that plan as regards the response to his invasion, as he has misdiagnosed much else, doesn't detract from that fact. Agreed. I'm just saying a) Putin wasted his money, and b) Remainers arguing the EU kept peace were misguided - that's NATO's business and the UK is as much a part of that as it ever was. I have a low opinion of politicians generally, and would not wish to defend our own, but I don't think our bozos have put everything on red to quite the same extent as the German politicians did, in plain site, uncontested, with total lack of forethought.

sight

I agree totally with @AuldAlliance last post so see no need to repeat it 👍

It's ironic that this war might actually be the catalyst for the EU countries to coordinate defence more closely (as a complement to NATO, not a substitute). I've read that Sweden (and even potentially Finland) is re-considering its defence opt-out.

With the UK out of the picture and therefore no veto the likelihood of an EU army becomes more likely - or rather, like UN or NATO "forces", close coordination between sovereign countries own armed forces.

I don't think our bozos have put everything on red to quite the same extent as the German politicians did, in plain site, uncontested, with total lack of forethought.

I'm more than willing to bet that Germany will recover from their "bets" far better and faster than we will from the Brexit "bet" - they've already triggered major u-turns whilst our bozos haven't even begun to recognise any need to steer a different course.

...sorry, it was Denmark who is reconsidering their defence opt-out and are going to hold a referendum about it.

Sweden and Finland are reconsidering their non-membership of NATO.

Putin is doing a brilliant job at uniting the "West" to fo the very things he was railing against

@prettybird

...sorry, it was Denmark who is reconsidering their defence opt-out and are going to hold a referendum about it.

Sweden and Finland are reconsidering their non-membership of NATO.

Putin is doing a brilliant job at uniting the "West" to fo the very things he was railing against

Yes.

I said that to ds1 earlier...
Putin has managed in less than a week to achieve what Trump failed to do in 4 years! (Increase German NATO commitment)

I'm interested to see which companies continue to put profit before ethics..(I have a loooong shit list....)

@FrankieStein403

> I don't think our bozos have put everything on red to quite the same extent as the German politicians did, in plain site, uncontested, with total lack of forethought.

I'm more than willing to bet that Germany will recover from their "bets" far better and faster than we will from the Brexit "bet" - they've already triggered major u-turns whilst our bozos haven't even begun to recognise any need to steer a different course.

💯

Putin has managed in less than a week to achieve what Trump failed to do in 4 years! (Increase German NATO commitment)

Our old mucker in the US (Beau) said he had reckoned it would take several administrations for NATO to recover from it's Trump fucking.

If nothing else, maybe we can take some heart from the fact that what seems irreversible clearly isn't given the right conditions.

Part of Brexit was predicated on the UK getting closer to Russia (I notice that's quietly been forgotten). Not sure how that's working out.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36629146

In other news it cost me £35 today to half fill my fuel tank in my 1ltr economy car 🚗
2 months ago it cost £40 to fill it

We haven't had our increased energy bill yet from octopus and I'm dreading it.

I'm spending at least £130 pw on food (more like £150) - used to be £80/90.

Dh is getting his tesla in a couple of weeks. It certainly won't be the cheaper option we had hoped.

I'm glad spring is on the horizon but autumn will be bad. Really bad. Expect a GE.

"If nothing else, maybe we can take some heart from the fact that what seems irreversible clearly isn't given the right conditions"

Yes. I take hope from that.

@DGRosetti, I think the EU is more fundamental to peace than NATO.

The lesson of Brexit and its aftermath (the open hostility between the UK and France, the bickering, the one upmanship, the threats to renege on international agreements) is that an institution that provides processes for dealing with differences in an orderly way within a framework of law is far superior to countries taking potshots and cheap shots at each other across international borders.

That we have come to this point in history is a damning indictment of hawks and hawkish impulses on both sides, the US and Russia.

Neither the US nor Russia has ever had to learn to talk or to compromise as European countries have had to; there was a time when Germany didn't talk much either. The UK decided talking wasn't its thing and left the EU because unlike Germany and France and the small European countries who rely on peace for their economic wellbeing (Denmark, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium, etc) the UK got used to relying on firepower and never lost its taste for it.

I hope this episode won't vindicate the hawks and the Brexiteers, but I suspect this is the narrative that Johnson will push - what good is the EU when push comes to shove/ in the end all that matters is that your friends are in Washington/ talking is a waste of time.

One local petrol station near us had diesel at £1.76!

Seems a bit rich that John Bercow is found to be a bully and denied a parliamentary pass, but Patel gets off with a light slap on the wrist. They accuse him of being a serial liar but one is our PM. Was this investigation a stitch up?

I wonder how our Brexiters are feeling now, with countries applying to be EU members? Truss of course is bigging up NATO and pretending like a true Brexiter that the EU never existed. We were assured that it was a lost cause but these countries don't seem to think so. I don't see any of them applying for the Trans Pacific Trade Partnership.

I saw also on the Ukraine thread that Johnson had gone and appointed an ex Remainer - one that he'd taken the whip from - to try to sort out the refugee problem.

He had to give him a peerage first.....

AFAIK, there is irrefutable evidence of Bercow's bullying. Sadly.

But I fail to see why Patel et al. can lie to the HoC and get away with it day after day.

Totally unrelated to Brexit, I've just watched Zelinskyy's speech to the HoC and, amongst all the other emotions it aroused, I really felt for the interpreter. I did a tiny bit of interpreting years ago and it's exhausting and nerve-wracking at the best of times, IME. He was very nervous, unsurprisingly, and had to do direct interpreting for a long time in difficult circumstances, trying to mask his emotions at the same time.

Zelenskyy just made me want to weep. WTF is this world we live in??

@AuldAlliance

AFAIK, there is irrefutable evidence of Bercow's bullying. Sadly.

But I fail to see why Patel et al. can lie to the HoC and get away with it day after day.

Totally unrelated to Brexit, I've just watched Zelinskyy's speech to the HoC and, amongst all the other emotions it aroused, I really felt for the interpreter. I did a tiny bit of interpreting years ago and it's exhausting and nerve-wracking at the best of times, IME. He was very nervous, unsurprisingly, and had to do direct interpreting for a long time in difficult circumstances, trying to mask his emotions at the same time.

Zelenskyy just made me want to weep. WTF is this world we live in??

Yes.

But there is proof of Patels bullying too. And yet there she is. A slap on the wrist (if that)

How is she still in post? (I've been saying that since she was appointed to be fair...)

@AuldAlliance

AFAIK, there is irrefutable evidence of Bercow's bullying. Sadly.

But I fail to see why Patel et al. can lie to the HoC and get away with it day after day.

Totally unrelated to Brexit, I've just watched Zelinskyy's speech to the HoC and, amongst all the other emotions it aroused, I really felt for the interpreter. I did a tiny bit of interpreting years ago and it's exhausting and nerve-wracking at the best of times, IME. He was very nervous, unsurprisingly, and had to do direct interpreting for a long time in difficult circumstances, trying to mask his emotions at the same time.

Zelenskyy just made me want to weep. WTF is this world we live in??

I haven't watched it...I can't bear it

Johnson had gone and appointed an ex Remainer

If nothing else, Johnson appointing thick as mince but Brexit loyal think Dorries or maybe Truss or mean but Brexit loyal think Patel because anyone intelligent would show him up is a big part of the current chaotic mess in responding to the refugee crisis.