Anyone changed their minds

[Baileysforchristmas]

From being a remainer to a Brexiteer on here?

Same here. DH is an NHS consultant as are several of my close friends. Between us we know too many doctors to count.

The NHS has lost many talented European medical staff.

@pabloescobarselasticband

I live in London where there are 1000s of E. European immigrants & not only do we all get along fine, London as a whole voted Remain.

The areas that make fuss about E.European immigrants and immigrants in general are not the major cities with large immigrant populations, who also voted Remain, but provincial towns and areas with with lower immigrant populations.

The use of A&E as GP - is nothing to do with immigrants and everything to do with the underfunding of the NHS which means insufficient numbers of GPs. In other countries the number of GPs per head is much higher.

[quote TatianaBis]@PersimmonTree

It is not trade that is unequal within the EU, all member countries operate on precisely the same trading rules. There are different national economies and taxation systems, and some are wealthier & healthier than others. It is not uncoordinated tax systems that lead to bailouts but the economic problems endemic in those countries of which taxation (specifically the tax aversion of S.European states) is only one aspect.

I have never said Euroscepticism is solely le vice Anglais - hard right nationalism is on the rise everywhere. But if you recall the last such wave right wing populism that started 100 years ago: every single regime fell apart. Populism promises falsehoods it cannot deliver. When the truth is discovered, rebellion and disillusion set in. Authoritarianism seems to promise security and protection at first but it doesn’t take long for people get fed up of lack of freedom & curbs to civil liberties.

To break down the referendum vote by age is not to say that no under 50s voted to Leave, simply that they were the minority.

As regards Italy – I said 'hard' right not 'far' right. Five star is hard right populism, the Tories are currently dominated by hard right but they’re not far right.

Lockdown is driving everyone up the wall in every single Covid struck country. It is not particular to any particular nation.[/quote]
I didn't say trade was unequal, at all. I didn't say the uncoordinated tax systems lead to bailouts either.

I basically said that those taxation differences make the EU unfair. The richer countries benefit, those with weaker economies struggle and have to rely on bailouts and the ESM and that seems to be promoting populism and Salvini & Co. Nobody has ever convinced me that the EU in practice is a good thing. In theory, on paper, it's great, I agree. In practice, it's unfair.

As for S Europe being "taxation averse" I have no idea where you got that from. Perhaps you mean the people of those countries are perceived as tax-averse in response to being taxed unfairly left right and centre in return for absolutely shite public services. I can tell you for a fact that Italians are taxed at very high rates, not only personal income tax and local business tax but also in all kinds of stealthy moneygrabbing ways that would have even the British out in the streets protesting (when that was still allowed...) If you are a business owner you even have to PAY to issue an invoice in Italy, you go down to the tobacconist and you buy a crappy little stamp for 2 euros.

Kind of irrelevant whether it's hard right or far right or populism, people in every EU country have made and continue to make crappy decisions at elections, the EU continues to make strange decisions on behalf of its members and I am waiting for someone to show me how things are going to improve.

Anyway, roll on the end of July which is when my central Italian region thinks it will have vaccinated most of its population. Currently they are planning to finish the first round of "extremely vulnerables and over 80s" by the end of April. I genuinely wish them the best of luck with Ursula.

Yes, I can manage without tomato puree but it just happened to be one example where they would normally have had four varieties. Other items, varieties of cheese. Yes, we can manage, but it wasn't what Leavers promised us.

Well, now that we are out of the EU and many EU citizens are going home there will be less demand for GP services, maternity services and plenty of jobs. But since many surgeries are staffed by EU people, they might just close down instead - which mine nearly did, but they managed to make it a branch of a bigger surgery. You might also find that you lose the local maternity hospital too.

I don't know what happened to the daffodil grower who couldn't get people to pick his crop.

It was acknowledged that Tony Blair vastly underestimated the number of East Europeans who wanted to come. He could have put a stay on the numbers as Germany and other countries did, but didn't bother.

I also believe that it may be Boston which did have a large influx of Poles which did keep the maternity hospital open. But in those cases, if numbers of births drop they won't hesitate to shut it.

Nationally though, there is a shortage of GPs. And we should recall that Johnson was boasting about recruiting 50,000 more nurses (which included retaining 15,000 already in post.) Many nursing staff are coming up to retirement age anyway. So it remains to be seen what will happen - but health care is nothing to do with the EU. Underfunding the NHS and recruiting overseas has been a political choice.

@PersimmonTree

Your precise words were:

Countries cannot function optimally within an inherently unequal trading system such as the EU, which has highly uncoordinated national fiscal systems that lead to inequalities and bailouts.

Perhaps your words were not as clear as you thought.

It's not taxation differences that make the EU unfair, nor is it taxation that is causing poorer countries to struggle economically: of course different countries have their own taxation systems, they have all have different economies and different styles of government.

Only a totally politically integrated federalised Europe would have a unified taxation system for the whole bloc, which is unlikely to happen in my lifetime, slash ever.

As for S Europe being "taxation averse" I have no idea where you got that from

From doing business in Italy and Spain. Have you not noticed that tax evasion in Italy is a national pastime? It's partly because taxation is high, but it's also part of the culture. (I'm aware of the tax rates in Italy, btw I pay'em). It's standard for Italian workers insist on being paid half in cash half into their bank account. It's this cash culture that is responsible for the limit on cash withdrawals which came in after the financial crisis.

@Peregrina

Yy. Or they will get bought up by US healthcare companies like the 37 GP practices in North London.

@TatianaBis No I obviously was not clear but, whatever, I come on here during this period of enforced imprisonment looking for conversation and exchange of views about interesting topics, not to have my homework marked point by point. But I do like your use of italics and paragraph spacing.

My experience of Italy doesn't correspond to yours, but again, I'm sure that nobody on here gives a shit, as that has little to do with the point of this thread.

Sorry, OP, for derailing.

Op. Nope.

Haven't RTWT just p1 and p7 as probs yer asking your Q in the wrong place OP.

Just add the vote option and you'll see the disproportion - but nice try.

@TatianaBis,

I am not sure you understood Persimmon’s point. If you did, you replied to something completely different.

It is a fatal flaw of a single currency, single interest rate area to have variable taxation. If you have no FX risk to trading, you will site your factory wherever the net taxation rate is lowest( assuming you can get skilled employees to work there). Ireland, for instance, has hugely benefited from this and it will lead to huge tensions between Berlin and Frankfurt as they try to lure financial services.

Ultimately, an inability to adjust FX and interest rates independently means that fiscal policy is a country’s sole tool of economic management.

Tax is one reason why the UK’s city will remain dominant for the high level jobs. At least in the U.K., someone moving here has to take FX risk, something there was a lot of squealing about when GBP dropped 25% or so (which is kind of the point of having your own currency, it is like car suspension in helping you get over economic bumps).

Frankfurt and Paris...

Fuck trade eh? 40.7% drop in exports to the EU from Dec 2020-Jan 2021. The value of EU exports plummeted by £5.6bn - the sharpest drop since records began.
The head of the ONS said that January wasn't indicative of a wider trend. Companies stockpiled in readiness for congestion due to teething troubles, shifting demand earlier (December 2020's exports were unusually high). DEFRA appear to agree:
www.checkout.ie/supply-chain/british-meat-seafood-exports-eu-recovered-february-126697

Don't forget that the UK locked down at just that time too. I wonder how France being red-listed will affect trade...
fullfact.org/economy/eu-exports-january-2021/

Yes, but where are the reports of increased imports and exports with the rest of the world?

I pay a hell of a lot more tax in Spain than I ever had to pay in England. I'm not sure how you managed to avoid it @TatianaBis

I do get a lot more for my tax money though so am happy to pay it. I worked somewhere once with a terrifying tax inspection raid (nothing to find but they treated us awfully during the search - in front of clients too) - I don't think that people avoid it as much as they did because the crackdowns are scary.

@peregrina,

Are you really expecting to see increased trade during lockdown in a pandemic and within one month of Brexit?

Your agenda is so obvious.

The monthly trade numbers are not given much weight by people who trade, which is why equities and FX did not move on the announcement of the trade numbers. It is not that they are not important per se, but they are very volatile, and prone to massive revisions later.

The PMIs, which I highlighted earlier are considered one of the most reliable leading indicators. And it is interesting that ours are actually higher than those of the EU a month after BREXIT, when the general expectation is that they would be a lot lower. This is one of several reasons why GBP is gradually drifting higher against the EURO.

Your agenda is so obvious.

It ought to be the Leavers agenda. We were promised the easiest deals in history. We weren't promised that the deals would take 10 years to materialise. So you should be the ones asking where the deals are? Why haven't an equal number of deals been signed?

@TheReluctantPhoenix

Some argue that a single currency can only be effective with co-ordinated fiscal policy.

But the EU was always clear that states would manage their own fiscal policies – set their own tax rates, manage tax revenues (& other revenues), set their own spending (until the state requires a bailout). What might work as a tax or a tax rate for Netherlands might not work for Spain.

There’s no question that it’s problematic not to be able to adjust currency & interest rates and depending on fiscal policy, but that has to be weighed with the benefits of being in the Euro - eliminating exchange swings & uncertainty, lower transaction costs, price transparency, increased trade, more inward investment etc.

It’s not true that factories/businesses are automatically located where taxes are lowest: there are many factors that go into siting business. Proximity to materials, proximity to market, skillbase, local labour laws, in the case of finance in particular – where employees actually want to be. Dublin has lower corporate tax but Frankfurt & Paris are more central and preferable for many. I don’t see major tensions erupting – they will all benefit from the UK's massive own goal.

There’s a broader picture behind the issue of ‘inequalities & bailouts’.

Obviously EU states have different states have different sources of income based in terms of goods/services/export. And different economic strengths and weaknesses by which I'm not referring to GDP per capita etc, consumption per capita, living standards & other markers - but competitive advantage.

The Euro rolled along ok until the financial crisis which exposed weakness in the economic fundamentals of individual EU countries. States with less diverse economies were worse hit.

To the states with cheaper local currency before joining the Euro, the euro became expensive. Many factors impacted how states fared but low level of exporting sectors was one, fiscal mismanagement was another etc.

Euro countries with higher inflation rates (Eg S. European states - Spain, Portugal, Greece) were left with large current account deficits, lower exports and lower growth.

How to address these differences/imbalances is what the EU has been grappling with since.

@QuentininQuarantino

I didn't say I avoided it: the opposite in fact.

All of which is very much off the point of Brexit regrets.

[quote TatianaBis]@QuentininQuarantino

I didn't say I avoided it: the opposite in fact.[/quote]
Don’t be touchy - when you said you had the idea that Spain Is tax averse because you’ve done business here I wondered where I was going wrong because in my experience Spain’s been very tax-greedy. I must have misunderstood you.

Not being 'touchy', just stating a fact as I had said I pay taxes in Italy.

Yes you did misunderstand - by tax averse I do not mean the government doesn't tax adequately but that the culture is tax avoidant - or rather has been: it's something S. European countries have had to address since the financial crisis.

PMSL "don't see major tensions erupting" 😂 😂 😂

As we sit here until the 30th of fucking April - or September! Who knows - in red zone watching businesses small and large go to the wall while our teenagers lose their minds along with their job prospects.

Britain is well out of it. Unless the vaccine fiasco was deliberately engineered, the EU has just illustrated its total incompetence and that it serves no purpose other than to destroy its economies. Italy France and Germany could have fucked it up perfectly well independently, without getting these transnational timewasters involved.

Don't see major tensions erupting - between Frankfurt, Paris & Dublin wrt financial relocation was the point.

It will be fiercely competitive, but at the end of the day businesses do their research and make their choice.

What Brexiters are generally unaware of is that, globally, the UK is deemed to have demonstrated total incompetence & fucked up its own economy. It is to the EU these countries will now be heading for business now we're not in the SM.