Anyone changed their minds

[Baileysforchristmas]

From being a remainer to a Brexiteer on here?

@Chocolatedeficitdisorder

We plan to rejoin the EU as soon as possible.

Do we indeed?

Did I miss Indyref2? and Brexit2?

Oh I read it all right, and noted that it was published in February, and stated "Official statistics on overseas goods trade in January 2021 are due to be published on 12 March." So I was quoting what was actually published. So in February the Government had tried it's best to trash what the Road Haulage Association had said about a 68% drop in freight and talked about absolute numbers of lorries coming across where the RHA was more concerned with the loads that the RHA were carrying, which from the point of view of moving goods is a better metric.

Well since you said "I have been gradually moving from remain to brexit over the past few years." it makes it sound as though you think a Brexit 2 Referendum did happen. Because whatever a person's position is, it now makes bugger all difference. Those who wanted Brexit have got it. Those who didn't vote for it but have now changed their minds have got lucky. Those who don't like what Johnson has delivered, well, it's tough luck because that's what it is.

Brexit was always a terrible idea which will make us poorer for the future. The vaccine issue is the first and only thing that may be better with us out of the EU. It does not cancel out all the other disadvantages.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@TatianaBis,

That last post of yours was pure hyperbole.

And when Marine Le Penn is leading France, you will see what real bigotry looks like- and it is not pretty.[/quote]
^this!
Thats the trouble that the remainers had in 2016 , they point blank refused to acknowledge or believe the dissatisfaction and resentment that people in the UK were feeling about the EU! Then when they got the shock of their lives in the referendum they then refused to accept it and caused even more resentment. Finally when they knew it was a lost cause and there was no stopping it they labelled everyone who voted for it thick, mislead, racist, liars etc etc! The same people are now howling about the state of the economy because of it and harping on about when we will be able to join again! They actually cannot see that their attitudes are part of the reason Brexit happened and will be the very same reason that a vote to re-join will never go the way they want it to. To be honest though the EU will not want us back now anyway.

You have got your Brexit now, so whatever Remainers thought - enjoy. Covid hasn't helped by wrecking the economy, but since that's a global problem it's potentially wrecked all. Time will tell who comes out of it best, but the blame the EU option for all our ills will have been gone.

I am looking forward to see the rest of the world running in to do those easy trade deals.

From experience of asking Brexiters to outline their grievances with the EU, the usual answer is a list of gripes that have nothing to do with the EU.

Brexiters need to understand two things long term:

1. Countries cannot function optimally economically without easy trade with their closest neighbours, hence global trading blocs. For that reason we will be forced to limp back to the EU. For economic reasons alone we may have to rejoin the SM + CU within 10 years. We cannot trade effectively without it.

1. The socio-demographics most strongly associated with the Brexit vote are a. the lower educated, lower skilled, lower income bracket and b. the over 65s regardless of skill and income bracket.

Once the over 65s are gone, there will not be sufficient support to maintain a national anti-EU stance in the population: Remain is in the majority in all under 50 age groups. Every year more young people qualify to vote, and young people are mainly EU positive. They are also more at ease with multiculturalism and globalism than the over 65s many of whom grew up in a predominantly white English Britain.

In short: there is no question we will go back eventually, the only issue is when. But the EU will not countenance a return until the hard right populism has been thoroughly defeated.

For clarity: the SM and CU can be rejoined without rejoining the EU.

I would not be quite so optimistic as you Tatiana, saying this as an over 65 Remainer, but I would agree that the world view of under 50s is significantly different to that of the older age groups. Things like cheap flights have opened up the world in a way just not thought of to those over about 75. I will say that cheaper travel was opening up the world for the 65 - 75 age group. Back in 1970 - going to Greece for a hen weekend, or Mexico for a wedding? Unheard of!

@TatianaBis,

Your view of economics and politics is that it is a mathematical equation that only idiots cannot see the solution to.

Economists have a really bad track record at predicting. You should read ‘Black Swan’ by Naseem Taleb (who incidentally has a very dim view of the EU project) to see why this type of linear thinking just doesn’t work for complex systems.

The vaccine issue is not a one off. It is symptomatic of why the EU is ineffective. As I said upthread, the first job of any government is to protect its citizens. The EU with all its might and bounty failed to do this. We will see how it’s citizens judge this in upcoming elections.

I do agree - it will need a new political generation before better links are re-forged with the EU, but do remember that many of Johnson's cabinet are in their 40s and 50s. My generation were fed tales of Empire at school, even when we could go home and hear about another country gaining Independence on the news, but that won't have been the case for the 40 year old generation. Of course many of Johnson's gang want the sort of capitalism available in America. (For interest see the thread about American's and health care. For the Rees-Moggs of the world, no problem, they have money.)

We will see how it’s citizens judge this in upcoming elections.

I am not sure that all 27 have elections planned soon.

@Peregrina,

France and Germany are both not far off..

OK , 25 to go.

I would not be quite so optimistic as you Tatiana

I don't consider myself optimistic: rather the opposite. I think it will take a long time for the EU to consider accepting the UK back. Defeating hard right populism may take a generation.

However the economic consequences of Brexit + Covid together may be so dire that we are forced to rejoin the EEA to access SM & CU just to save ourselves. This would not be an ideological 'rejoin', simply a stark, humiliating economic necessity.

In terms of voting demographics Johnson's cabinet's Brexit views are not the representative that (my) age-group. Indeed Johnson's views aren't even representative of his own thinking: Brexit is simply a means to power for him.

Interesting article

www.politico.eu/article/city-of-london-after-brexit/

However the economic consequences of Brexit + Covid together may be so dire that we are forced to rejoin the EEA to access SM & CU just to save ourselves.

Much as the economic conditions were when we belatedly joined the EEC. We could have been in at the beginning, but Churchill was more concerned with the Commonwealth and the 'Special' relationship with the USA. We then set up EFTA and it didn't fully work. Hence the attempt to join later which had to wait until de Gaulle had passed away.

I honestly wouldn't like to predict - I never thought that I would see Communism collapse, White rule end in South Africa or the Good Friday Agreement ending much of the violence in NI. I wouldn't even like to predict whether Scottish Independence will happen.

@TatianaBis

The U.K. have also spectacularly fucked up their handling of the pandemic, just in different ways

Yes lockdown strategy has been far coherent in Germany, France and Italy for example than here.

Test and trace has also worked much more effectively in other countries.

Worth remembering vaccine strategy was not the government's but an appointed crony who happened to be effective. The success is all
due to Kate Bingham, her appointed taskforce + the NHS.

There is no way any government minister would have done such an effective job as Kate.

Personal experince of lockdown in Italy unfortunately it has not be coherent. Our rules change on a daily basis, there is no end in sight for being vaccinated.

The Italexit movement at the latest poll is the highest in favour of leaving Italy at 70% saying they would vote to leave.

We have no help financially from the goverment, no furlough scheme, no business grants.

The south in particular is being massively affect and in our area there is a huge rise in mafia lending money to people to eat/function. In turn intimidation tactics have rocketed with shootings, car fires/bombs. Only reported on a local level.

Without the strong sense of community many people would have starved in the first lockdown.

Many business have been shut to the public for over a year now without any financial help many will not reopen.

We went a month without any prime minister as he resigned over his handling of eu funds. We now have a new one in place.

We cannot leave the house without filling in a special form in the red zone or your fined upto 1000 euros.

It's a mess and having to check weekly at a minimum what your new rules are is a massive drain.

Italy has messed this up big time and it is going to take many years to reverse the damage that has been done financially and mentally.

@TatianaBis

From experience of asking Brexiters to outline their grievances with the EU, the usual answer is a list of gripes that have nothing to do with the EU.

Brexiters need to understand two things long term:

1. Countries cannot function optimally economically without easy trade with their closest neighbours, hence global trading blocs. For that reason we will be forced to limp back to the EU. For economic reasons alone we may have to rejoin the SM + CU within 10 years. We cannot trade effectively without it.

1. The socio-demographics most strongly associated with the Brexit vote are a. the lower educated, lower skilled, lower income bracket and b. the over 65s regardless of skill and income bracket.

Once the over 65s are gone, there will not be sufficient support to maintain a national anti-EU stance in the population: Remain is in the majority in all under 50 age groups. Every year more young people qualify to vote, and young people are mainly EU positive. They are also more at ease with multiculturalism and globalism than the over 65s many of whom grew up in a predominantly white English Britain.

In short: there is no question we will go back eventually, the only issue is when. But the EU will not countenance a return until the hard right populism has been thoroughly defeated.

Loving the unwavering remainer dogmatism, but there are other things to be understood, long-term:

1. Countries cannot function optimally within an inherently unequal trading system such as the EU, which has highly uncoordinated national fiscal systems that lead to inequalities and bailouts. I'm sure you remember what happened to Greece, and similar patterns are evident across the Mediterranean countries. Couple that with the EU's demonstrated inability to assure key medical supplies for all its member states, and people will surely start to question the utility of this union in its current form.

1. Euroscepticism is not a preserve of old British men, it's also widely apparent in the member states with weaker economies. For example 49% of Italians currently want to leave the EU and 70% of them don't trust it, as an institution. In Italy there is a huge debate about the ESM pandemic support fund, which they don't want to accept as it undermines sovereignty and they see it as potentially leading to a Greece situation. Spain and France each have about 37% of the population wanting to leave. So lots of questions there about how the rest of Europe actually sees its Union.

I voted Out but do not fit the profile you mentioned and don't believe I was the only under-65 out of the 16.4 million, so it isn't as cut and dried as that. Brexit (for me anyway) was not about xenophobia, it was about equality and fairness. The EU likes to tell us it offers those things, but it is inherently unfair. See the link below:

www.dw.com/en/cep-study-germany-gains-most-from-euro-introduction/a-47675856

@peregrina,

'OK , 25 to go.'

25/27 nationally, or about 50% of the GDP, or about 40% of the financial contribution to the project.

Says it all really.

Why are you all so hung up on the EU? We left - it's up to Global Britain to forge a new place in the world now.

The UK is no longer constrained by the EU.
What are the up sides you have noticed so far ?
within the UK, not with reference to other countries

@Peregrina,

The EU is still an important trading partner and the countries within it are still our allies and friends (hopefully). Why would I not be interested in it?

You might also have noticed lots of threads about U.S politics. Hell, there is even the odd thread about the Far East.

Some of us spent time in Europe when it was still a collection of nation states and bought onions from the ‘French onion man’, went in French language exchanges etc etc.

Being interested in Europe, European politics and economics is not the sole preserve of those who believe massive trading blocs and a single currency is the only future.

Yes, but many of the Leaver posts are what the EU has done wrong. I haven't seen all that many on what the EU has done right.

BTW it still is a collection of Nation states.