Westminstenders: Disaster Capitalism.

[RedToothBrush]

An 'interesting' week. To say the least.

It has highlighted the purpose, point and weaknesses of the EU. It has revealled that the Irish Border is an ongoing issue which can not be ignored. Not only is it causing shortages in NI but it also reminds us that a zero covid strategy for the UK can not be managed unilaterally; we are not New Zealand.

It shows up the changing geo-politics of leaving. We have applied to join the Asia-Pacific free trade pact just a day after Macron told us to chose out allies and reminded us that geography and history have always tied our fate to France.

The epic fuck up of the EU has lead a rallying cry of support for leaving... but covid is currently hiding much of the reality of the implications of Brexit which will yet come out in the wash.

Brexit and Covid are tied together as conjoined twins of economic disaster though. Once restrictions start to lift, the shit will start to hit the fan. The efforts on where to aportion blame will start but it won't be on Brexit. We've known this for some time. Brexit no longer is relevant. Except of course it is. But who is writing the winner's narrative? Things are as they have always been. There is no squirrel. The squirrel is thinking that Brexit and Covid are separate things when those in charge don't.

In terms of the vaccine suggest, I think its worth reflecting on why it was successful. Johnson played the vaccine procurement like a gambler, who bet on all the horses in order to ensure we got a winner. Throwing the kitchen sink at a problem which shut the entire economy down was always the safe option. Especially when it was also a pretty certain bet that there would be unequal rollout and a shortage when one was found. If you think about it in those terms, it easier to see how this has been a success for the government: if only one vaccine was successful, we'd be grateful we'd invested in so many options. If all the vaccines came in good we'd end up in a good place. It was a win:win strategy, and one that was not that hard to do. We now find that whilst we were cutting the International Aid Budget we were also working on soft power that excess vaccine stocks and production capability bring... I note here its actually much harder to pull off successfully if you are considerably larger like the EU because of the sheer numbers involved - the dynamics always favoured the UK and I think this probably was something the UK was aware of and was worked into strategic planning. Other things will be much harder to get such easy political wins on - not least because they still involve the economics of geography and that being smaller is typically a weakness not a strength in trading - vaccines and supply shortages are the ultimate exception not the rule. The rule is proven by the EU's politicking and the threat of a vaccine trade war.

Thus the Tory Party have seen Brexit and Covid as being intrinsically linked for some time. I don't think everyone else has quite managed to wrap their head around the fact that its near impossible at this stage to disentangle to two because of this mentality.

This current batch of Tories are disaster capitalists after all, and the twin of Brexit and Covid is a gift to their ambition.

I'll just remind you what the goal really is here. Remember Johnson's speech at the Tory Party Conference in October:
www.conservatives.com/news/boris-johnson-read-the-prime-ministers-keynote-speech-in-full

We have been through too much frustration and hardship just to settle for the status quo ante – to think that life can go on as it was before the plague; and it will not. Because history teaches us that events of this magnitude – wars, famines, plagues; events that affect the vast bulk of humanity, as this virus has – they do not just come and go.

They are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change, because we human beings will not simply content ourselves with a repair job.

He is fully signed up to the Cummings/Gove school of thought of burn it down and rebuild afresh.

The idea that he cares about sorting out and repairing the problems Brexit brings, miss the ultimate point: He doesn't want to.

and being extremely blinkered she couldn't see that what the Tory party wanted wasn't necessarily good for the country.
oh, I think she could

By the way (and this might be useful for other posters a long way from their parents)

I have had written confirmation that as a Citizen I'd be allowed in to the US on compassionate grounds (with a negative covid test) and to quarantine at the parental home
and then another negative test and quarantine at home on my return to the UK (allowed in on the basis of residence)

Reassuring to know.
Not needed just yet in my case.

That's good news LQ - in as much as needing to know that is "good" news in difficult circumstances

@bobreeduk
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7h
I can't wait until we can jump on the ferry to Peru to stock up on wine, and pop to Mexico for the Christmas markets... Zany face

@Peregrina

I think 1) Tory Party first (of course)

and being extremely blinkered she couldn't see that what the Tory party wanted wasn't necessarily good for the country.

She didn't give a shit about the country. We can tell this because when she was PM, she didn't give a shit about the country. Certainly not the people who actually voted for Brexit. They were fucked over just as royally as people who didn't vote for it.

Res ipsos loquitor and all that.

I am reminded of the scene from "The Godfather" where Michael confronts Carlo with his treachery ...

just don't tell me she cared about the country ... don't treat me as stupid ...

www.politicshome.com/news/article/exclusive-eu-tells-british-shellfish-traders-that-a-post-brexit-export-ban-is-indefinite-not-temporary
Exclusive: EU Says A Post-Brexit Shellfish Export Ban Is Indefinite, After Government Claimed It Was Only Temporary

The European Union has told the UK shellfish industry that thousands of tonnes of oyster, mussel, clam, cockle and scallop exports are banned from the bloc indefinitely.

British fishers, who had been told by government to expect the ban to last until spring, are warning this will be a fatal blow to their businesses.

PoliticsHome reported last month that wild shellfish caught in most UK waters that were not ready for human consumption — shellfish known collectively as live bivalve molluscs (LBMs) — had been barred from entering the EU.

This shellfish is normally purified or processed in the EU before it is distributed to supermarkets, restaurants and bars. The UK government told affected businesses and PoliticsHome that this ban was set to expire on April 21, when Brussels implemented new animal health legislation.

However, a European Commission official last week wrote to the British shellfish industry stating that the ban, which is impacting shellfish traders in England and Wales in particular, would remain in place indefinitely and would also include farmed shellfish.

Is this Johnson's commitment to being greener? It would replenish marine stocks...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55895276

Mid and East Antrim Council says it has withdrawn staff from Brexit inspection duties at Larne Port due to concerns for their safety.

DUP mayor Peter Johnston said party group leaders had taken the decision on Monday afternoon.

(contd)

This shellfish is normally purified or processed in the EU before it is distributed to supermarkets, restaurants and bars.

So would there be an opportunity to purify or process them in the UK, before export to the EU, or would that still be banned?

If purification is possible Johnson ought to pass the hat round to his wealthy chums and Tory donors to get the UK industry up and running.
(And pigs might fly.)

Looks as if the DUP is once again trying to avoid the appearance of talking out of both sides of their mouths (wrt the threats to the safety of inspectors working at Larne).

I’ve been reading that Hammond interview and am struck by how very presciently events were called on here by so many knowledgeable commentators (not me!).
Truly gobsmacked though by what he says about TM not even realising NI would be a problem until the latter half of 2017 to 2018. He describes it as a light bulb moment. So presumably none of those around her knew or told her either. And it’s not unreasonable, given this, I suppose, to assume that BJ never realised at all, which pretty much explains the position we’re in now.
The other thing that surprised me (still half way through) is that he says that “The Prime Minister listened to David Davis. She liked David Davis, they had a personal chemistry which, frankly, was quite difficult to achieve.” which I think is interesting and baffling in equal measure, and explains a lot about why negotiations went nowhere.

At least TM did belatedly realise. Johnson either didn't or thought he would just renege on the agreement. Which he would have done if he could have got away with it.

Those twats threatening staff at Larne are examples of exactly the kind of shit Brexiteers ignored.
And the EU's recent unthinking stupidity emboldens them too.

And NO ONE need say that NI and GFI wasn't mentioned in the Referendum, because it damn well was.

@Peregrina

And NO ONE need say that NI and GFI wasn't mentioned in the Referendum, because it damn well was.

Definitely the single most overlooked issue.

But circuses and not my monkey spring to mind every time we talk about that subject. Those comments have stayed with me.

Stephen Farry MP @stephenfarrymp
This is my constituency office this morning. Time for people to dial down the rhetoric. Rule of law must be maintained.

wrt the threats to the safety of inspectors working at Larne.
This is how it begins.

Police protecting inspectors
Army protecting police
Fences, walls, watchtowers

There is no chance anyone in this government will recognise yet another tipping point.

What are the chances that when all the UK shellfisherpeople have gone out of business, we see EU shellfisherpeople (who don't need to comply with any paperwork) moving in an fishing UK waters ?

Obviously the UK shellfisherpeople will look on and say "How come they can sell into the EU ?".

And the answer will come "Because they are in the EU"

To which the logical suggestion would be ...

.

This Government doesn't do logic, and a lot of the public will take their cue from them.

Nasty EU stealing all our shellfish.

@Peregrina

This Government doesn't do logic, and a lot of the public will take their cue from them.

Nasty EU stealing all our shellfish.

If that comes to pass, it will be because the UK fishermen all went bust.

Before "the deal" it was suggested that Macron might risk a bad deal for French fishermen initially, but sub them up until the UKs fishermen all went out of business.

With each passing day, it's becoming clearer and clearer - recent spectacular fuck-ups notwithstanding - that the UK-EU deal is a masterpiece of making the UK accept it's own actions.

I'm also starting to think that the "delay" in ratifying it, might had the added advantage to the EU of rubbing the UKs face in it. We've passed it into law and are bound by it. They get to pore over it in exquisite detail. Especially with the Arlene Fosters of the UK insisting Boris basically scraps it .....

I admit, I don't know how a treaty ratified by only one side works. I assume it only becomes law when both parties agree.

@Peregrina

I admit, I don't know how a treaty ratified by only one side works. I assume it only becomes law when both parties agree.

From reporting, it's the norm in international treaties. It's only when it goes wrong it's news.

Wasn't the Canada deal furore about Belgium effectively preventing the EU from ratifying a treaty that had been accepted in principle ?

And if you do a deal with the US (and as far as the UK is concerned this is for information only) then POTUS can make a big show of signing it, but it still has to be ratified by Congress.

Anyway, this is Brexit, so forget about the realities. Becase Brexiteers certainly will.

The main thrust is the appearance of the UK having to abide by a signed sealed and delivered treaty while the other side (in this case the much hated EU) says "We'll sign it off when we have time ..." can't be easy for some to swallow.

I was pleased when TM put DD in charge of Brexit negotiations. As one of the biggest cheerleaders for Brexit I thought "Good, now he can bloody own it".
But I completely underestimated how utterly useless, outgunned and rather thick he is.
The whole project was way beyond his intellectual abilities, and M Barnier ran rings around him.
Poor old Theresa had to step in and do all the heavy lifting herself.
The man was completely useless

@KonTikki

I was pleased when TM put DD in charge of Brexit negotiations. As one of the biggest cheerleaders for Brexit I thought "Good, now he can bloody own it". But I completely underestimated how utterly useless, outgunned and rather thick he is. The whole project was way beyond his intellectual abilities, and M Barnier ran rings around him. Poor old Theresa had to step in and do all the heavy lifting herself. The man was completely useless

The analysis I read not long after A50 was triggered seems as valid now as then.

The second the UK agreed to the EU framework for discussions it was game over. In that respect, Farage was (stopped clock again) right.

And Brexiteers can only rue their own handling of it. They rushed to cash that dud cheque. They called us all traitors. They shut out any assistance from the experts they so hated. They refused to create a consensus. And as a result they were hoodwinked before they'd left the table.

Hubris indeed.

And as for CCTP .... the image of a ship the size and (metaphorical) armament of the UK sloshing around international trading waters is going to make a lot of small nations very nervous. Like the EEA for example. Who'd want the UK rocking up, throwing its weight around and generally spoiling it for everyone.

I can see any organisation we try to join making some very firm rules about expelling troublemakers.

Well
I hope they do DGR - the UK likes to call the same friends , but they are only every interested in relationships complain their terms