Westminstenders: Disaster Capitalism.

[RedToothBrush]

An 'interesting' week. To say the least.

It has highlighted the purpose, point and weaknesses of the EU. It has revealled that the Irish Border is an ongoing issue which can not be ignored. Not only is it causing shortages in NI but it also reminds us that a zero covid strategy for the UK can not be managed unilaterally; we are not New Zealand.

It shows up the changing geo-politics of leaving. We have applied to join the Asia-Pacific free trade pact just a day after Macron told us to chose out allies and reminded us that geography and history have always tied our fate to France.

The epic fuck up of the EU has lead a rallying cry of support for leaving... but covid is currently hiding much of the reality of the implications of Brexit which will yet come out in the wash.

Brexit and Covid are tied together as conjoined twins of economic disaster though. Once restrictions start to lift, the shit will start to hit the fan. The efforts on where to aportion blame will start but it won't be on Brexit. We've known this for some time. Brexit no longer is relevant. Except of course it is. But who is writing the winner's narrative? Things are as they have always been. There is no squirrel. The squirrel is thinking that Brexit and Covid are separate things when those in charge don't.

In terms of the vaccine suggest, I think its worth reflecting on why it was successful. Johnson played the vaccine procurement like a gambler, who bet on all the horses in order to ensure we got a winner. Throwing the kitchen sink at a problem which shut the entire economy down was always the safe option. Especially when it was also a pretty certain bet that there would be unequal rollout and a shortage when one was found. If you think about it in those terms, it easier to see how this has been a success for the government: if only one vaccine was successful, we'd be grateful we'd invested in so many options. If all the vaccines came in good we'd end up in a good place. It was a win:win strategy, and one that was not that hard to do. We now find that whilst we were cutting the International Aid Budget we were also working on soft power that excess vaccine stocks and production capability bring... I note here its actually much harder to pull off successfully if you are considerably larger like the EU because of the sheer numbers involved - the dynamics always favoured the UK and I think this probably was something the UK was aware of and was worked into strategic planning. Other things will be much harder to get such easy political wins on - not least because they still involve the economics of geography and that being smaller is typically a weakness not a strength in trading - vaccines and supply shortages are the ultimate exception not the rule. The rule is proven by the EU's politicking and the threat of a vaccine trade war.

Thus the Tory Party have seen Brexit and Covid as being intrinsically linked for some time. I don't think everyone else has quite managed to wrap their head around the fact that its near impossible at this stage to disentangle to two because of this mentality.

This current batch of Tories are disaster capitalists after all, and the twin of Brexit and Covid is a gift to their ambition.

I'll just remind you what the goal really is here. Remember Johnson's speech at the Tory Party Conference in October:
www.conservatives.com/news/boris-johnson-read-the-prime-ministers-keynote-speech-in-full

We have been through too much frustration and hardship just to settle for the status quo ante – to think that life can go on as it was before the plague; and it will not. Because history teaches us that events of this magnitude – wars, famines, plagues; events that affect the vast bulk of humanity, as this virus has – they do not just come and go.

They are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change, because we human beings will not simply content ourselves with a repair job.

He is fully signed up to the Cummings/Gove school of thought of burn it down and rebuild afresh.

The idea that he cares about sorting out and repairing the problems Brexit brings, miss the ultimate point: He doesn't want to.

Reply from the BBC about my complaint that the UK does not have a free trade deal with the EU.

TL;DR is that because that's what Boris calls is - and what the BBC followed. Then that's what it is.

I note your concerns about accuracy in the piece. The term ‘free trade deal’ has been used in our coverage, this article provides further information: Brexit: What trade deals has the UK done so far? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842) and Brexit: Boris Johnson hails free trade deal with EU www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55435930.

[quote DGRossetti]Reply from the BBC about my complaint that the UK does not have a free trade deal with the EU.

TL;DR is that because that's what Boris calls is - and what the BBC followed. Then that's what it is.

I note your concerns about accuracy in the piece. The term ‘free trade deal’ has been used in our coverage, this article provides further information: Brexit: What trade deals has the UK done so far? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842) and Brexit: Boris Johnson hails free trade deal with EU www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55435930.[/quote]
The EU describes the TCA as incorporating a Free Trade Agreement

The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement consists of

a Free Trade Agreement, with ambitious cooperation on economic, social, environmental and fisheries issues,

a close partnership on citizens’ security,

an overarching governance framework.

ec.europa.eu/info/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en#freetradeagreement

Sad PMK
The actions of "Unionists" at Larne is despicable
but was TOTALLY predicted here at least

I could not but help think that Philip Hammond with his piece was trying to distance himself smartish from the Brexit shitshow. And fair dos - he was a Remainer.

@Peregrina

I could not but help think that Philip Hammond with his piece was trying to distance himself smartish from the Brexit shitshow. And fair dos - he was a Remainer.

But why ? What ambition would he have that would make it exigent ?

Call me cynical, but he has no reputation to lose, and no office to aspire to. What he probably does have is a nice house and life that he wants the Daily Mail (quite rightly) to pay for after pissing on his - and the countries - chips.

www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/brexit-fears-cause-10000-british-pensioners-flee-eu/

Fuck beesniss

www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/beekeeper-in-brexit-row-with-government-over-threat-to-burn-15m-baby-bees/02/02/

A beekeeper trying to bring 15 million bees into the UK says he has been told they may be seized and burned because of post-Brexit laws.

(contd)

15million bees, up in smoke - it's so sad. And infuriating.

Despairing PMK.

to be fair, not up in smoke yet but I don't feel optimistic and clearly nor does the experienced beekeeper / farmer.

@52andblue

15million bees, up in smoke - it's so sad. And infuriating.

...and not great if you're a pagan.

Speaking of which ... growth fucks the planet. Who'd have thunk it ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55893696

Old Nige was spot on about this. Obviously for all the wrong reasons, but nonetheless, it's a weird postive.

The thing is - this is not the EU's rules - this is the UKs new rules ..... so this is completely at the feet of Johnson, Gove et al

(Talking about the bees)

Just tidying up old pictures
and this seemed appropriate

@mrslaughan

The thing is - this is not the EU's rules - this is the UKs new rules ..... so this is completely at the feet of Johnson, Gove et al

(Talking about the bees)

No one cared before we left, so even fewer will now. We're in the "let's ram as much shit down the countries throats as possible so it can be blamed on the EU, not the Tories." mode.

What grace periods ?

And does the UK get to unilaterally "extend" them ?

Or are we headed for a date in court ?

www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/penny-drops-for-gove-as-he-admits-border-issues-are-not-teething-problems/02/02/

Michael Gove had a penny-drop moment today after he described border iss “significant” and denied that they were “teething problems”.

The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster addressed parliament to discuss the difficulties that have arisen from the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Calling for an extension of the grace periods currently relaxing some rules he said:

“In the short term there are a number of issues which I would not describe as teething problems – they are significant issues which bear on the lives of people in Northern Ireland, which do need to be resolved.

“We do need to make sure that grace periods are extended, we do need to make sure that supermarkets and other traders can continue, as they are at the moment, to be able to supply consumers with the goods that they need.”

15million bees, up in smoke - it's so sad. And infuriating.

Worse than sad - devastating. Especially considering that bees could be endangered and that we rely on them. And what for? Blue passports, sovereignty, getting rid of EU immigrants in favour of more black, brown and yellow immigrants (a bonus for a minority of Brexit voters) and increasing numbers of businesses reporting that they are likely to be destroyed.

Posted before (about the Eu changing the rules on shellfish leaving the UK fucked)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55903599

but the comments (now closed ) show the dam has burst. You have to really dig for Brexiteers now.

The government promised to continue to "raise the issue" with the EU.

What, you mean that Johnson didn't know what he was signing up to on Christmas Eve and then MPs bust a gut to vote it through before the year end? Haven't they heard the expression a miss is as good as a mile.

Its only 25 pages
did they not read it between May and December 2020 ?
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950601/Northern_Ireland_Protocol_-_Command_Paper.pdf

Oh, silly me.

Thanks to @mrslaughan for signposting the Philip Hammond interview: I see it was from November 2020 and I'd love to know what he makes of how things are playing out.

This is quite the last line!

I think I said at the beginning of this interview that the terrible thing here is that I am pretty sure that, in the end, the one thing I can guarantee is that, whether we have a no deal Brexit or a hard Brexit with a deal, the price, the cost that that imposes on the economy will be pretty much 100% absorbed by exactly the demographic profile that voted Leave and then voted Boris Johnson, having never voted Tory before, in December 2019. I’m pretty sure that is almost exactly the definition of the people who are going to bear the costs of Brexit.

Any thoughts on this Labour leak?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/02/labour-urged-to-focus-on-flag-and-patriotism-to-win-voters-trust-leak-reveals

I’m utterly appalled. I think it will alienate far more voters than it will win over. Such naked cynicism.

I wonder how Lisa Nandy would have dealt with the last year had she won the leadership.

Fucking hell

Curious wording in that article.

Whereas the public is said to care most about the economy, healthcare and Britain leaving the EU, in that order, it sees Labour politicians as sharing only one of those priorities – health – while the Tories are seen as caring most about Brexit and the economy.

Do they qualify caring about leaving the EU? Because I absolutely think it's important but not for the reason they are implying. Did they distinguish between politically engaged remain voters, and Brexiteers?

Labour as the "party of students" rings both true and a kick in the teeth for Lib Dems.

My initial thoughts:

Labour are seen as a Party containing a lot of people who hate the U.K., have pointless arguments about the flag/patriotism, and equate virtue with not wearing a suit.

It's not true but ...

There's a need for nuance but a lot of the time, there's no room for nuance - so you might as well cut to the chase.

For example: I've always thought that a lot of Brexit people loathe the U.K. They hate it, think the U.K. is falling apart, a bit rubbish. And they particularly hate the modern U.K.

And, of course, there is the whole irony of people who swathe themselves in the Union Jack and then preside over measures that threaten the Union and/or don't care.

It's a long, winding argument to have that 'patriotism' doesn't belong to these people / there are other forms of patriotism, and other forms of pride, and ways of taking pleasure in the U.K. within an international context.

And by the time you've laid out the stall for that argument, people have left the room.

Way easier to cut to the chase and just stand in front of a Union Jack occasionally.

All the people who have time and space for that argument can go off to a side-room and have it, and give it the space it deserves.

As for suits - well ...

It's mildly depressing because we've been here in the post-Foot years. It's a bit political Groundhog Day.

Yes, it used to infuriate me when I got YouGov polls and Labour questionnaires that the Brexit option was so open to interpretation. I would always rate it as one of the most important issues, but because I thought it would be catastrophic. I expect it was interpreted as wanting to Brexit to be delivered.

I also find it shocking that the conservatives have maintained their reputation of caring about the economy in spite of all the evidence to the contrary.