Westminstenders: Disaster Capitalism.

[RedToothBrush]

An 'interesting' week. To say the least.

It has highlighted the purpose, point and weaknesses of the EU. It has revealled that the Irish Border is an ongoing issue which can not be ignored. Not only is it causing shortages in NI but it also reminds us that a zero covid strategy for the UK can not be managed unilaterally; we are not New Zealand.

It shows up the changing geo-politics of leaving. We have applied to join the Asia-Pacific free trade pact just a day after Macron told us to chose out allies and reminded us that geography and history have always tied our fate to France.

The epic fuck up of the EU has lead a rallying cry of support for leaving... but covid is currently hiding much of the reality of the implications of Brexit which will yet come out in the wash.

Brexit and Covid are tied together as conjoined twins of economic disaster though. Once restrictions start to lift, the shit will start to hit the fan. The efforts on where to aportion blame will start but it won't be on Brexit. We've known this for some time. Brexit no longer is relevant. Except of course it is. But who is writing the winner's narrative? Things are as they have always been. There is no squirrel. The squirrel is thinking that Brexit and Covid are separate things when those in charge don't.

In terms of the vaccine suggest, I think its worth reflecting on why it was successful. Johnson played the vaccine procurement like a gambler, who bet on all the horses in order to ensure we got a winner. Throwing the kitchen sink at a problem which shut the entire economy down was always the safe option. Especially when it was also a pretty certain bet that there would be unequal rollout and a shortage when one was found. If you think about it in those terms, it easier to see how this has been a success for the government: if only one vaccine was successful, we'd be grateful we'd invested in so many options. If all the vaccines came in good we'd end up in a good place. It was a win:win strategy, and one that was not that hard to do. We now find that whilst we were cutting the International Aid Budget we were also working on soft power that excess vaccine stocks and production capability bring... I note here its actually much harder to pull off successfully if you are considerably larger like the EU because of the sheer numbers involved - the dynamics always favoured the UK and I think this probably was something the UK was aware of and was worked into strategic planning. Other things will be much harder to get such easy political wins on - not least because they still involve the economics of geography and that being smaller is typically a weakness not a strength in trading - vaccines and supply shortages are the ultimate exception not the rule. The rule is proven by the EU's politicking and the threat of a vaccine trade war.

Thus the Tory Party have seen Brexit and Covid as being intrinsically linked for some time. I don't think everyone else has quite managed to wrap their head around the fact that its near impossible at this stage to disentangle to two because of this mentality.

This current batch of Tories are disaster capitalists after all, and the twin of Brexit and Covid is a gift to their ambition.

I'll just remind you what the goal really is here. Remember Johnson's speech at the Tory Party Conference in October:
www.conservatives.com/news/boris-johnson-read-the-prime-ministers-keynote-speech-in-full

We have been through too much frustration and hardship just to settle for the status quo ante – to think that life can go on as it was before the plague; and it will not. Because history teaches us that events of this magnitude – wars, famines, plagues; events that affect the vast bulk of humanity, as this virus has – they do not just come and go.

They are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change, because we human beings will not simply content ourselves with a repair job.

He is fully signed up to the Cummings/Gove school of thought of burn it down and rebuild afresh.

The idea that he cares about sorting out and repairing the problems Brexit brings, miss the ultimate point: He doesn't want to.

PMK as always, thanks for the new thread

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twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1355908210138505216?s=21

James O'Brien posting a Moody's forecast on Twitter.

Falling house prices expected.

I remember MN being awash with people saying this would be great - they could afford a large Lindon house. (Conveniently forgetting that house prices fall because income has fallen.)

Moody's pointing out that it will be Housing Associations that bear the brunt of this.

Much former 'council' housing in London is now HA. So I think the impact of this may well have implications for housing the most vulnerable.

It really will be a fire-sale, won't it?

Yeah, I can't think where any one might have warned about this...

Any ideas of the uk trying to use art 16 to gain leverage have probably been killed stone cold (which is a good thing) but that leaves NI up shit creek with no way to draw attention to itself either.

RTB, from the previous thread.

Yes, the risk of the UK being hoist by its own petard...

Makes me wonder if it was a case of entrapment, a setup. If yes, then it was quite clever.

Plaice cat king.

Pmk

pmk

Much former 'council' housing in London is now HA.

I think quite a lot found its way into private ownership when those who were originally tenants bought their council property but later sold on. Now often let out by buy to let landlords. So instead of working people having the security of renting from a council landlord they have to take pot luck with a private landlord - some good, some not. There was a vote in Parliament about passing law about making rented properties fit for human habitation - it almost goes without saying that a number of wealthy Tories who rented out property voted against this.

Selling off council properties wouldn't have been so bad if the councils had been allowed to re-invest in new properties - but I gather they weren't.

It's like a death by a thousand cuts. Johnson, Gove, JRM and the ERGs and all Brexiteers finally have their sovereignty but funny how it doesn't feel like it's enriching my life. Or that many other lives either come to think of it.

I haven't heard any news on wonderful new laws better protecting the environment, or moves to help struggling impoverished households, or how the govt is investing in smart young start ups.

The only news I heard in terms of Johnson's new found sovereignty was someone (Mrs Boris?) seemingly giving Kwasi Kwarteng the head's up that border chaos and a pandemic with 800,000 jobs lost suggested that now was not the right time to talk of weakening employment rights.

Maybe I'm not reading the right sources?

I haven't heard any news on wonderful new laws better protecting the environment

That’ll be because the Environment Bill has been delayed, detail from Farming Today last week:

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000rmpw

It’s almost as though they don’t actually care about it.

UK government use of Henry VIII clauses to be challenged in court
Good Law Project seeks judicial review over move to change state aid rules after Brexit without a vote in parliament

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/01/uk-government-use-of-henry-viii-clauses-to-be-challenged-in-court

Even if the Good law project wins - the Tories can still vote through changes with 80 seat majority. But at least they will have to own it. Small comforts and all that ...

It's not just right-to-buy, though Peregrina.

A lot of what we think of as 'council housing' is actually Housing Association in London.

I think one of the few areas in London where this isn't the case is King's Cross, where transfers of stock to Housing Associations was blocked by a Labour Council.

So Housing Associations going bang will have a really shocking effect on the provision of low-cost housing and housing for the vulnerable in London.

(Is this the same in other cities?)

From Jolyon himself:

Hi

In 1539, Henry VIII gained the right to legislate by decree, enabling him to bypass Parliament altogether. And now Boris Johnson, the man who has already tried and failed to suspend Parliament, is taking further cues on democracy from a Tudor King.

On leaving the EU, Henry VIII powers were originally intended to be used narrowly, to make technical changes to the statute book to ensure laws adopted inside the EU made sense outside it. We believe these narrow powers are being abused: Government says it can use them to abolish the entire state aid regime without parliamentary debate. But we think this is constitutionally offensive - and unlawful.

With, as we understand it, no state aid regime in place, without the checks and controls it brings, the door is flung open for Government to provide financial aid that would favour particular industries and companies over their rivals. Given the Government’s tendency to benefit donors to the Conservative Party you may well think we need those rules.

The scrapping of the state aid regime will be the tip of the iceberg.

The Future Relationship Act, presented to Parliament in the dying days of 2020, contains extraordinarily broad Henry VIII powers. Ministers can now rewrite the rules on everything from your rights at work to environmental protections. In fact, it is no exaggeration to state that any area of law touched on by the EU is now within the purview of Ministers. They can even extend their own powers under the Act.

The stakes could hardly be higher.

We believe that the use of Henry VIII powers to scrap the state aid regime is unlawful and we have issued judicial review proceedings. Good Law Project has instructed Hausfeld LLP and leading Counsel Tim Buley QC and Yaaser Vanderman in this challenge. You can read the bundle as filed here.

The Government’s actions undermine Parliament. We at Good Law Project mean, having previously orchestrated the successful challenge to Johnson’s prorogation, to stand guard.

Thank you,

Jolyon Maugham QC
Director of Good Law Project

This action will no doubt cost shed loads of money, so that alone might defeat Jolyon. I look forward to Scotland gaining independence and then we will have somewhere free of the Tory vermin to decamp to.

PMK

The Scottish refugee camp being prepared

I just read this quote on a blog post and it seems to fit Brexit (and unbelievable VI polls)

“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” Carl Sagan.

I remember MN being awash with people saying this would be great - they could afford a large Lindon house. (Conveniently forgetting that house prices fall because income has fallen.)

And also that if they fall in London they fall everywhere, so their own property would be worth less too. Negative equity in the north
particularly could be a significant issue.

According to Moodys 2016 analysis, a 10% fall in house prices would see 10% of borrowers in the north in negative equity compared to 0.03% in the south.

If prices fell 20%, 22% of northern borrowers would be in negative equity compared to 2% of southern ones.

Ok so prices and rates have changed since 2016, but I doubt the picture is significantly different now.

James O'Brien posting a Moody's forecast on Twitter.

Are these the same forecasters that were telling us it was all fine right the way into 2008 ?

Or a different bunch ?

Because, quite frankly, after they fucked up so "badly" in 2008, I really don't know why anyone gives them the time of day. (Another exhibit in my "circle of corruption" case).

prettybird bagsy a nice sunny corner for my tent. Or maybe ballot would be fairer? I don’t mind.

According to Moodys 2016 analysis,

I refer you to my previous answer ....

I have a particular ire for these charlatans, because it was to suck these guys dicks for an AAA rating that George Osborne said "austerity" was necessary. (I remember even if no on else does) It was better for mothers and babies (well 3rd babies) to starve just to have a shiny badge to wear at conferences.

Conferences we now know were dedicated entirely to perfecting the power stance in a 2-day symposium.

Day1: Put one leg here
Day2: Put the other one over there.

(Fun fact, only 23% of Tory party attendees passed the course. And they are now all in the cabinet).

Today I have decided to be mainly jolly cross.

borntobequiet - I'll reserve you the spot just behind and to the left of the arch Also gives easy access down to the patio, aka the cooking area

I will be quite happy with a quiet corner prettybird.

"A series of catastrophic misjudgements and a failure to deliver"

is how the influential German news magazine 'Spiegel' describes the career of Ursula von de Leyen, the President of the European Commission.

In an excoriating article they lay bare her dismal record whilst running various departments of the German Government, and her ability to avoid all responsibility only to move serenely on.

Reminds me of a recent Prime Minister of ours.