Its not a squirrel.
The EU triggered art 16 for gods sake!
There is massive geo-political fall out related directly back to Brexit on this. Including on empty shelves.
Even if only briefly triggered it matters. Arlene has been on Johnson's case to do the same over the issue of NI struggling for goods and supplies from the rest of the country. He has (so far) not listened but its something that does have support with the ranks of the hard Tory Right.
The EU doing this legitimises such an action. The fact it was reversed so quickly may stop it happening again but the EU have lost the moral argument if we were to do the same as they were willing to.
Instead we were given a glimpse of what might happen if we tried that.
The Telegraph is reporting that indeed the Irish Government had no idea it was being considered. And upon finding out deployed the diplomats. We know there were phone calls to the EU and to Johnson. The Telegraph says there was also contact with the White House and the US got on the blower about what the implications of an export ban would be. The US is back in global politics... And it seems they helped sit on the EU and put them back in their box. For now.
But equally if we try the same trick there is a fair bet about what will happen and how it will turn out. So it firmly shuts a door that could have been on the cards.
The crisis is highlighting just how geopolitics changes with the uk outside the EU. Its somewhat destabilised the world order. Disputes between the UK and US are not good. Indeed i believe Macro did an interview / question session with journalists yesterday including the Guardian. They reported that he said that the UK couldn't be half friends with allies and we had to pick who our friends were. He made the point about geography and history and the uk and france being tied together despite our rivalry. Given the change in geopolitics and how we are destabilising the previous status quo and how the vaccine shortage is playing out its an interesting challenge to us.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/30/half-friends-is-not-a-concept-uk-should-decide-who-its-allies-are-says-macron
'Half-pregnant is not a concept': UK should decide who its allies are, says Macron
“What politics does Great Britain wish to choose? It cannot be the best ally of the US, the best ally of the EU and the new Singapore … It has to choose a model,” the French president said, in an interview with the Guardian and a small group of other media.
“But I have the impression the country’s leaders have sold all these models [to the people]. If it decides on a completely transatlantic policy then we [the EU] will need clarification, because there will be divergence on rules and access to markets.
“If it decides to be the new Singapore, which it has once suggested … well, I don’t know. It’s not for me to decide, but I would like good, peaceful relations. Our destinies are linked, our intellectual approach is linked, our researchers and industrials work together … I believe in a sovereign continent and nation states; I don’t believe in neo-nationalism.
This is important. If we want food on the shelves its not just about paperwork and logistics its most definitely about diplomacy too.
And yes it always comes back to Schrodingers Border. Always central to our problem....
This isn't going away once the vaccine crisis fades away. This is the new order of the world and working out exactly how we fit - or don't fit - into it. Trade directly relates to diplomacy.
I have to say that the UK response to the EU’s panic has been spectacularly good. Yes the uk government had played ner ner ner ner, they have been remarkably good and its hard to fault. Perhaps that's a measure of the fear of the ramifications rather than statesmanship. I dont know. But its been largely commendable. Im not going to push my luck with saying that as theres still time to fuck it up or get some sly digs in but so far its ok.
We shall see.
But no not a squirrel.