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Brexit

Westministenders: Biden Time Til The Penny Drops

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 16/01/2021 16:03

Next week sees a changing in the international guard with implications for the UK in a post Brexit world where we are starting to realise we are very much on our own and frozen out.

The government were able to cosy up with Trump much to the EU's distaste, but Biden is a whole different kettle of fish. Assuming of course that things go to plan next week and the USA don't end up with an almighty bloody mess on their hands.

The political landscape change means the US will become much more inward looking to try and sort its own shit out (amongst domestic terrorism and having run out of vaccine supplies with no stock available from Pfizer until June top of the agenda) and what little international diplomacy there is, is highly unlikely to be centred around the desparate needs of the UK.

The EU meanwhile are largely happy with their lot over the Brexit deal and to leave the UK to their fish stew. With the sole exception of Ireland, who strangely enough the EU and US will probably be very willing to help - putting the Irish into a unique bridging position between the two which they can use to capitalise on.

We will be schooled on the benefits of being in the EU the hard way it seems. The Thatcherite dream of frictionless trade has been well and truly krilled off. The future beckons with the beaucratic mess and spiralling cost of haulage to Europe making it financially not worthwhile even for big firms but especially for small businesses. A quick look at the cost of smart phones is revealling, and tells a story. Prior to the 1st you could buy from the EU. Now the only place shipping to the UK is through Hong Kong, with all the extra associated charges and customs. The price has gone up considerably. Already.

The fact that the government are only just starting to stay they are herring about problems and will endevour to resolve them just doesn't cut it. They were told of the issues years ago. They chose to ignore them. They had better things to do. Like go for a nice holiday at their second home in Europe or fancy dinner at an authetic French restuarant. Strangely enough for various reasons these pastimes are currently off the menu its starting to dawn just how we are stuck between a rock and a hard plaice as a consequence.

You didn't need to be a brain sturgeon to see this coming. It is exactly what was predicted. Queues of lorries as post Christmas trade picks up and stock piles run out, but also empty shelves where things like jigsaws, fresh vegetable, cheese, electricals and paper used to be. The sunlight uplands and promise of brexit opportunities are turning out to be a load of old pollocks. It will take years for some sectors to rebalance and adjust. If they make it through and don't end up on the rocks.

It is a turtle disaster for the economy. On top of the covid.

Even the pro-leave fishermen are starting to realise that the deal was a load of carp. And want to dump their rotten langoustines outside Downing Street. Their fish are far from happy and they have finally haddock with the government. It doesn't help that the fisheries minister has openly said she didn't read the deal because she was too busy organising a nativity. Which sums up the whole situation in a perfect way. Its not even incompetence, its total indifference and apathy.

The Penny will drop as the Pound does. We will learn that its better to be a big fish in a medium pond than a medium fish in a huge pond simply because of how the food chain works.

The sharks are slowly circling for Johnson and once the heat is off, and we get to the stage were the messaging doesn't read like 'We want covid to kill you whilst we have a Tory Bunfight' as it doesn't sit terribly well with the public.

The dust is settling and who does Johnson play pin the blame on now? This deal isn't the result of sabotage by remainers. This deal is his and his alone to own. Isolated at No10 Johnson is likely to start to feel increasingly like he has no friends. He has a whalely big job ahead of him to turn things around a plot a new course ahead to the future for HMS Britannia.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
23
ListeningQuietly · 17/01/2021 16:09

FatCatThinCat
Its real.
Its called Demurrage
Its always existed - its the fee to stop importers and exporters arriving without the right papers and just leaving goods inside the customs area.

Back in my day there was at least one lorry seized to pay the outstanding demurrage charges owned by the company

DGRossetti · 17/01/2021 16:11

@Clavinova

Without 90% being plagiarism

I hope DGRossetti is taking note. Grin

You can tag me, don't be shy.

Current AI analysis of all my posts 2018-2020 shows 17% quoted content, with 10% being from outside MN.

ListeningQuietly · 17/01/2021 16:12

FatCat
The rate for HMRC is a lot cheaper than that from Dover Harbour Board for unaccompanied trailers Smile
www.doverport.co.uk/ferry/ferry-information/

DGRossetti · 17/01/2021 16:13

@ListeningQuietly

FatCatThinCat Its real. Its called Demurrage Its always existed - its the fee to stop importers and exporters arriving without the right papers and just leaving goods inside the customs area.

Back in my day there was at least one lorry seized to pay the outstanding demurrage charges owned by the company

I knew it had a word !

I've seen that in code from the 1990s.

So logistics software will need to be imported that can use that as a scheduling criteria ?

Also if HMG didn't charge it, the UK is in breach of WTO rules, if not whatever is in the deal ?

Clavinova · 17/01/2021 16:26

DGRossetti
Current AI analysis of all my posts 2018-2020 shows 17% quoted content, with 10% being from outside MN.

Touchy.

You could have posted a warning with your Guardian link (uncensored quote from Leave.EU's communications director) - ListeningQuietly's link had the edited version. Although, I confess - I did laugh out loud - not the sort of quote I expected to read in a Guardian article. Wink

Clavinova · 17/01/2021 16:27

communications director

TonMoulin · 17/01/2021 16:29

[quote Clavinova]If we see wages rising especially as there will be fewer workers as lots of EU citizens have left

A positive move in my opinion;
13 Jan -
Morrisons to be first UK supermarket to pay minimum £10 an hour.

www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/13/morrisons-to-be-first-uk-supermarket-to-pay-minimum-10-an-hour[/quote]
I very much doubt the eu citizens leaving will make that much difference.

For one, they haven’t all left on the 31st December. This is something that has been slowly happening since the brexit vote. My parents left 2 years ago. They weren’t the first ones either. Some have left it to the last minute or are planning to do so now. But you won’t see a huge drop in people applying for a job.

On the other side.... the current crisis that covid is, thank to the not so good way the government has handled it, means thousands and thousands of people now looking for a job. We don’t know the full extend yet thanks to the furlough scheme but unemployment rate has gone up.

Whcih means wages are more likely to go down than up - despite prices going up.

TonMoulin · 17/01/2021 16:32

The reality of import8mg from the EU, a wine importer experience
twitter.com/daniellambert29/status/1350367078662987777?s=21

So amongst all the struggle this guy is dealing with, I’ve learnt that

  • the government is expecting companies to PAY to have the privilege to pay taxes...
  • the system is faulty
  • but it’s the only part of the HMRC where you dint have a call centre to help you sort out issues. You have to email with a (maybe??) 5 days waiting time for an answer.

That’s not going to help anyone I porting products really. And prices are going to go up and up.

Mistigri · 17/01/2021 16:33

I know it's totally off topic but wtf is wrong with the BBC? On my timeline just now:

BBC: talented but flawed producer dies
Le Monde: Phil Spector dies in prison

Flawed? The guy was a murderer!

Mistigri · 17/01/2021 16:42

So amongst all the struggle this guy is dealing with

I think it's important to emphasise that trade twitter unanimously agrees that wine importer guy was extremely well prepared.

So many small businesses are going to go the wall ... for what?

I don't care how those small businesses voted in the referendum - no one outside of parliament (and their paid amplifiers) actually voted for this Brexit. I am outraged on their behalf.

ListeningQuietly · 17/01/2021 16:46

Mistigri
Headline updated
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55697979
"Jailed music producer"
Too bloody right.
His music was AMAZING but he was a nasty piece of work

ListeningQuietly · 17/01/2021 16:48

TonMoulin
In another of my past lives I worked in the wine trade.
The paperwork has always been onerous
with good reason after a company covered up that they had a dead rat in the tanker that brought in the stuff for bag in box"
but the handling of the new rules is shambolic

ListeningQuietly · 17/01/2021 16:53

I just wanted to pick up on this comment from TonMoulin
That’s not going to help anyone I porting products really. And prices are going to go up and up.
I still have my accounts book from 1987

DH and my treat supper was steak, spinach, baguette and a bottle of red

  • there was no fresh spinach in the shop the, frozen was 79p a bag
  • steak was £4.50 for two of us
  • a bag of mushrooms was 80p
  • the bottle of red was £4
  • baguette was 70p

and this at a time when a 3 bed house in the south east was £30,000
and a decent graduate salary was £12,500

UK food has been supressed in price because the carbon footprint of international trade has been ignored

Clavinova · 17/01/2021 17:01

The reality of importing from the EU, a wine importer experience

To be fair - the wine importer guy in the link does have a heart-shaped EU flag on his profile picture, which indicates a certain viewpoint from the start.

TonMoulin · 17/01/2021 17:01

@Mistigri, I agree.
This guy was on the ball.

I can see in my industry that many companies haven’t so it’s a bit of a shamble. People have been acting as if nothing was going to change. They are now at lost at what to do when, for example, they can’t rely on a U.K. distributor to send products to the eu. Cue for frantic search of an eu distributor that they are struggling to find...

TonMoulin · 17/01/2021 17:05

@Clavinova

The reality of importing from the EU, a wine importer experience

To be fair - the wine importer guy in the link does have a heart-shaped EU flag on his profile picture, which indicates a certain viewpoint from the start.

You mean that having the EU flag on Twitter is the reason why he needs to pay £150/month to do their declarations and pay taxes?!?

Wow I didn’t know HMRC was so on the ball they were giving different taxes depending on your flag on Twitter. Does it work with FB too??

And here I was thinking that we were all following the same tax rules....

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2021 17:06

Daniel Lambert (Wines) @DanielLambert29
Over the past 15 days I have not only been running my company as normal but I have been faced with largest threat to its future since it began in 1992. This is #Brexit & here is my thread on just how bad things are getting. 1/26

Six months ago my business started to prepare for Brexit. We obtained the following licences and accreditations JUST to maintain the status quo. EORI number, RORO badge for Chief, GBRC number, GBWK number, we already had ARWS and DAN accounts. 2/26

All of this took nearly five months a lot of form filling but on the 9th December this was all in place. So I would say whilst we knew Brexit would be a car crash we did not know it was going to be a multiple pile up in the fog with fatalities. 3/26

On January 4th I returned to work being wise enough to have stockpiled just enough so that if we had a bumpy ride in January we would have enough stock to last until February. 4/26

I should add this took a considerable amount of cash flow and management to do this during a lockdown/ pandemic combined with Xmas sales. But we managed. 5/26

On my Return in January I started to use Chief for the very first time. It was not possible to use this system prior to Brexit or necessary as it was very simple to move stock in the EU with minimal fuss and delay with the EMCS system. 6/26

It’s fair to say it worked like clockwork after 40 years of tweaks to get the system just right. But in Brexit Britain we are very much on our own & so this British system (CHIEF) has now got every product the U.K. consumes in its grasp. 7/26

However the problem with CHIEF is that it was built decades ago and was never designed to handle EU imports too! Why would leave a system (EMCS) that works for one that does not? 8/26

A CHIEF declaration (C88) has up to 65 boxes to complete. Some of these are very simple like excise number and parties involved on the import. So basic stuff. Others however are very vague codes. 9/26

CHIEF is there for the Government to collect tax, that is its primary purpose. It’s not there to aid businesses. It definitely hinders business. On this point no debate is required. Most of the other boxes are codes that have zero meaning .10/26

Now unbeknown to me until January all hauliers use secondary software to over write onto CHIEF because is so hard to use. There is currently a 4 month waiting list for new installations of this software which costs £2K all in. 11/26

I have been imputing directly to CHIEF which I should add costs £157 per month to be able to access. Yes thats right folks you have to pay to tell the government how much your going to pay them. The first Brexit dividend. 12/26

Now after 14 days I finally complete my first C88 declaration but noticed I was paying the 3rd countries tariff. Odd I thought to myself I am sure just three weeks ago the U.K. signed an FTA with the EU to make all goods tariff free. So I used my contacts to find out more. 13/26

Now you would think that government would want to make using CHIEF as easy as possible as now there are millions of businesses having to use it. 14/26

So you would think that a call centre would be a good idea right? No wrong, this is the ONLY HMRC system where there is no number to call. Just an email with a 5 day turn around. Remember that when government say they are doing all they can to help. 15/26

So with the knowledge that government are not interested in making Brexit easy for businesses and in many cases businesses are just trying to survive, we have ploughed on regardless. 16/26

Again you would think if there is a FTA, CHIEF would apply it to all imports from that area/ country right? Wrong you have to claim it. Unbelievable! 17/26

Claiming a tariff free status was yesterday’s game with CHIEF. To be fair deep in the CHIEF files I found the notes to apply the codes to the system required (U 110 followed by AP for example) but problem is after triple checking, CHIEF has not been updated properly. 18/26^

So once again I can’t import wine via my own means until I wait for CHIEF staff( normally five working days) for them to advise how to correct the problem and complete the declaration correctly tariff free. 19/26

So what does this all mean for the consumers? Well to supply the U.K. the exporter need to get a Rex document to prove the origin of their stock to the U.K. government (again, unbelievable). 20/26

Then with all the additional costs in Paperwork, time wasted, government fees to tell the government how much your paying them and delays in the supply chain it’s obvious price are upward bound. 21/26

So this is why I have been saying wine per bottle on retail will increase by at least £1 per bottle for mass market products, for niche small batch wines your looking at £1.50 or even £2.00 on the bottle prices. There’s another of those Brexit dividends. 22/26

This government have cocked up Brexit from day one. But I am now 100% sure that choice will reduce dramatically, price will increase dramatically, delays with increase dramatically and the U.K. wide depression is inevitable, and still the government couldn’t give a toss. 23/26

It’s why I will leave this country next year once my kids have finished there education. I am lucky and have a second nationality within the EU thanks to my father. 24/26

But for those that can’t leave I understand why you are angry and with what I can see your about have a lot more taken away from you than just freedom of movement. 25/26

The Tory party is no longer the Tory party. It is UKIP that has assumed control of the Tory party. They goal is clear, to commit economic vandalism and social vandalism on the U.K. whilst ensuring they get considerably wealthier. That is very sad for what was a great country. END

I would just like to say a massive thank-you for all the kind words following my thread. Over 1.2M people have read it so far. I just hope people now understand the pain all importers are dealing with. I hope it gets better but I have doubts. Keep safe.

OP posts:
Clavinova · 17/01/2021 17:09

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2021 17:13

I wonder what the darknet is selling while customs checks are suspended ?

I imagine the most common items will be firearms ? I knew those gun nut YouTube videos from last year would come in useful.

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2021 17:17

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
This is a brilliant thread. I keep talking to people losing their minds battling CHIEF etc. But read the papers? Hardly a word, which is as the govt wants it. Let’s see if weeks 3 or 4 the strains (which are real) cut through. 1/

So little noticed the on Friday Palletways, one of Europe’s largest networks collating and distributing pallets of goods stopped taking any more #brexit orders. /2

This is note sent to customers on Friday...a “very significant blow” says @RHARodMcKenzie given low volumes of traffic post Christmas /3

What reminded me from the @DanielLambert29 thread was that @PalletwaysUK also did their homework before Jan 1, but have been unable to handle sheer weight of incorrect paperwork. @AnnaJerzewska may have insights as to why everyone struggling so much. /4

There are two takeaways here.

One is a point that @ColdChainShane makes, which is that it might be optimistic to assume that biz only makes mistakes once and then get it right - so govt assumption of sharply upward learning curve might be misplaced. /5

The second is that it seems like the only way to learn is by doing - so those businesses that have been staying out of market and using stockpiles may well struggle when they come into the market. The three weeks is prep time/space may not help that much/6

Because what I’m hearing is how darned hard it is to get all the post work to match. The commercial invoices, the CHEDs and Health Certs etc - and if anything is awry then you get stuck. Because if one form is wrong then logically they must all be. Exploding head /7

So as we enter week three you can feel tempers fraying - and as we reported last week with the fasttrack plans for food lorries - the govt knows that tougher days are ahead.

But whether the dam breaks and it becomes “news”, well...tbc on that one. 8/ENDS

AND

Dr Anna Jerzewska @AnnaJerzewska
So many of you have tweeted this excellent Thread at me. Thank you. [Lambert wines thread]

Couple of things to clarify in case you don't know what these systems are /1

Daniel mentions 2 different systems: EMCS used to register movements of excise goods (wine) and CHIEF for customs.

As excise products are subject to additional controls EMCS was used even when we were in the EU. And it still is now. /2

CHIEF is different, it's a customs systems. Reminder, as an EU member we didn't have customs borders with other EU states.

We've now introduced a new customs border so all movements to/from the EU need to be logged in CHIEF AS WELL AS other relevant systems. /3

CHIEF isn't easy to use. Kudos to Daniel for managing to input directly into it. The additional software helps but yes, there is a cost involved. Or you can pay the broker.

Part of that extra admin cost we've been warning about for the last 5 years /4

Another issue is that CHIEF will soon (ish) be replaced by CDS. A new version. So even if you learn how to deal with CHIEF now you'll soon need to re-learn on CDS. /5

And yes, you have to claim the reduced tariff under the UK-EU deal. That's normal.

It's because this reduced tariff is only available for goods that meet rules of origin - which you have to demonstrate. /6

The same way the EU supplier needs to demonstrate their goods need to meet RoOs - hence the Rex number /7

All this, as well as the various codes and abbreviations you need to know to fill in a customs declaration, is totally normal. It's part of trading internationally. But that doesn't mean it's easy. /8

@DanielLambert29's company was well prepared for 1 Jan. They've obtained all the registrations, stockpiled. Done as much as any business could have under the circumstances. /9

But the natural consequence of having a new border is that things that used to be very simple, are now complex and require specialised knowledge. And are only possible provided that all the systems work and are updated. /10

This Thread is an excellent example of how insanely complicated all this is from a business perspective. How it adds to everyone's workload which has to translate into increased costs. For the company and for the consumer. /11

And again, the scary part is that this is an example of a company that's done well.

There are many businesses out there that are far, far behind and are yet to learn about all that. /end

Westministenders: Biden Time Til The Penny Drops
OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 17/01/2021 17:19

@Clavinova

RedToothBrush

So, he's already decided to leave the country next year? I assume he is half French - Lambert?

It’s why I will leave this country next year once my kids have finished there education. I am lucky and have a second nationality within the EU thanks to my father. 24/26

Yes. Cos we are fucking fucked. In case it takes you the next 5 years to work out just how fucking fucked, I'm making sure you are fully aware of how fucking fucked we are.

Even if you don't want to admit how fucking fucked we are it doesn't stop us being fucking fucked.

OP posts:
Mistigri · 17/01/2021 17:22

To be fair - the wine importer guy in the link does have a heart-shaped EU flag on his profile picture

To be fair, you've been conspicuously silent about those leave-voting fishing businesses that are also going to the wall.

Or were they secret remainers/didn't believe hard enough/too Scottish? Eh?

DGRossetti · 17/01/2021 17:23

I'm sure posters here will appreciate this