Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

@TokyoSushi

Oh crap, Laura K has just tweeted that discussions have not gone well, decision by Sunday...

You sound surprised.

I just feel in limbo right now and there not being a lot else to add to the debate of the last four years.

Isn't the average age of a Fox News consumer over 65? Do young people watch news channels?

Just coming on to say FOR FUCKS SAKE

Just make a fucking decision already.

@TokyoSushi

Oh crap, Laura K has just tweeted that discussions have not gone well, decision by Sunday...

I'm trying to steel myself, I really am. But as a small business owner and stuck living here, I'm going to feel gutted by no deal. Absolutely gutted. My DC's future and my business hostage to those utter pricks running the country and the idiots who voted for this mess. I may have to stop reading/watching the news.

I supposed Im just an eternal optimist @RedToothBrush - I could use the line 'not surprised, just disappointed!'

Did anyone expect the decision to go well?
Although it does make me question whether Johnson does actually want a deal, because otherwise he could just have said - bye I'm off to the station for the last Eurostar. But being old and cynical, it's that he doesn't want to be seen to be shafting the UK.

Regardless, he's not going to announce anything from Brussels.

(It's me who is old and cynical. Johnson isn't old in my book. I don't think he's especially cynical.)

@TokyoSushi

Oh crap, Laura K has just tweeted that discussions have not gone well, decision by Sunday...

But a chance to head to the shops before the shit really hits the fan. looking for positives

Mind you just over one month ago, I awoke on the Wednesday and Thursday in despair.......

edition.cnn.com/2020/12/09/business/jim-ratcliffe-grenadier-brexit/index.html

London (CNN Business)Britain's richest man and Brexit supporter Jim Ratcliffe has abandoned plans to build a new SUV in the United Kingdom, dealing another blow to a car industry that has already been battered by the country's exit from the European Union and the pandemic.

@TokyoSushi

I supposed Im just an eternal optimist *@RedToothBrush* - I could use the line 'not surprised, just disappointed!'

I just feel some what resigned to the inevitable tbh. Its been a long time coming.

I ventured into Altrincham last week. First time I've been in a very long time. It was dreadful. So many places which has turned around the death of the high street there just gone. And it was just dead even by mid-week standards.

It just gives me a sense of whats to come in other places and how its going to get a lot worse.

If an affluent place like Altrincham is like that i dread to think what other places are like. Its hard to stay particularly optimistic when faced with that reality.

Hard Times are coming and so few people even want to acknowledge that reality.

Thanks for the thread and analysis Red and of course all the regular posters. Future historians and anyone looking to explain WTF happened could do well to read these threads.

I just feel in limbo right now and there not being a lot else to add to the debate of the last four years sums up how I feel

But also this Just make a fucking decision already put us out of our misery!

Depressing news about the SUV but why are we surprised?
Is it a co-incidence that it's been announced today?

Assuming confirmation of no deal is coming over the weekend, what would be a sensible course of action over the next couple of days? Go to the supermarket and buy all of the cheese?

I was on a zoom call this evening with someone who said 'so Brexit isn't happening then?' I just goggled. That seemed to be what she thinks no deal means.

Interesting about Altrincham, a place I know (well knew, not been there for years) well. You’re right if that’s on it’s uppers, god help elsewhere!

Or if it's Macron who has vetoed the deal I would be more than happy to see Johnson and fellow toffs cut of their noses to spite their faces by boycotting French cheese and wine.

@CrypticQueen

WorriedMutha - a few pages back you asked: How does the UK get out of the grip of populism? Can anyone see the exit route ... I also think about this a lot. The Lincoln Project is Republicans working in the US, obvs (but same issues at the UK) to defeat Trump (get innn!) and Trumpism. They’re wrestling with this exact issue so you might like their podcasts over the next months (and maybe years ) as they try and unravel the causes of populism and how to combat it. The presenters and the research are excellent.

I seldom post but love the discussion on these threads.

I'm guessing that its roots lie in people thinking they have nothing to lose. Inequality has got worse, the gap between rich and poor has grown. They feel like anything is better than this. Everything is more precarious - job security, housing as there is no longer much social housing, renting is very expensive and house prices are insane which makes buying very difficult in many areas of the UK.

No one thinks anything though, either. They think everything will be fine, even when it may not be.

Yes, I too am in what is a prosperous area, but empty shops are appearing all over. Many of which are businesses which have been trading all the time I have lived in the area, so at least for 40 years. No doubt Corona virus has helped to push some over the edge.

Why is anyone paying any attention to what Laura Kuenssberg says. She tweeted this earlier;

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Starmer didn't want to answer the question about whether Labour would back a deal but it sounded very rather like that's what he is preparing to do should an agreement emerge
12:14 PM · Dec 9, 2020·Twitter

I.e. Starmer hasn't said he'll support a deal that hasn't been agreed and he hasn't yet seen.

Is this really what we expect from a supposedly "neutral" journalist?

72 more hours....

twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1336801873836249089?s=21

We have discussed Starmer though - he will be blamed if the Deal is a poor one. Abstention would get it though just with Tory votes, and then it's a Tory Brexit. And if it works, they would be able to take all the credit too.