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Brexit
Original poster

Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

942 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/12/2020 07:55

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

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Peregrina · 09/12/2020 23:07

Maybe Johnson will toss a coin to decide? Oops came down the wrong side, better make it best of three.

wherearemychickens · 09/12/2020 23:15

Both sides want no deal I think but neither wants to be the first to break cover.

HannibalHayes · 09/12/2020 23:16

Yes, but Kuenssberg (i.e. Tory central) wants to try and pin it on Starmer, even though he has literally fuck all to do with it!

tobee · 09/12/2020 23:27

Sky news reporting Speaker says MPs may have to be kept at Westminster til Christmas Eve to get deal through parliament. ConfusedHmmShockGrin

OchonAgusOchonO · 09/12/2020 23:37

@wherearemychickens - Both sides want no deal I think but neither wants to be the first to break cover

The EU really do not want no deal but the UK have made it pretty much impossible for a deal to happen. However, the EU will not agree a deal that crosses the red lines they have laid down from the very beginning.

wherearemychickens · 09/12/2020 23:44

Yes, I was being too brief - the EU want no deal in the sense that for them no deal is genuinely better than a bad deal, and a bad deal is one not on their terms, which it doesn't look like they are budging on and have the negotiating heft to stick to.

LouiseCollins28 · 10/12/2020 00:35

@Peregrina

Maybe Johnson will toss a coin to decide? Oops came down the wrong side, better make it best of three.
Maybe he's eaten 2 dinners!
mathanxiety · 10/12/2020 05:10

pmk

ConiferGate · 10/12/2020 05:23

F

borntobequiet · 10/12/2020 05:35

[quote Jason118]72 more hours....

twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1336801873836249089?s=21[/quote]
Johnson pissed her off. Quelle surprise.

ConiferGate · 10/12/2020 05:41

And if it works, they would be able to take all the credit too

If it works they should take the credit. I’m a remainer and think boris is totally incompetent but if they pull something off it’s certainly not thanks to Labour

TokyoSushi · 10/12/2020 06:09

Morning folks, awake early and stressing slightly at the impending doom.

DrBlackbird · 10/12/2020 07:22

If I try to put my anxiety aside, it's a genuinely interesting dilemma for Johnson. For a man who desires and expects (and needs) to be adored, he can't win here. So whose love and adoration does he want or need the most?

IMO, in his day to day life, those he interacts with on a daily basis will never be happy with a deal. JRM/ERGers would accuse him of selling out with a deal. Rishi, Priti etc will go with whatever he says but are ultimately for no deal. So he'll get more love for a no deal outcome. Strangely enough, I think Gove might be the only one to recognise no deal damage but as we've never seen a principled act from him, there's no reason to expect one now.

The MSM will bend over backwards to sell no deal as a deal to our passive and uninformed public. We've already seen on these very threads how willing the public is to accept this misdirection and lies and to blame the nasty EU for no deal. He might even be lauded in the press for remaining firm to the UK's sovereign principles. The BBC is toothless and sadly the Graun is becoming increasingly irrelevant. So, more love for no deal than a deal. Or at least, protected from no deal hate.

Those who won't love him for no deal are business people. And those of us who realise the economic and social catastrophe is looming but we do not matter to Johnson Must be strange for a group that's historically supported the Tory party to be confronted with a PM who says (and thinks) F**k business. But he's not looking for their love and they've said too little for too long, been divided on Brexit, and what they're saying now is too late too matter. Anyhow, they'll be blamed for not being prepared for no deal. And many in finance would love no deal as huge profits can be made from volatile currency markets.

So really, what I'm saying is that it's going to be no deal. Shit. Well, at least there's two more days to get more food in the freezer...but this really has been the most depressing year. Apart from Biden's win trying hard not to think how old he is.

whitewave · 10/12/2020 07:23

@TokyoSushi

Morning folks, awake early and stressing slightly at the impending doom.
Aren’t we all?
Sostenueto · 10/12/2020 07:35

So talks with EU and Boris the animal broke up last night with no progress made. Well what a surprise ( not)!

GirlsBlouse17 · 10/12/2020 07:46

Didn't Parliament vote to take no deal off the table at some point or have I got that wrong? Although by default it would happen

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 10/12/2020 07:48

Aren’t we all?

I think I'm past that point. I have enough gin to see me through a few months provided i can get tonic today. I have bought half the mozzarella cheese in the North West and thats in my freezer. I have a huge bag of flour and i have catering size tins of passata.

As long as i don't run out of pizza and gin for a while i will stay sane. I have a roof over my head. A great husband and a good bunch of friends who live locally.

I think I'm kind of at the point this year of thinking if i wish for or want more, I'm almost being greedy.

Things could be a hell of a lot worse for me. Its not me I'm worried about but there is not a damn thing i can do to stop whatever is about to happen and little i can do to help others.

As i say, things are locked in now. The impact is assured. Its now just 'brace, brace' and wait to see where we crash land before assessing the casualties.

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Original poster
RedToothBrush · 10/12/2020 07:49

@GirlsBlouse17

Didn't Parliament vote to take no deal off the table at some point or have I got that wrong? Although by default it would happen
Johnson put it back on the table.

Cos he's a fucker.

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bellinisurge · 10/12/2020 07:57

Been trying to tell Younger Than Me DH that this feels like Thatcher era did and somehow we got through it. He's massively more despondent and pessimistic than me and wants to leave the country. Having left the country in the middle of Thatcherism I explained it's really hard to do and even harder with kids. What we do is sit it out as best we can and hope our DD's generation fixes it. Or, with her newly acquired Irish passport, she goes wherever the hell she wants when she's old enough.

OchonAgusOchonO · 10/12/2020 08:06

A commentator on the radio just now commenting on von der Leyen's statement. The wording is that a decision on the talks will be made by the end of the weekend, no a decision on a deal. This could keep going next week....

FastMovingLuxuryGoods · 10/12/2020 08:11

I really agree that No Deal is locked in now. The sick lurching feeling in my stomach is pretty much perpetual, but I'm now at the point where I wish they'd just announce it; the endless can-kicking is simply delaying the inevitable.

Yesterday I checked the stash that we've building up since all this shite started. We worked through a lot of it in the early days of coronvirus but have slowly built it back up. Part of me is glad it's there, part of me wants to cry whenever I see it - how has it come to this?? As red says, we'll be ok - a roof over our heads, safe(ish) jobs, family and friends and a bit of money in the bank to fall back on. But I am boiling with fury that we're facing this utter fucking shitshow and so, so worried for the future of my country and those who aren't as fortunate as I am.

I have followed these threads since day 1. They've been a beacon of sanity. Thanks all.

PawFives · 10/12/2020 08:18

I agree with others, on balance I think it’s No Deal and may well have been for some time, the talks and Johnson going over there are just theatrics to fool the gullible. We can’t stop it, we can only deal with the fallout.

borntobequiet · 10/12/2020 08:28

We knew when we saw there was no cake on that dinner menu.
I'm continually puzzled by the semi-flippant way this is being discussed even on the heftier news programmes, sometimes as though it's a purely theoretical prospect. Maybe the presenters and reporters can't actually believe the evidence of their own ears and eyes and can't believe it's happening. If you listen to recordings of radio news bulletins in the run up to (say) the war, they at least had the grace to sound solemn and portentious... I don't understand why no one is getting righteously angry on air - apart from I think the road haulier bloke and Carolyn Fairbairn of the CBI, both of whom have appeared to be spitting feathers on occasion.
We have been so badly served by the people who should have been holding our politicians to account.

TonMoulin · 10/12/2020 08:29

Someone pointed out that from 1st January people from Britain won’t be allowed in the EU due to Covid restrictions.
Atm we are still benefitting from the free movement within the eu zone. But from 1st jan, whether we will be allowed in will depend of the infections rates. And these aren’t good enough to match the 8 countries that can come in (New Zealand, South Korea etc...).

That’s a small thing but this means more restrictions for me to go and see my parents. Knowing I could go and see them if I wanted to was my ray of sunshine (even if I know I won’t do that until the summer).
😢😢😢😢

Chickenandegg8 · 10/12/2020 08:33

I just can’t believe anyone would carry out such self inflicted economic disaster on their country.
It’s just frightening.
My oh and I work for a company that exports a lot into Europe. Whilst my job should be safe, not sure about oh, even if he keeps his, a lot of the others will lose theirs. So so sad.