Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

The progress mentioned today points to movement from the U.K. That can only have been through some capitulation from the U.K. The EU won’t budge or not in any substantive way. They may concede on small points to show willing but they won’t compromise the single market etc.

There will inevitably be a kickback from the loons, I’m not saying we’re out of the woods. More that the U.K. are out of cards.

We’ve still got a high chance of no deal. It’s that or a deal on the EU’s terms.

*I understand that some rich folk have ‘shorted the pound’ (which I don’t understand) and need Brexit to happen so that whatever it is they’ve done pays out.

Is it enough for the U.K. to be out a few days/weeks for this pay out to materialise?*

There are complicated ways of explaining "shorting" but all it really means in this case is selling sterling on the currency markets in the hope of buying it back cheaper after a no deal Brexit.

But ... there are a lot of conspiracy stories about how Johnson is being manoeuvred by his hedge fund supporters and most of them are either definitely or probably not true. Hedge funds don't need Brexit to make money. They could make just as much money out of a surprise last minute deal, assuming they had inside information about what was happening. (This would be insider trading and very illegal but that's not to say it doesn't happen).

Sorry for the formatting fail. That was for Phoenix.

Here we are:

Brexit trade deal possible within days after Johnson concession, says EU. Barnier says PM’s acceptance of need for ‘evolution clause’ as standards diverge has unlocked talks

The EU’s chief negotiator said the prime minister’s acceptance of the need to ensure that there was fair competition for British and European businesses as regulatory standards diverged over time had unlocked the talks despite difficult issues remaining.

If the UK wants a seamless access to the single market of the EU – and it’s the largest one in the whole world – they are welcome, but they have to play by our rules.”

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/14/brexit-trade-deal-possible-within-days-after-johnson-concession-says-eu

So would I understand this as being yes, of course the UK can diverge in standards if it so wishes, but anyone wanting to export to the EU will have to abide by EU standards?

It's not really about standards Peregrina - it goes without saying that to export to the EU you have to meet EU rules on product standards etc.

The issue is the potential for the U.K. to undercut EU manufacturers by watering down employment or environmental law, making it possible for U.K. manufacturers to make goods cheaper than EU competitions.

What seems to be being proposed is the use of targeted tariffs as sanctions if an independent body considers that the "level playing field" is no longer level.

Sorry, autocorrect fail - competitions should say "competitors"

@Peregrina - So would I understand this as being yes, of course the UK can diverge in standards if it so wishes, but anyone wanting to export to the EU will have to abide by EU standards?

Yes. Totally unreasonable terms by the EU, aren't they?

The issue is the potential for the U.K. to undercut EU manufacturers by watering down employment or environmental law, making it possible for U.K. manufacturers to make goods cheaper than EU competitions.

Will that happen, or will we just import more Chinese tat made to lower standards? The Chinese had a poisoned baby milk scandal not all that long ago. Is that what people really want?

[quote OchonAgusOchonO]**@Peregrina* - So would I understand this as being yes, of course the UK can diverge in standards if it so wishes, but anyone wanting to export to the EU will have to abide by EU standards?*

Yes. Totally unreasonable terms by the EU, aren't they?[/quote]
Exceptionism is a Tory middle name.

But who cares as long as things level out for the good of all really?

Exceptionalism even.

Trade Deal or not, UK will be a Third Country. UK has left the EU despite the transition period. So don't get too excited yet.

Thanks @Mistigri, yes I saw a tweet that alleged that Johnson is in hock to hedge fund backers due to make 8bill from a no-deal. Is this conspiracy theory? Didn’t his sister say he has people leaning on him?

That is corruption if he is in hock to anyone as PM.

But influence in certain circles matters I suppose.

What a cesspit if true. But where are the checks and balances to stop this, if it is a thing

Misti has covered this but - just to reiterate that the EU need to ensure that UK/EU businesses face comparable regulatory burden when trading with the single market.

If the U.K. cuts standards it could become a low cost competitor to the EU. Hence level playing field rules.

Basically U.K. is tied to EU rules even outside the EU if it wants to trade with it.

All of this was known in 2016, so it’s tragic slash comic that the Tories are only getting to grips with at the 11th hour.

@TatianaBis

Misti has covered this but - just to reiterate that the EU need to ensure that UK/EU businesses face comparable regulatory burden when trading with the single market.

If the U.K. cuts standards it could become a low cost competitor to the EU. Hence level playing field rules.

Basically U.K. is tied to EU rules even outside the EU if it wants to trade with it.

All of this was known in 2016, so it’s tragic slash comic that the Tories are only getting to grips with at the 11th hour.

Many like myself know this.

They rely on those who do not, or don't care. Apart from ERG of course.

It is an exercise in jingoism.

Some good news. I gather that California has cast their 55 electoral college votes for Biden and so he is now the confirmed winner. Also good, that Senator Mitchell has quit the Republican party to stand as an Independent. Wasn't he one of the architects of the Good Friday Agreement?

@veeeeh

Trade Deal or not, UK will be a Third Country. UK has left the EU despite the transition period. So don't get too excited yet.

Oh God it will still be a shit deal. It will still be a disaster. And we could still have no deal.

But I have more hope than I did.

@Peregrina

Some good news. I gather that California has cast their 55 electoral college votes for Biden and so he is now the confirmed winner. Also good, that Senator Mitchell has quit the Republican party to stand as an Independent. Wasn't he one of the architects of the Good Friday Agreement?

Not sure which Mitchell you are referring to here, but indeed George MItchell was one of the diplomatic architects of GFA.

My mistake, a different Mitchell, but I am still pleased to see a Republican saying that he can't go along with Trump's standards.

@Peregrina

My mistake, a different Mitchell, but I am still pleased to see a Republican saying that he can't go along with Trump's standards.

We need so many more of them. But slowly in order not to drive a revolution.

I thought that George Mitchell had died? Not googled to check

Will that effect the Senate to add to the Georgia race?

Oh my error George Mitchell is still alive and 87