Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

I'm not convinced Johnson is being driven by the disaster capitalist agenda. The articles cited and his sister's speculation were from Summer 19. Since then he conceded a 3 month extension and he could have walked away with a no deal instead of entering into the WA. Why didn't he?

Johnson is driven almost exclusively by his dick including finding new things to wank over. That's it. I've watched him for years and thought him a vaguely entertaining journalist but not much else. Now I don't think he's a vaguely entertaining journalist.

DGR : iirc, the White Paper proposed something similar to Ireland. Anyone residing in Scotland at the time of independence could claim Scottish citizenship if they wanted it Dual citizenship would be allowed, so they wouldn't need to give up FUKD citizenship (or wherever other country they came from). They would allow citizenship to be claimed by birth up to grandparents. I think there was also another bit about demonstrating a strong link to Scotland (eg not born there but had lived and worked there for a long time even if they were now elsewhere) - but I couldn't swear to that.

Re dual citizenship, they did say it would be up to the "other" country whether they permitted it. They specifically mentioned that UK traditionally allows dual citizenship so that it should therefore not be problem so if it didn't allow dual citizenship with Scotland it would be being deliberately spiteful

Boris has screwed Cornwall. No surprise really.

"Cornish councillor Tim Dwelly -
Boris Johnson promised the people of Cornwall the same investment that had from the EU, he literally put that to them in advance of the last general election and now he's broken his promise. He's used them."

HannibalHayes it just baffles me why anyone is still surprised at Johnson not keeping his word.

In fact, I've been baffled since he became Tory party leader about people diligently speaking about him as if he's some sort of reasonable functioning human being rather than a moral void in a rumpled suit. Journalists like Peston etc. I keep wondering why these seemingly relatively bright seeming people are so stupid on this issue. I still feel confused about that.

DGR - I am certianly becoming more republican - what with Will and Kates I'll thought through tour (what were they thinking - they should know....) and then a trip to the panto last night.

I will recommend independent sage again to everyone - their session yesterday (available on YouTube) while on the one hand depressing, is important for everyone to make informed choices about Christmas.

With regards to people planning ahead - I have one friend who can't financially (part of my stock pile planning is for her), and another who thinks it will be fine as Covid wasn't so bad..... I have tried to explain, but her ears are closed 💁‍♀️- there is no helping some people.

Edwin Hayward Unicorn face 🗡
@ukdomainnames
·
1h
It's easy to see how a silly situation might get out of hand:

1. We deploy gunboats
2. Things get out of hand on the high seas
3. The French close their ports
4. We starve

Alternatively, we could opt not to push over that first domino...

We' ve heard people who know him say that he is intelligent and liberal (Tory style).
The way that he behaves is the complete opposite of that.
So what's happened?
Either it's a health issue, or more likely he's been bought off. He's not acting as an independent agent. He's following instructions.

I feel like I'm watching someone commit actual treason in plain sight, whilst egged on by the rightwing media. It's bizarre.

davidallengreen
@davidallengreen
Brexiters once promised the United Kingdom would put in place a free trade area ten times bigger than the European Union.

The United Kingdom has actually ended up with a free trade area smaller than the United Kingdom – with a trade barrier down the Irish sea.

Had my flu jab this morning.
Excellent work by the local NHS team. Genuinely ultra efficient.

Tree is up, house looks festive.

Do you think the new aircraft carriers will be much use against French fishermen?

Well. Just back from Sainsburys too. Literally could not fit another tin in the utility cupboards. Plus the rather small freezer is full. But have no idea what I'll actually be eating ... maybe tuna and beans?? I seem to have randomly bought anything tinned that will last. .

No one else there was buying tinned food... It is still hard to imagine empty shelves. But I'm taking advice posted here and eventually will work my way through the tuna and beans if somehow, miraculously, the shelves remain full.

@WorriedMutha

The Queen's speech is going to be a real treat this year. I expect she's working on two versions until she knows whether to prepare her subjects for a shitty new year or a really shitty new year.

Some Boris can actually adviser her on.

@MaxNormal

I feel like I'm watching someone commit actual treason in plain sight, whilst egged on by the rightwing media. It's bizarre.

This, exactly how I feel.

@ListeningQuietly

Had my flu jab this morning. Excellent work by the local NHS team. Genuinely ultra efficient.

Tree is up, house looks festive.

Do you think the new aircraft carriers will be much use against French fishermen?

I think one of them is being repaired because it's sprung a leak... www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9026331/Royal-Navys-newest-aircraft-carrier-HMS-Prince-Wales-stranded-six-months.html sorry about the fail clicky link.

Its interesting seeing threads on delivery... everyone is blaming covid. If you ordered in november and your estimated delivery is now 18th Dec, chances are thats not covid.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/12/brexit-stockpiling-causing-10-mile-tailbacks-calais

Brexit stockpiling is causing 10-mile lorry queues and delays of up to five hours in Calais, it has emerged, as hopes of a trade deal fade.

So it took 11 years after the clusterfuck of the Commonwealth to put a King back on the throne.

Will there be an equivalent Restoration for the UK in the EU.

(Prompted because I just caught Professor Alice Roberts on Restoration London, with a weirdly social distancing approach to interviewing experts).

www.channel4.com/programmes/britains-most-historic-towns/on-demand/70449-002

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/12/brexit-stockpiling-causing-10-mile-tailbacks-calais

Brexit stockpiling causing 10-mile tailbacks in Calais
Severe delays as businesses try to get goods into Britain before a potential no-deal Brexit on 1 January

I believe this is also due to the ports gridlock so more goods going by road. I note it mentions Ikea is now a victim of this as well. There's a Uniqlo thread also full of disgruntled customers.

But really shitty news for Remainers

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/12/keir-starmer-winning-over-tory-leave-voters-to-labour-poll

More Leave voters than Remainers have swung from the Tories to Labour since the last election, according to a major polling project that suggests Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, has made some early progress in bridging the Brexit divide.

A large 7,000-strong poll, designed to examine the political changes that have taken place since Labour’s disastrous result, found that the party was showing signs of winning over some of those who backed the Tories last year.

@RedToothBrush

Its interesting seeing threads on delivery... everyone is blaming covid. If you ordered in november and your estimated delivery is now 18th Dec, chances are thats not covid.

Most of the population are really bad at understanding the multiple factors

• every year the ports fill up due to the Christmas rush.
• in the UK for the last four winters, warehouse space has been at a premium due to Brexit preparations by industry and retailers
• in 2020 Covid caused a massive hiccup in the supply chain so the containers are in the wrong place to meet current demand
• cack handed PPE purchasing by the UK government has left backlogs in demurrage areas
• Brexit WILL come to a head this year (because its too late for a CU/SM deal)

any three of those would make life tricky
but the UK has the lot
AND is reliant on the Channel crossing - unlike other countries

AND Kent.

Its a perfect storm.

I really do not like what I'm hearing privately.

I've just got back from the supermarkets. I wasn't the one who pushed the issue. It was DH who has always been much more optimistic than me and taken the piss out of me worrying. His mates have been telling about how shit work is...

Most of the population are really bad at understanding the multiple factors

Sadly there are 3 too many words in that sentence.

I have a little business- it's more a hobby I make a little money from. My impression is people are really feeling the pinch.
My friend who is a single mum - is really feeling it ...... food prices may have only risen slightly but for low income families it's become harder.......and the worse thing is it's only going to get worse in the foreseeable future.

@mrslaughan

I have a little business- it's more a hobby I make a little money from. My impression is people are really feeling the pinch. My friend who is a single mum - is really feeling it ...... food prices may have only risen slightly but for low income families it's become harder.......and the worse thing is it's only going to get worse in the foreseeable future.

If people insist on being poor, they can hardly complain can they ?