Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

Re Johnson and his reported intelligence/liberal Tory. It doesn't matter because he's also a risk taker and endlessly puts himself first with little regard to the consequences. Constantly cheating on partners and lining up the next woman to move onto without much of a care of what he leaves in his wake by all accounts. Happy to have no relationship with (at least) one offspring and fractured (at best) relationship with his 4 children by Marina. Already having affairs after setting up again with Carrie. And that's just in his personal life. Just thinks he can talk himself out of it when necessary.

Didn't he say something like "how am I going to get myself out of this one?" when hospitalised with Covid?

Yep I suppose she should have never left her coke addicted violent husband.....

???

Googled and now I think I understand

In fact, I've been baffled since he became Tory party leader about people diligently speaking about him as if he's some sort of reasonable functioning human being rather than a moral void in a rumpled suit.
Totally agree, and I feel the same way about Trump.

Disturbing that some people saw Trump in US and thought "yes that's the way to go!"

Skim reading a thing about remainer and Brexiteer focus groups in The Times reinforces the idea that people voted for Brexit (and still largely support it) based on "feelings". Arguably that's what people do when they vote on lots of things but it particularly seems to be the case with Brexit. Pointless to say this now but the remain campaign really didn't get that at all. Apart from fear. Obviously Cummings is well known to have played the game brilliantly on that.

Just caught up from the other evening. Thanks all, and thanks LQ for getting messages to BCF. I'm glad she's ok but sorry to hear her activities and routines are a bit curtailed.

Hi BCF if you're reading.

God, it's depressing.

How little so many actually think about how things work in the world around them. How easily they are duped by transparent, dangerous stupidity.

I am ordering a new carpet from a local firm. Many of the ranges come in from Belgium. Oh it will be fine, they said. Normally I would probably by the Belgian one. I chose a U.K. manufacturer.

Another chap, highly capable and intelligent, just shrugged dit off, and said ' oh nations will always trade'

Senior colleagues about 18 months ago scoffed when I said I predicted no deal and possible food riots. Clearly COVID was not on horizon at that point but still.

How I wish it was all different. At least the Americans appear to have seen sense, but that won't help us much.

Buy !

I'm already pissed off about deliveries. Not being in the UK and what with covid, I thought it best to send my family and friends various M&S Christmas hampers instead of presents. Delivered to the door, on a specified day, and nobody at risk from covid.

They were supposed to be delivered this weekend. That's what we paid for. But they haven't been. Got an apologetic email saying that there were problems with suppliers and they'd be delivered as soon as they can.

Fucking brexit.

Words
Lots of people do not follow the full supply chain ...
FWIW
BigChocFrenzy is not lurking.
She has deleted the app and is reading sci fi on her kindle.

To be fair, M&S and the days they say you're item will be delivered have never had much to do with reality.

I hope BCF is still a) cycling by the Rhine and b) has her Lindt drawer full as ever.

All this reminds me of the two referenda in Ireland on the Treaty of Nice

The initial referendum failed (54-46%) in 1981 because of emotions and feelings, and wanting to give the government and the EU a bit of a kick. But once things were actually spelled out, and the population given the facts, a repeat referendum gave a different result (almost 2/3rds yes).

Some people were appalled by this - a vote is a vote is a vote they said. But the vast majority had the sense to actually find out the facts the second time around.

I wonder would similar have happened in the UK if Cameron had had the guts to stay on, research and set out the facts and probable outcomes, and hold a second vote.

Its interesting seeing threads on delivery... everyone is blaming covid. If you ordered in november and your estimated delivery is now 18th Dec, chances are thats not covid.

Combination of shit from different sources hitting the fan.

Covid probably is still a factor - the freight business generally has been pretty badly hit. Freight costs at my work have gone up/ shipment times have extended, and this has nothing (directly) to do with Brexit as most of our business is with Asia and the US.

Brexit is obviously now starting to act as a ratchet, even at container ports, because everyone wants their stuff before 1st Jan.

All we need now is bad weather in the channel to cut off the continent ...

@TurquoiseBaubles - The initial referendum failed (54-46%) in 1981 because of emotions and feelings, and wanting to give the government and the EU a bit of a kick.

Plus turnout was only 32%.

But once things were actually spelled out, and the population given the facts, a repeat referendum gave a different result (almost 2/3rds yes).

It wasn't quite as simple as that. The question in the second referendum was slightly different and included some assurances around neutrality and sovereignty that were issues in the first referendum so the second campaign was able to address those concerns.

Some people were appalled by this - a vote is a vote is a vote they said. But the vast majority had the sense to actually find out the facts the second time around.

Yes. And the government realised they had to run a campaign that communicated the facts and addressed the concerns in the second round.

I wonder would similar have happened in the UK if Cameron had had the guts to stay on, research and set out the facts and probable outcomes, and hold a second vote.

Particularly as the referendum was only advisory.

Those referenda were in 2001/02, I think.

It is what it is, regarding the ports. The storm's breaking and it's time to put the shutters up.

As I can't directly affect negotiations, I am sending up a plea to chance, luck, karma (or the Law of equal and opposite reaction) that when these consequences catch up with Johnson and cabinet on a personal level, we will be able to watch.

Browsing on Mumsnet this evening, there's a definite hint in the new AIBU threads along the line of "let's get together and make the best of it." No. Not a chance will I take this crock of shit gracefully and pretend to be a jolly good sport about it all. If Brexit is predicated on emotion, it's not a luxury confined to one side (Leave). Until they have fucking owned this and found a solution, I am not going to help them out.

Turquoise I think that was 2001, not 1981.

@Tinselette

Turquoise I think that was 2001, not 1981.

Yes. The first was 2001 and the second 2002.

I got married in June 2001 in Dublin which is why it stuck!

Sorry yes, 2001 and 2002, don't know where 1981 came from. Yep, there were a few changes that did make a difference, but in my view the important thing was that the government listened to the people and realised it was necessary to think about it more, and then the people listened to the facts and figures the second time and gave much more thought to the way they voted.

I suppose we are also used to repeat referenda - look at the number of abortion ones we've had. I wonder will any UK government ever have the courage to hold a "will we rejoin the EU" referendum - I suspect hell will freeze over first.

@TurquoiseBaubles

Sorry yes, 2001 and 2002, don't know where 1981 came from. Yep, there were a few changes that did make a difference, but in my view the important thing was that the government listened to the people and realised it was necessary to think about it more, and then the people listened to the facts and figures the second time and gave much more thought to the way they voted.

I suppose we are also used to repeat referenda - look at the number of abortion ones we've had. I wonder will any UK government ever have the courage to hold a "will we rejoin the EU" referendum - I suspect hell will freeze over first.

but in my view the important thing was that the government listened to the people

Yes, absolutely.

Via Telepgraph front page:

BILLIONS IN NO-DEAL HELP FOR FARMERS AND FACTORIES
Four areas of economy identified as those most in need of assistance should talks fail

Cabinet ministers are drawing up a multibillion pound bail out package to bolster industries hardest hit by a no deal Brexit the Sunday Telegraph can disclose.

The proposals, compiled by Whitehall departments, include resilence deals for sheep farmer, fishermen, car manufacturers and chemical suppliers who face trade disruption or being hit with punishing EU tariffs after Jan 1.

I honestly don't know where to start with the lunacy of this. Also. Remember the time we were told there would be no nodeal or no trade disruption and we were scaremongering to suggest it was going to happen.

Now the government are briefing the Telegraph that they will bail out industries fucked by their own policy.

Last night a senior government source said it would test a range of scenarios for no deal, including border disruption, scrambling naval vessels to intercept EU trawlers fishing illegally in UK waters, and issues with the transfer of data between the UK and the bloc

big red flag. data