Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

What worries me is that there is no end in sight for this. When it is said that there will be a few months' disruption, the presumption is that it will only be a few months because during these few months someone will be working to sort things out. But I don't see any plans and indeed the government washed themselves off the responsibility for sorting things out. So there is no way things will improve in a few months because how?

Bloody hell. Soviet style food queues?

@wherearemychickens

God, I really would be in a panic right now reading about all this if I didn't have food stashed everywhere.

How has the panic buying not yet started?! Fair enough if e.g. the container crisis is just being discussed on Loadstar and The Grocer, but it's now in BBC news articles.

The supermarkets have stocked up to protect against panic buying. And at least Tesco has a long term strategy with no deal in mind. A lot of people have extra in precisely due to covid too.

So as long as we don't see gaps in the shelves i dont think most people will start panic buying again.

The problem arises when we get to the last of the fresh deliveries from Europe. This may be around 23rd or 24th. Or Christmas specific products just don't turn up as expected. Other processed goods might disappear from the shelves as they are sidelined in production pre Christmas when everyone is eating other things. All of which people might just put down to Covid Christmas still.

Where it gets interesting is from Boxing day onward.

Remember people have freezers full for Christmas so might have little space ahead of that and might set off for a final shop pre 1st Jan.

If you are paying attention youve already taken action or can't take action or have a plan for the last minute. If you aren't paying attention, you arent going to notice until the very last moment by which time it may be too late.

I do wonder wonder what New Year's Eve will be like in the supermarkets.

Im currently looking through the cupboards trying to weigh up what i might need / what we will definitely use. Lots of list making and stock taking...

I still may not have enough tonic.

@stationed

Bloody hell. Soviet style food queues?

Its possible. Particularly for certain products.

Where you get in the shop to find theres no pizza or microwave meals as if you are missing just one ingredient the whole production line can't operate.

Or fresh produce. Due to delays and short shelflife.

And once all the pasta has been stockpiled you are waiting on the next delivery to get through from Italy (majority of pasta made in italy).

The problem perhaps isnt shortages, but about the impact if certain products are missing from the shelves because we have large numbers of people with a lack of cookery skills or in energy poverty (or both). Combined with price hikes on other items we commonly eat and demand for whats left shoots up.

I kind of hope enough people are actively prepared to take pressure off the supply chains until things are sorted (thereby 'proving my fears wrong').

But yeah say a common ingredient for processed food like dried cows milk is a particular issue then the knock on effects ripple around pretty quickly as it sounds like the food industry hasn't shifted at all from a JIT supply system.

Ds has just realised that the arrival of new stock of Xbox Series X for which he has been eagerly but patiently waiting may well be delayed by Brexit (ie he's not prepared to pay over the odds to get one of the scarce ones available).

He was already very anti Brexit (which you would expect as he's a) Scottish and b) politically informed ) but now doubly so

Prettybird the threads SCREAMING about Christmas presents not arriving on time and how Christmas is ruined are going to be a thing of pain in 10 days time. And lots of open hostility towards delivery drivers.

I don't anticipate a good mood overall come 25th December.

Shops were normal this morning. I think you're right that it might be a different picture once the last imports from Europe come in. Previous experience has taught me that if something is missing, we will all buy something else and that will run out too. It sounds like the supermarkets are prepared at least. They have prepared more than the government has.

Everything absolutely normal in my online Tesco shop this morning (except no smoked salmon, but that was for Christmas Eve anyway). Has nobody noticed what’s going on? My freezers are now full to bursting and I’m as confident as I can be that we’ll be able to eat for a while. Still scared though

Out of strength came forth sweetness.

One tiniest chink of light in all this could be a gentle organic rise in republicanism enough to get rid of that useless institution of the Monarchy - permanently this time.

I'd be curious as to what Scotland might choose when independent ? Would they also become a republic at the same time ? Or would that have to be for another referendum, assuming that the constitution of an independent Scotland looks a bit like Irelands with constitutional changes in the hands of the people not the politicians ?

Doesn't do any harm to have a plan ...

@RedToothBrush

Prettybird the threads SCREAMING about Christmas presents not arriving on time and how Christmas is ruined are going to be a thing of pain in 10 days time. And lots of open hostility towards delivery drivers.

I don't anticipate a good mood overall come 25th December.

Fortunately ds is buying his XBox himself although we might make a contribution towards it and not expecting it for Christmas

Got a few months worth in already, might get a bit more flour for bread making, but that's about it, if the Brexit voting morons want to risk queuing outside in a freezing cold January for a turnip, they're welcome to it.

I have never been this prepared this early for Christmas. I was basically done two weeks ago, which is about a month earlier than normal. I even tried looking for Easter things a week ago 😁. I just want to keep things as normal as possible for as long as possible for my DCs.

@DGRossetti

Out of strength came forth sweetness.

One tiniest chink of light in all this could be a gentle organic rise in republicanism enough to get rid of that useless institution of the Monarchy - permanently this time.

I'd be curious as to what Scotland might choose when independent ? Would they also become a republic at the same time ? Or would that have to be for another referendum, assuming that the constitution of an independent Scotland looks a bit like Irelands with constitutional changes in the hands of the people not the politicians ?

Doesn't do any harm to have a plan ...

The White Paper "Scotland's Future", prepared in advance of the Indyref strange concept that , suggested that initially at least we would continue with monarchy. I suspect that that would the subject of a future referendum.

Lizzie might have to revert to her correct numbering though: Queen Elizabeth I of Scotland

Did our weekly shop this morning. Not much busier than usual, given that it's been getting a little busier each week for a month now.

Nothing obvious out of stock. But it's hard to tell with all the Christmas shit everywhere (Sainsburys).

The only negative was I was tricked into buying a shitty cheese - it said on the front "Hickory Smoked Cheddar", so DW and I thought nice. But upon getting home and reading the small print on the reverse it's "Hickory Smoked Cheddar with chilli jam"

So that's for the **ing bin then.

As a rule I am a libertarian, but putting shit in cheese really should be a hanging offence. It's hard to think of a more heinous crime against taste. Except (obviously) marzipan. And alongside the cheesistas, I would happily string up people who sneak marzipan or almond essence into sweets without listing it as an ingredient. Unless you want to see how far I can spit.

Might as well drift OT now. Not much more I can write about Brexit after 4 years.

Good news from the US about SCOTUS telling Texas to drink their milk.

Briefly chewing the fact over Texit raised another question - and it would need to be agreed between an independent Scotland and the rUK - is citizenship. What happens to future generations born in an independent Scotland ?

I know that Ireland sorted it out with the UK when they became independent, but would the rUK countenance a similar solution ?

I guess I could read the paper, but every post disucssing an independent Scotland adds to the trend

Just put in an online shopping order- managed to get delivery tomorrow.

@BlueBrian

Gun boats won't save the UK fishing industry, without a deal they're stuffed.

Fish merchant who voted Brexit to “take back control of UK waters” says he was “brainwashed”
"The problem, rarely acknowledged by ministers, is that Britons do not much like the fish caught in the UK's rich fishing waters".
A leading fish merchant who voted Brexit to “take back control of UK waters” says he was “brainwashed” after the Marine Management Organisation (MMO) unveiled requirements for exports from 2021.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Ian Perkes of Ian Perkes Fish Merchants Ltd, said he “wish he hadn’t” voted to leave the European Union in 2016, adding that tariffs on exports would be a catastrophe for his business and the fishing boats that supply it.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....brea....nope...HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I think everyone has forgotten what Bozo's sister said; i.e. that he's deeply in hock to the disaster capitalists, and has to deliver them a no deal.

Everything else is optics.

When did she say that? That's depressing.

I was thinking about they this morning and wondering if she was accurate @Hannibal

*that

The Queen's speech is going to be a real treat this year. I expect she's working on two versions until she knows whether to prepare her subjects for a shitty new year or a really shitty new year.

@HannibalHayes

I think everyone has forgotten what Bozo's sister said; i.e. that he's deeply in hock to the disaster capitalists, and has to deliver them a no deal.

Everything else is optics.

In what way? What do they have on him? For the funding(?) to get to PM?

On a lighthearted note, I imagine he is a blackmailer's dream, he can't keep it in his trousers!

It does look like he has been put there to push no deal through, I still don't know what will happen. Isn't he very cosy with a Russian ex-pat (who said the UK were harassing him because his father was in the KGB)? I can't remember his name.

He said himself that he'd rather be dead in a ditch than delay brexit.

It's been known for a long time that he's being funded by disaster capitalists:

bylinetimes.com/2019/09/23/brexit-disaster-capitalism-are-boris-johnsons-hedge-fund-backers-driving-policy/

I think your cheese sounds nice DGR! The only cheeses that I’ve ever not liked are ones with pineapple in and that gingerbread flavour cheese that appears around this time each year to trap the unwary.