Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

@RedToothBrush

BJ did an address to the nation yesterday?

God I'm clearly not paying attention and his prattlings are losing any level of public importance then...

I've not watched the whole thing. It was supposedly aimed at the British people to prepare us plebs for No Deal but was really aimed at the EU leaders who were having a dinner and a meeting last night but failed as they just ignored him

But the excerpts I saw are chilling because of the way he presents it all as a jolly jape

Mail and Express have gone all in on sabre rattling.
twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1337512413374058496?s=21
twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/1337521472085094401?s=21

Sorry don’t know how to attach as photos

For him and his moneyed chums it will be a jolly jape.
The only way you could see any of them becoming destitute would be if they wrecked themselves with alcohol, drugs or gambling.

Yes @prettybird he's presenting it all as a jolly jape. Like when you really don't want to go somewhere/do something and somebody else, in this case Johnson says 'come onnnnn, it'll be fine, it'll be fun, you'll love it once you get there!'

Yes he seems to view it as a Bertie Wooster caper this no deal lark, but there’s no Jeeves to bail him out.

Very scary Indeed. And goodbye to French wine and cheese if you take their boats.

N’inquiète pas, I have enough wine and cheese in my storeroom run a black market operation.

I have some friends in Normandy who could row over in the cover of night with supplies. Sort of Brie Galore.

I can't say how angry I feel about the Mail and Express headlines. When it comes down to it Johnson will shaft the fishermen.

I don't know much about fishing but I gather that considerably more people work in retail than fishing. It definitely appears to have been one area where we genuinely needed each other. We need what the Dutch and Norwegians fish for and southern Europe especially buys What we catch. So we stop French boats fishing, and they refuse to buy our catch? Catch which we are not interested in eating which will be left to rot. Or will it be used up in a glut of cat food?

I don't necessarily mean scary as in starting a war type scary. DH was talking about the cod wars and how Iceland's ancient tugs kept ramming the UK's v expensive destroyers that had to eventually retreat because it was costing too much money to repair them.

More, how talk of using naval ships for the UK to 'stand its ground' feeds into and inflames the populist far right and military rhetoric. In turn, people become increasingly emboldened to say (and act on) what they really think and feel about immigrants, about Jews, about any 'other'.

And if life does begin to really detoriate in the UK i.e empty shelves or empty petrol pumps, then there is all to play for ramping that populist narrative into overdrive to deflect anger away from the true cause.

I did once have a cat who only ate tinned mackerel and rice pudding! So fish wise he would have kept some people in work.

Rice wise, no dice - we can't grow it here.

This whole issue is descending into absurdity.. Rule Brittania, and threats of fish wars. Unreal.

Ah yes- the gunboats to protect the fish

Is this is to distract the public from the real shitshow that is coming?

We're going to be eating well at the Glasgow Refugee Camp, with LQ's chutneys and pickles, my various jams, tablet and sourdough bread, TatiniaBis' red wine and cheese supplies....

Maybe we can get @derxa to supply some lamb

Maybe Johnson's grins and jolly japes come from him thinking about us plebs being left to stare at empty shelves whilst there's a massive hedge fund shorting the pound with his name not on it?

Going to make a sh&t load of money and retire to some tropical island... Or perhaps just Monaco to dine out on fine wines with his good friend Sir Jim.

Like 'ha ha to the lot of you utter idiots believing a single word I've said for the last four years'?

*TokyoSushi

I also think there could be option c) he really thought the EU would cave, they haven't, and now he knows we're in the shit, and doesn't know what the fuck to do, so is just trying to make it all sound like it's going to be jolly good fun*

I certainly wouldn't rule that out.........

@DrBlackbird

I don't necessarily mean scary as in starting a war type scary. DH was talking about the cod wars and how Iceland's ancient tugs kept ramming the UK's v expensive destroyers that had to eventually retreat because it was costing too much money to repair them.

More, how talk of using naval ships for the UK to 'stand its ground' feeds into and inflames the populist far right and military rhetoric. In turn, people become increasingly emboldened to say (and act on) what they really think and feel about immigrants, about Jews, about any 'other'.

And if life does begin to really detoriate in the UK i.e empty shelves or empty petrol pumps, then there is all to play for ramping that populist narrative into overdrive to deflect anger away from the true cause.

Yes you’re absolutely right.

Doing some fag packet calculations.

I think London and Kent are going to have real issues within 3 to 4 weeks just with covid and without considering Christmas. Realistically i think London has to go T3. But i have my doubts as to whether that will happen. The numbers are still too steep. Mass testing in schools isn't going to stop that - and i wonder whether the announcement of it this week is because the government are already thinking the same and want to look proactive even though its a reactionary response.

That does leave us with a situation where we have two crisis hitting London and Kent at once. You have high levels of illness and absenteeism just as you need the extra staff at the borders, in policing etc just as you no deal and potentially have huge traffic and distribution issues. Remember our new system hasn't even been tested yet. A Perfect storm is brewing right there.

And if we no deal if we don't impose WTO tariffs to the EU you end up in despute with other nations over unfair treatment. So thats not an opinion either.

And we are talking about using the navy yo police our waters from the French and not aid a border and supply crisis??? Really? Is that the purpose of the navy ships?

And we are talking about using the navy yo police our waters from the French and not aid a border and supply crisis???

Red there you go again, sounding strategic, forward thinking, and rational. Do any of those words remotely, even one tiny iota, apply to our gov't?

committees.parliament.uk/committee/445/eu-goods-subcommittee/news/137775/uk-not-ready-for-the-end-of-the-transition-period/

The thing is, if Johnson did do some kind of deal, how would he make it look good? Like a victory? A thing worth having?

Still think he's going to No Deal and pretend it's all May, 1940. Britain stands alone!

My blood's just run cold looking at that link gutrot and praying to God that nobody will be stupid enough to try to put live export animals in those queues.

What was the situation with the Irish border again with no-deal? What will happen there?

Tweeted by Rob Powell at Sky News, so the headlines and hype is nonsense.

"WE'LL SEND IN GUN BOATS"

AKA - Four navy patrol boats will carry on doing the same job in January that they are doing now 👇 t.co/sp56He4Bpb

Gun boats = Brexiteer wet dreams. This is an Eton Schoolboy soggy biscuit session only the tuck shop might not have a regular supply.

@AdaHopper

What was the situation with the Irish border again with no-deal? What will happen there?

I think the border is going to be in the Irish Sea and NI will have temporary (six months I believe initially) frictionless access to both EU and UK markets. That gives them time to source suppliers in the South. I THINK. It's all clear as mud really.

Obviously this is hearsay but as the poster says - it’s believable.