Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

Loving your WoRk On tHeRe RTB

There is a point to my annoyingness. All those posts from people going 'but why can't we have that deal' or 'its not fair that the EU is a monolith of a trading block' etc etc reads LiKe ThIS to me.

I am sick of repeating what I've said for four years and being ignored/accused of fear mongering. We will all find out whats going to happen soon enough and how things work in practice.

No point whinging about bullies...

Or maybe despair.

I was an avid follower of these threads (name change) from the referendum till Boris got in. Then I just had to walk away for a while as I felt so utterly, utterly powerless. Respect to those of you who have kept them going.

All I feel is numb acceptance. Aside from continuing to give to food banks and prep a bit myself, there's nothing that I can think of to do to protect my family or community from what's going to happen. It's all in the hands of the powerful, the incompetent and the immoral in the UK and the even more powerful, scarily competent and (I'm really crossing my fingers about this if we find ourselves in the shit) hopefully moral in the EU.

Despair. Frustration. Annoyance.

Yep these are familiar words.

Acceptance? Not really. I just can't do fuck all about it. Apart from stress I'm not bought enough chicken and how am I going to argue this out with DH in the next week about going to the supermarket yet AGAIN.

But I do have a small cheese mountain and a tomato tin tower. And Gin. Fuck tonnes of gin and tonic.

And I do not give two shits about being accused of being 'selfish' for 'hoarding' or 'a remoaner' etc etc at this point. And thats actually liberating in its own right.

@TheElementsOfMedical

Loving your WoRk On tHeRe RTB

I once worked on an implementation of KERMIT in Sperry 1100 assembler where the author had decided to WriTe THe CoDe Like That.

WEiRd.

I used to cite it as the earliest example of my work on the internet - dating back to 1986. Which is amusing when you are interviewed by someone born in 1987 ....

It is liberating, isn't it.

I think I mean acceptance of my own impotence as much of anything else. I can't imagine any reality where I'd 'accept' this government.

If anyone wants a crumb of consolation, my DB was chatting about "Texit" last night with some buddies.

To a man they noted that given how Brexit was unfolding, (they can read it seems) then Texit is doomed forever. They reckon even in a state or drooling Trumpsters (their words) it would be impossible to sell such an act of self harm. And that's before you even contemplate the constitutional hurdles it involves.

However it's fascinating that there appears to be an equivalent Texan mindset ... "We can leave the Union, but still enjoy every single benefit of it without any obligations". People really believe that.

Still it's somewhere to send Farage for a few years. Bet his phone is going to voicemail right now.

Scott Adams summary report of Wednesday evenings dinner ...)

@DGRossetti

If anyone wants a crumb of consolation, my DB was chatting about "Texit" last night with some buddies.

To a man they noted that given how Brexit was unfolding, (they can read it seems) then Texit is doomed forever. They reckon even in a state or drooling Trumpsters (their words) it would be impossible to sell such an act of self harm. And that's before you even contemplate the constitutional hurdles it involves.

However it's fascinating that there appears to be an equivalent Texan mindset ... "We can leave the Union, but still enjoy every single benefit of it without any obligations". People really believe that.

Still it's somewhere to send Farage for a few years. Bet his phone is going to voicemail right now.

Have they been paying attention to US politics or UK politics?

It doesn't sound like it. It sounds like they've completely missed the point about how Brexit and Trump came about.

Incidentally, DH has been known to write 'secret messages' in his code. I do wonder what's written into MNs?!!

Have they been paying attention to US politics or UK politics?

Can't say - just know what I was told. DB lives near the Oakridge labs (where he started work in the US) which might explain something ...

There has been a lot less talk about other countries leaving the EU since they've seen that our exit is not going so swimmingly.

Enjoy the gin RB. I have ordered myself some cheap wine from Portugal, but I think it is stuck on a container ship along with a PPs unicorns.

I am still as much a Remainer, but I wish that Johnson would stop arsing around now. You want No Deal - come out and say so, and then accept the consequences. The problem here, is that how the mass of the population will behave is unpredictable - people complied with corona virus restrictions much more readily than they expected during the first lockdown, so who can say what they may do next year?

I have Californian friends who would be quite happy for California to go it alone. I strongly suspect that they would manage fine if they did.

@SabrinaThwaite

Oh good, an employment agency is now our go-to for official information

That aeroprofessional site Clav kindly provided the link to only covers personal licensing/attestations and even then barely scratches the surface of that little issue.

It's content has pretty much zero relevance at all to current discussion in the last day or two about flight bans etc...

@winterrainydays

Long time lurker here. Is there any truth/likelihood in the suggestion that we will get a last minute 3 month grace period in the event of no-deal to avoid immediate problems in January and give businesses time to prepare?

THe EU is not minded to and has no reason to let the UK keep playing with its willie rather than go to work

@Peregrina

I am still as much a Remainer, but I wish that Johnson would stop arsing around now. You want No Deal - come out and say so, and then accept the consequences. The problem here, is that how the mass of the population will behave is unpredictable - people complied with corona virus restrictions much more readily than they expected during the first lockdown, so who can say what they may do next year?

We've always said its about the Blame Game.

The EU won't give him an inch on it. They will, to the bitter end, stay we are here waiting when you want to come back and talk to us.

Johnson doesn't want to admit no deal. Thats why the Telegraph has started the bullying thing right now, because thats all thats left.

At somepoint Johnson has to say no deal or deal. And he has to deal at somepoint whether its pre or post Jan 1st.

Its all about the optics and blame.

And thats also why I won't give a fucking INCH on that other thread.

I keep thinking have I got enough chicken/cheese/minced beef/tomatoes? Should I get up early to go to the supermarket again?

But I think we probably have enough Italian wine and beer.

At somepoint Johnson has to say no deal or deal. And he has to deal at somepoint whether its pre or post Jan 1st.

Yes, indeed, and doesn't want to take the blame. Tough luck, chum, that is what being a PM is all about.

Tesco (at least in Glasgow) currently has legs of NZ lamb at £6/kg. I've bought two: one for Sunday and one to freeze for my stockpile.

UvdL recording on World at One, her tone of voice exactly the one I would use when explaining something to a recalcitrant teenager with no listening skills.
Presenter asking the questions that should have been asked four years ago in a puzzled tone. And I generally have great regard for Mark Mardell.

I went to Aldi and got lots of lovely fresh things to make the most of it whilst they are still plentiful. I know there will be disruption but still can't completely get my head around it, I'm forgetting March again as it has been back to normal for so long. I guess this is now everyone else thinks everything will be fine.

@Peregrina

I have Californian friends who would be quite happy for California to go it alone. I strongly suspect that they would manage fine if they did.

Never gonna happen, although I guess for other purposes, it's good to keep up the pressure.

Hope it's not a derail, but here's something I caught recently that kinda shows how the UK managed to get Brexit so wrong, and why the media carry the can for not allowing an open discussion ...

I see talks of Texas (and others) seceding from the Union.

Pretty certain I am correct in my recollection that there is currently no
mechanism for any state to leave the union whatsoever ?

Apart from a civil war, of course ?

Not only is there no clear mechanism for doing this, but the implications of such an act are far-reaching and probably not well thought out. For example, if a state actually secedes from the union, that means that the citizens of the state are no longer US citizens and theoretically no longer entitled to any federal benefits. So everyone receiving social security benefits, for example, would lose that benefit. How is that going to work?

Also, any federal offices or facilities in the state would be de-funded,
so any US government employees would theoretically lose their jobs. After all, is there any reason to assume the US would continue funding a rogue state that had seceded? That also means that the new country of Texas would be without real military protection. Now I suppose the state having seceded, they could sort of commandeer or take over any federal facilities in the state like military installations, but where would they get the funding to continue operations? And would whatever military bases remain in the state possibly be enough to defend the state against attack by a foreign country? For example, if, let's say, Mexico decided to invade the state and attempt to annex it on the theory that Texas was once part of Mexico, would Texas have enough military might to fight back?

There are a host of other issues. What about people who have jobs in
other states, which is now another country? Having seceded from the rest of the country, can Texas just assume that the US will allow people to cross the borders freely? Maybe they won't. Theoretically the US passports that are in the hands of Texas citizens are no longer valid at that point, so does the state have the infrastructure to issue its own passports? At minimum it will need to negotiate some kind of border crossing arrangement with the United States. And that's not even scratching the surface of Texas companies who routinely ship goods back and forth to other states.

Secession talk is always interesting (we often hear it in the context of California as well), but rarely does anyone who brings it up really think through all the issues.

DGR

We said where is the money that we get in the rebate for agriculture going to come from.
We said what about the EU citizen living here. And what about the UK ones in the EU. What passport / citizenship do they have to have.
Article 50 was written without any clear mechanism of how to leave the EU.

It may be different, but I don't think its that much more removed as a concept from where Brexit came from. Nor the entire Nationalist movement in Scotland which is surprisingly close to a majority.

@RedToothBrush

DGR

We said where is the money that we get in the rebate for agriculture going to come from.
We said what about the EU citizen living here. And what about the UK ones in the EU. What passport / citizenship do they have to have.
Article 50 was written without any clear mechanism of how to leave the EU.

It may be different, but I don't think its that much more removed as a concept from where Brexit came from. Nor the entire Nationalist movement in Scotland which is surprisingly close to a majority.

We may have said. But no one was allowed to listen.

@notimagain

That aeroprofessional site Clav kindly provided the link to only covers personal licensing/attestations and even then barely scratches the surface of that little issue. It's content has pretty much zero relevance at all to current discussion in the last day or two about flight bans etc...

Ah well, it makes more sense when you realise that the purpose of the C&Ps is not to provide clarification or illumination of the Brexitatious faith, but rather to sow obfuscation in order to cast doubt amongst any wavering unBeLeavers.