Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

@Peregrina

I think once Johnson became PM that people who bothered could have predicted exactly how venal Johnson could be.

I think though that people genuinely thought that Brexit would be done. A friend who I know voted Remain said she would have been tempted to vote Leave had there been a second Referendum to get it done.

It's interesting to ponder how the Brexit divisions could fuck up party politics into the next two decades.

Although clearly the children of miners felt quite happy voting Tory, so maybe memory is overrated ?

Nigel Farage to advise several US states on becoming independent

www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rush-limbaugh-says-conservative-states-are-trending-toward-secession-from-u-s/ar-BB1bOi9y/

The federal government is out of control & doesn't represent the values of Texans. That is why I am committing to file legislation that will allow a referendum to give Texans a vote for the State of Texas to reassert its status as an independent nation. #Texit #txlege

— Kyle Biedermann (@KyleBiedermann) December 8, 2020

...

That makes me feel physically sick @DGRossetti And I thought I was all out of nausea

Well it's an interesting thought. All the mainly Red, Southern and poorer states voting to remove themselves from the nasty nasty United States that's been subbing them up all these years.

It's a weird volte face from appealing to the richer states to dump the losers which is the main theme of Italys separatists though.

"We'd rather be poor than liberal"

@DGRossetti

Nigel Farage to advise several US states on becoming independent

www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rush-limbaugh-says-conservative-states-are-trending-toward-secession-from-u-s/ar-BB1bOi9y/

The federal government is out of control & doesn't represent the values of Texans. That is why I am committing to file legislation that will allow a referendum to give Texans a vote for the State of Texas to reassert its status as an independent nation. #Texit #txlege

— Kyle Biedermann (@KyleBiedermann) December 8, 2020

...

Who the fuck is Farage been paid by? It’s like his aim life is to spread discontent and chaos.

The agreement largely replicates an existing EU-Singapore pact.
That says it all - we spend time negotiating to almost get what we already had.

Trade deals don't have to be static - they can be updated and added to. Yesterday -

"The UK and Canada have today signed a trade agreement in Canada."
"Both countries to negotiate a new, tailor-made UK-Canada trade deal in 2021."

www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-canada-sign-trade-agreement

Not a new one, but doing the rounds again;

Synopsis of UK position

A man in a hot air balloon realized he was lost. He reduced altitude and spotted a man below. He descended a bit more and shouted,

"Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don't know where I am."

The man below replied, "You are in a hot air balloon hovering approximately 30 feet above the ground. You are between 40 and 41 degrees north latitude and between 59 and 60 degrees west longitude."

"You must be an engineer," said the balloonist.

"I am," replied the man, "How did you know?"

"Well," answered the balloonist, "everything you told me is technically correct, but I have no idea what to make of your information, and the fact is I am still lost. Frankly, you've not been much help so far."

The man below responded, "You must be a Brexiteer."

"I am," replied the balloonist, "but how did you know."

"Well," said the man, "you don't know where you are or where you are going. You have risen to where you are due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise that you have no idea how to keep, and you expect me to solve your problem. The fact is, you are in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but now, somehow, it's my fault."

So, the UK is reliant on the EU to ensure aviation safety in the event of ND?

Reciprocal though.

How has it come to this?

This??
"November - EU May Use Aviation as a Stick to Force UK Brexit Compliance."

"The European Commission could institute new restrictions on the UK’s air transport industry in retaliation for the British government’s efforts to circumvent some aspects of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, according to the U.S. government’s special envoy for Northern Ireland, Mick Mulvaney. Speaking during a recent webinar organized by the Institute of International and European Affairs, Mulvaney claimed Irish foreign affairs minister Simon Coveney had told him that the European Union (EU) could use air transport as a means to discourage the UK from using its controversial Internal Market Bill to undermine legally binding agreements covering the border between the UK and Ireland at the conclusion of the Brexit transition period, which ends Dec. 31, 2020."

www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2020-11-05/eu-may-use-aviation-stick-force-uk-brexit-compliance

@ListeningQuietly

I had an email from BigChocFrenzy She says hello from the real world.

Her gym is shut so she is doing weights and zoom classes at home.
Because of the lockdown stuff her local restaurants and cafes are closed.
Because its cold and dark she's not walking as much as she did in the summer lockdown.

But at least she can still move around the continent.
We cannot.

Listening, I was just thinking of BigChoc yesterday. Please pass on good wishes the next time you're emailing.

Over on the 'UK banned from Europe' thread there's a poster who's doing some absolutely sterling trolling. Definitely worth a read.

Hannibal very good...and true.

@QueenOfThorns I thought you'd be interested in the Manchester Evening News coverage the latest Andy Burnham press conference.

He's now talking about the city being broken up into 'zones' for covid and 'there is a natural way of splitting up GM into clusters - there are travel geographies in the north and south.' Though ideally they'd like the whole city out of T3.

He was stressing and advising people to 'shop local' wherever possible to stop spread across the city.

Something to keep your eyes on as you now, in affect have both Andy Burnham and Boris Johnson speculating in a similar way about restrictions being more localised.

Its not Brexit but the two are being deliberately intertwined especially politically and going forwards the issue with the red wall post brexit definitely is going to be one of Johnson's biggest challenges so its worth keeping an eye on this (even if you aren't from Manchester) because its reflective of the geographical fracturing of opinion of MPs and the public and whats to come in the New Year in post transition Britain.

@ArrowsOfMistletoe

Over on the 'UK banned from Europe' thread there's a poster who's doing some absolutely sterling trolling. Definitely worth a read.

Absolute genius

But... the number of drive-by empty-slogan-spritzing hard-of-thinking Leave ploppers is 😱 this late in the game.

@ArrowsOfMistletoe

Over on the 'UK banned from Europe' thread there's a poster who's doing some absolutely sterling trolling. Definitely worth a read.

Oh yes she is excellent!

And because I’m not good at all at trolling like that...

Clav if you didn’t know that aviation was going to be an issue, then I’m sorry but you aren’t really informed. It has been well known for years.
But the the U.K. CHOSE to leave the EU and put itself in the situation where aviation I could become a problem. I would have expected brexiters to have planned fur it and solve it. Not to wait for the EU to take some step to protect the U.K.

what about sovereignty!! The U.K. can’t possibly accept help like this.

So had a big old debate with DH and DS at the dinner table last night! DH and DS still definitely think that there will be a deal because it would be a disaster for the Tories at the next GE (or before) and Johnson wants to be loved by as many people as possible (I.e the electorate) and that he wouldn't to be regarded by history as a failure. Personally I don't think he gives a fuck any more how he's perceived more widely. He wanted to become pm not do the job. He'll bog off to make more money before the shit really hits the fan when no deal has long term effects.

Also, those thinking "how can we do this to ourselves? Surely the government won't destroy the country like this?" People said that about Trump and it's not stopped him. As he now can't be bothered do any work as a president beyond pardoning various villains and executing as many on death row as possible.

Deeply impressed by @zilla1
she is out astroturfing the astroturfers

Sky political journo Beth Rigby off air during the most important 3 months in UK history since WW2...

Hope the meal was worth it.

Been lurking. Nothing helpful to say.

Love to all x

I was after some entertainment- but can't find the thread about not being able to go to Europe after 1st January......

Anyway we know the Brexiteers only considered freedom movement important to stop one way......and they need us, more than we need them, don't you know.....

mrsL
Its on the Covid board.
Its just fab.
If you start at the beginning, Zilla's posts look like she's an astroturfer and then they twist.

I’ve seen Zilla on a few threads lately - very amusing!

On the WTO / USA thing, it’s to do with the Boeing case and that the case was brought by the EU and not individually by the UK.

.....rushes off to be nosey......

It's fabulous. As a result I've wasted way more time on MN than is reasonable today.

Thanks @RedToothBrush I’ve had a read of it. It would be nice if something based on science could be agreed, with the timely input of local leaders this time...

I’m not in a hurry to rush out to the pub personally, but if it’s safe to do so, we have to let those businesses open.

My Christmas shopping this year has been focused on shopping locally, even more since last weekend’s fiasco with all the markets being cancelled

In other news, it looks like the Chief Constable is toast, and rightly so.

Zilla is doing a fabulous job on that other thread, and it gave me a chuckle at lunchtime.

Still, it’s quite depressing how many people are seriously talking about the nasty spiteful EU punishing us for wanting to be treated like a third country ... by treating us as a third country