Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

Military aircraft though will be exempt from civil aviation rules. Still at least if our planes are flying drugs into our country, they can't be bombing the shit out of of others.

I'm really looking forward to the arrival of my unicorns in January.

@TheElementsOfMedical

I'm really looking forward to the arrival of my unicorns in January.

Hope they're not arriving by lorry...

Elements if you look at the 'rona board, you'll find there's a game of Bingo just started...
I've already got Blue Passports in

Dr blackbird - DH is in the finance - they are not happy about no deal or Brexit. Very few in finance will benefit from Brexit and no deal - in fact it makes everything harder.
A very few may benefit from shorting the pound - but that's a drop in the bucket for what the uk Normally generates.....
Disaster capitalist- too actually make money you have to know you can sell the asset/assets down the road. And they have a short term view generally. So a couple of year turnaround- or shorter. This shitstorm is going to effect the value of everything in the uk for much longer than they will want capital tied up......
So yes a very very few Tory donors may make money out of this - but for the most part this is a disaster for the finance industry.

So yes a very very few Tory donors may make money out of this - but for the most part this is a disaster for the finance industry.

There is an acid response that if the finance industry had taken more care to see fairer distribution of the wealth they created, Brexit wouldn't have happened. It's hard to worry too much about the livelihoods of people you read splurging £1,000,000 on office parties when you have to put money in a meter for electric.

UKIP was standing on the shoulders of giant tories.

And if that isn't the truth, that's the truth a lot of people perceived.

(ducks) ...

@Nellee

I'm continually puzzled by the semi-flippant way this is being discussed even on the heftier news programmes, sometimes as though it's a purely theoretical prospect

I thought this whilst watching Newsnight yesterday. R4 has been the same - I think - don’t manage to hear much of the Today programme.

It’s strange. What is going on?

I think Maitlis has been pretty good at cutting off Brexiters when they start bullshitting and it's clear she's done the prep. I've noticed her saying things that I've seen said on Twitter so she's reading stuff and noting it. But, can one person always know every response to every off-the-wall statement from a Brexiter as well as being completely on top of the Covid brief all the time, live on air? Plus, they know the serious Brexiters, not headbangers like Bone and Bridgen, won't go on Newsnight.

But, I get exasperated by Evan Davis's "it's all a jolly little game" tone.

@pussycatinboots

Elements if you look at the 'rona board, you'll find there's a game of Bingo just started... I've already got Blue Passports in

Yeah, I saw that thread. Not going to bother - the Leavers on there are all the drive-by plopping type.

It's not up to the finance industry to ensure a fairer distribution of wealth - that's the governments role...... and I give you the Tories......(yet another example of turkeys voting for Christmas).

And it's not just about taxation - it's about foreign nationals buying property being allowed to buy property in London abs driving up its prices abs the flow in effect.....

It's about London being the money laundering capital of the world by having such slack company laws.... it's why the Russians, Middle Easterns and wealthy Asians live parking money here.... but that has the effect of making the local populace poorer.

As for £1m pound parties - they are pretty rare... that's why they make the headlines - and I suspect Johnson has attended his fair share of such parties - but not the finance industries expense.... the ones he attended were hosted by oligarchs- and media tycoons (which is why they didn't make the headlines) those are the ones that are to blame...

It's not up to the finance industry to ensure a fairer distribution of wealth - that's the governments role...... and I give you the Tories......(yet another example of turkeys voting for Christmas).

I bet a lot of people in the finance industry happily voted Tory at the time - and were rather smug about it. After all someone did.

I'm not agreeing with anything. But you need to factor in why some people voted Leave - enough to tip from 49% to 51%. And that's a reason, I believe.

So even now, as the City starts closing down, some Leavers will be happy about it. Yes, they have indisputably cut their noses off to spite their faces. But they won't see any connections. In a way to some people, in the EU, out the EU, a shitty tory government is much more the problem.

[quote TokyoSushi]EU are laying out their no deal plans...

twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1336973232159776769/photo/1[/quote]
More mini-deals. A huge success for the British negotiating team...

the Graun is becoming increasingly irrelevant

I usually like to criticise the Guardian, however;

10 December;

""The UK has signed a free trade deal with Singapore covering trade worth £17.6bn, the international trade secretary, Liz Truss, has said."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/10/truss-hails-business-certainty-as-uk-signs-singapore-trade-deal

I had an email from BigChocFrenzy
She says hello from the real world.

Her gym is shut so she is doing weights and zoom classes at home.
Because of the lockdown stuff her local restaurants and cafes are closed.
Because its cold and dark she's not walking as much as she did in the summer lockdown.

But at least she can still move around the continent.
We cannot.

I am not sure if this is true - the incompetence is believable....

DGR - nearly 60% of London voted remain ...... I don't know anyone in the finance sector who voted leave.....
I know a lot of older people who voted leave - many who have holiday homes in Europe..... so serve them fucking right for the way it's gone.....

Now did they vote Tory (people I know in the finance sector) undoubtedly some did - but many many discussed voting labour - despite the fact the could not stand Corbyn. But out in the commuter belt - the people I know - my age who wouldn't countinence voting Corbyn are those with inherited wealth, but not with what I would call serious careers.......never had to work particularly hard because of the inherited cushion they have....

The agreement largely replicates an existing EU-Singapore pact.

That says it all - we spend time negotiating to almost get what we already had. But as long as it's a deal with a country half way across the world, it must be better than with countries on the doorstep.

DGR - nearly 60% of London voted remain ...... I don't know anyone in the finance sector who voted leave.....

I'll admit there is now a certain degree of hindsight, but generally Remain and Tory were not compatible positions to hold. If you voted Remain and Tory, you pretty much agreed to Leave.

If the UK doesn't apply tariffs to US then it doesn't apply tariffs to anyone under WTO rules ?

I wouldn't necessarily agree with that DGR - people like Heseltine, Clarke, Grieve, Rory Stewart, are still Tories to their fingertips.

I would grant you that if you voted Tory in 2019 then yes, you agreed to Leave because that was what the prospectus said 'Get Brexit Done'.

I wonder if they'd have won in the election with the slogan 'Get no deal Brexit Done' ?

I don't disagree with that - however I am continually amazed how little educated people understand about the Brexit process......
Vote happened , have to deliver it because of "democracy " , no British government would harm its own people and economy.....well that's worked out well...., Covid has given us a real taste of how little they care..... worst death rate, worst economic performance..... but still they defend these fuckers....

@DGRossetti

If the UK doesn't apply tariffs to US then it doesn't apply tariffs to anyone under WTO rules ?

Interesting point..... I'd forgotten about that..... But then that's also probably something they don't understand either.

In 2019 - lots of people who were unhappy about Brexit believed the oven ready deal - actually meant there would be a deal and the chapter would be closed, the country would adjust and move on. Because I was a regular on these threads I knew the risk of no deal.... but I hoped they wouldn't do it.
Not that I voted for that charlatan......

@Peregrina

I wouldn't necessarily agree with that DGR - people like Heseltine, Clarke, Grieve, Rory Stewart, are still Tories to their fingertips.

I would grant you that if you voted Tory in 2019 then yes, you agreed to Leave because that was what the prospectus said 'Get Brexit Done'.

AS I said, there's a dash of hindsight.

And nobody* could have predicted quite how venal the Brexiteer bandwagon would be - eating it's own children.

*I bet there were warnings before the ref.

The irony of a vast majority of people voting for Boris thinking they'd never hear about Brexit again is too much to bear. Even though it was one of the most unambiguous predictions before the referendum: if the UK chooses to leave the EU, it will take years and more than one [proper] electoral cycle.

Something it's refreshing to see Boris and the Brexiteers forgot.

I think once Johnson became PM that people who bothered could have predicted exactly how venal Johnson could be.

I think though that people genuinely thought that Brexit would be done. A friend who I know voted Remain said she would have been tempted to vote Leave had there been a second Referendum to get it done.