Westministenders: Brevid

[RedToothBrush]

The government have FINALLY started to treat no deal brexit and covid as one entity in terms of fucking the economy.

On the one hand you have one camp who think they can sneak No Deal through as a consequence of Covid. On the other you have people who realise that it might be quite a good idea not to doubly screw your entire economy and to continue to be able to import medical supplies freely.

We now no that No Deal Brexit will involve passports to get into Kent and 7 mile queues of trucks because this has passed the lips of Gove. Y'know one of those who has been denying this for the past 4 years and presenting it as 'scaremongering'.

We are now firmly into the end game where businesses have to make plans based on the government plans and technology. Y'know the ones that aren't complete yet despite it only being 2 months to go.

Johnson has today done an interview about covid restrictions in the NE in which he got all the detail wrong. Its almost as if he forgot the lines he was instructed to recite and have no fundamental understanding of what rules he's putting into place to control the lives of the population.

As we lurch into October, there is speculation of full local lockdowns being brought in to try and deal with the spiralling number of cases which have to be the result, in no small part, of a dire lack of local testing facilities in the North of England. Meanwhile we've got The App finally. The one that doesn't work and the police and many health care staff are being advised not to use cos its so bobbins and will lead to them constantly isolating needlessly. Thats just something the rest of us have to contend with.

The feeling is that Cummings is up for No Deal. Johnson has been brainwashed into it, which lets face it, isn't too hard given how hard of thinking he is. However there is a growing sense that Johnson may now bottle it and declare victory in the jaws of defeat. That might be a premature hope.

We await the answer and the all important question of whether Christmas is indeed cancelled - that is for everyone who hasn't already cancelled it due to financial hardship...

wicked
Put this into your search bar to see how local coverage handles it ....
news.google.com/topstories?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en

Clav has never answered this question:
Since BJ reneged on the over-ready WA that he signed just months ago, why should the EU believe he won't renege a few months after any new deal?

Why haven't the EU walked away from the negotiations then?

Why haven't the EU walked away from the negotiations then?
Because they are trying to protect their member country, Ireland

There's a challenge for Clavinova ! Can they [she] dig up any other comparable example when any combination of the UK countries have broken an international treaty (apart from when we sold Czechoslovakia down the swannee of course ...) ??????

"The legality of the invasion and occupation of Iraq has been widely debated."

"The then United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan said in September 2004 that: "From our point of view and the UN Charter point of view, it [the war] was illegal."

Because they are trying to protect their member country, Ireland

They will have to hope that BJ doesn't renege on the next deal. In any case, the EU won't necessarily be successful with its legal action against the UK - if the legal action gets very far at all.

Why haven't the EU walked away from the negotiations then?

Because they are wise enough not to give the Brexiters the satisfaction. It needs to be Johnson and Co walking away, as indeed they are doing by being willing to break a treaty that they signed less than a year ago!

Blair wrecked his reputation with Iraq - whatever he says now, even when he is talking sense, gets ignored.

@Clavinova

There's a challenge for Clavinova ! Can they [she] dig up any other comparable example when any combination of the UK countries have broken an international treaty (apart from when we sold Czechoslovakia down the swannee of course ...) ??????

"The legality of the invasion and occupation of Iraq has been widely debated."

"The then United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan said in September 2004 that: "From our point of view and the UN Charter point of view, it [the war] was illegal."

... Neither example is what I was asking for:

Iraq was and is an illegal war / occupation, but neither the US nor UK had just signed a treaty with them before invasion and then broken it to invade

Czechoslovakia was abandoned out of self-preservation, just like a police officer has the right to decide it is too dangerous for them peronally to intervene and save someone

My question was:

Since BJ reneged on the over-ready WA that he signed just months ago, why should the EU believe he won't renege a few months after any new deal ?

Your answer:
"They will have to hope that BJ doesn't renege on the next deal."

shamelessly acknowledges they can't believe him, but they should just hope he doesn't - why ?

Unless Frost & co can give much better reassurances - or accept clearly defined penalties in the test - No Deal looks likely
It is now my preferred option

The EP too - and at least some heads of govt - would veto any deal that doesn't guarantee the NI protocol and repeal the law-breaking parts of the IMB and Finance bill

Why haven’t the EU walked away from negotiations then?
Because it’s not the grown-up thing to do.

The WA was an international treaty for the very specific purpose of an orderly Brexit, that the UK agree with the EU

Now a few months later, the UK has broken that treaty, but wants a trade deal with the EU, the same people it has just betrayed

If there is No Deal, it will be very clear why

BJ has given the EU an excellent reason and cover, if they choose not to agree a deal:

Very few people in their private business would make an important deal with someone who broke the last one only months ago

I have sadly come around to the view that No Deal is the best option
as its the only thing that will lance the boil
and its likely to happen in the middle of utter turmoil in the USA
so the UK will be very, very much out in the cold in January
and then we'll see which way the public mood swings

@borntobequiet

Why haven’t the EU walked away from negotiations then? Because it’s not the grown-up thing to do.

... because there is always the small chance that BJ will U-turn again, abandon the IMB provisions and implement the NI protocol as he signed up to do.

After all, he has a history of U-turns
and so far has got away with them politically

@ListeningQuietly

I have sadly come around to the view that No Deal is the best option as its the only thing that will lance the boil and its likely to happen in the middle of utter turmoil in the USA so the UK will be very, very much out in the cold in January and then we'll see which way the public mood swings

... Sadly, I agree

BJ is highly likely to renege on any deal agreed now, as soon as Covid has died down enough to risk it
Tory backbenchers have let the plan slip

The bitterness and suspicion following a 2nd renege would last decades

Better for the UK to have a reality check of 6-12 months, however long it takes
and then negotiate for a sensible and close trading relationship

There is the risk within those 6-12 months of a desperate UK govt lashing out and getting ever deeper into illegality,
becoming an international pariah, an object of derision

However, that would also pass. Eventually

Any POTUS is only interested in US interests and their party interests - or his own financial interests, in the case of Trump

No past, present or future POTUS would go out on a limb and face down Irish Americans, just to save a UK PM political embarassment

The UK can manage perfectly well if it stops looking for unicorms and breakling treaties, so it is not an existential crisis for the UK,
merely a matter of climbing out of the smelly, murky hole that Brexiters have dug.

Bigchoc
My concern about the USA is rather more that I suspect that the outcome of the election will not be clear for several weeks
and thus that the US teams will have no interest at all in other countries self inflicted problems during November and December

at the same time as COVID cases will be rising mixed in with normal flu and winter colds
across the whole Northern hemisphere

If only Rocky Road had stayed as an icecream flavour

Good overview of sectors, useful facts, for once produced by the UK, not the EU:

What would No Deal mean?

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/UKICE-What-would-no-deal-mean.pdf

Yes, whenever we think Trump couldn't make a worse mess in the USA - he exceeds expectations

If he dies, some people have already voted for him by post
There'll be fury about deciding what to do with these votes, unless there's a Biden landslide

If Biden wins, the GOP will frantically be trying to alter results in local courts and then finally appealing to the Supreme Court

That WH event - little SD, hardly any masks, lots of touching - to announce the SCOTUS pick,
is looking a superspreader event, which may even make enough GOP senators ill to block the nomination !

news.sky.com/story/trump-coronavirus-at-least-seven-test-positive-for-covid-19-after-attending-white-house-event-12088574

Seems like the Tory Party Virtual Conference crashed this morning (maybe tentacle slime that got into the servers?)

Just as well that there aren’t any large scale untested IT projects in the pipeline then.

From reading, there's a lot of ambiguity in the US constitution around the nature of how individual states reconcile their electoral college (because despite what almost every US citizen[1] thinks they don't - and never have - vote for their president) votes[2]. In particular how each states supreme court gets to rule on it. The Wiki article on 2000 and Florida, hanging chads and basically kicking the whole matter back to the Floridian Supreme court is quite a tome.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore

And that is before you consider the election can still end up in a tie.

[1] which equates to most electorally illiterate Britons who claim they "voted for Boris", which they didn't unless they live in Uxbridge.

[2] which may rebut any whining from voters that have already cast their vote - the electoral college should arrange how to actually distribute the popular vote.

Just as well that there aren’t any large scale untested IT projects in the pipeline then.
Snigger

The Digby Jones jobs lost index

yorkshirebylines.co.uk/brexit-the-digby-jones-jobs-lost-index-is-launched/

with more cites than you can cut and paste a stick it ....

Bots out on Twitter and not subtle about it - replies to a Guardian story about Trump...

Johnson and van der Leyen
Please let there be a leak

Cos either she tore him a new one
or she laughed at him

Bots out on Twitter and not subtle about it

The bot leaders must be absolutely wetting themselves at how easy it turned out to be. Half a decade ago, they probably started out at least trying to be subtle and sneaky. The intervening years have clearly demonstrated that complete-and-utter repetitive obvious squirrel bollocks is just as eagerly lapped up as the initial more-carefully constructed lies.

BigChocFrenzy
Neither example is what I was asking for

I was replying to DGRossetti - I'm sorry he didn't phrase his question/challenge in the way you would have liked.

My question was:
Since BJ reneged on the over-ready WA that he signed just months ago, why should the EU believe he won't renege a few months after any new deal?
Your answer:
"They will have to hope that BJ doesn't renege on the next deal."

Again, you have quoted my response to another poster (ListeningQuietly) - I replied to your question with another question;
"Why haven’t the EU walked away from negotiations then?"

How can we tell what the EU are thinking? They might be going through the motions of commencing legal action against the UK but essentially they've only sent a letter!

"Rutte [Dutch PM] described the infringement proceeding as “administrative” rather than political, in an attempt to defuse tension."

"The infringement procedure is a common tool used by the commission against member states. Last year there were 800 open cases. Germany had 47 pending cases and France 34. Each procedure takes an average of 35 months to complete."

"This week Ireland’s foreign minister, Simon Coveney, admitted that many of the EU’s concerns would “fade away” if the joint committee was able to do its work and a wider trade deal was secured."

The Digby Jones jobs lost index
This list was last updated on 3 October 2020

It's not a very reliable list is it?
("Unilever announces it will relocate its legal HQ to Amsterdam.")

Firstly, the link (dated March) 2018 says Rotterdam, not Amsterdam.

Secondly, it's out of date;

June 2020 -
"Unilever, the maker of a host of brands including Marmite and Ben & Jerry’s, is to combine its Dutch and UK businesses in one company based in London after U-turning on a previous decision to move its headquarters to Holland."

"Unilever said that it will maintain its presence in both the Netherlands and the UK, with no plans to cut jobs. Headquarters in both countries will not be affected but the company’s legal base will switch to London."

"Business Secretary Alok Sharma tweeted that the decision was a “clear vote of confidence in the UK”.