Westminstenders: Governing by U-Turn

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson's determination to get brexit done and to have 'a clean break from Europe' on terms which involve other countries happily returning fishing rights they bought from us (without recompense for the said previous purchase) in addition to the EU accepting terms they don't feel create a level playingfield and risk their economic future make any deal impossible. Our demands simply aren't achievable.

The alternative is adherence to the Withdrawal Agreement in which we are unable to bail out businesses via state aid and to have no deal which creates huge trade barriers and tarriffs overnight and massive customs red tape which we simply are not yet prepared for because the systems for running this are running behind schedule. This would lead to massive food shortages and Brexit lorry parks throughout the country for the forseeable future.

Johnson's latest bright idea is that he seems to think he can avoid chaos by a strategy which would cause even more chaos by deliberately reneging on the withdrawal agreement which is an international agreement just months after throwing a hissy fit for China doing exactly the same thing. This wouldn't just be hypocritical but would make a mockery of our credibility internationally and potentially endanger every other international agreement we've currently in place because well, why should anyone else stick to an agreement with the UK.

We could face years of legal wrangles with god knows which countries and businesses suing the British government.

But y'know Johnson thinks this is a sensible strategy and a cracking plan to force Brussels to blink first rather than actually take the subject seriously and do something in the country's interest rather than prevent Johnson from damaging his internal reputation with leave voters and because he thinks this is the correct hill to die on to prove he doesn't govern by u-turn. Johnson's ego seems more important to him than feeding the nation and having an international reputation.

Or he could do another u-turn.

@DGRossetti - You're assuming there was/is a political will for that in England.

I'm assuming nothing of the kind.

I wasn't clear in my post. I meant the GFA would have probably led to a united Ireland in the long term if there wasn't a no deal/hard brexit in the offing. I think apathy on the part of England would have allowed a slow moving momentum achieve a united Ireland.

@FatCatThinCat

So the UK have been sneakily trying to get Ireland on their side by offering to 'facilitate' Irish lorries using the UK as a land bridge. Is this a rebranded 'support us or we'll make sure you starve' policy as advocated by Priti Patel some time ago?

Pretty much.

@ListeningQuietly

If the UK is known for breaking agreements it has signed up to once its alone outside the EU it will get VERY buffeted

The UK is alone outside the EU ...

As we live in a city now on the watchlist (and surrounded by hotspots), "coincidentally" we were invited to participate in the ONS COVID study for which we get COVID swab tests every week.

DDs have been in school since last Thursday and thus far have not displayed any signs of any lurgy. But with schools back, workers being urged back to offices, and general lockdown fatigue in the general population, here in this city it almost feels like When not If. On the plus side, our weekly COVID tests should detect any family infection very promptly.

DH and I were joking to each other (about school term starting) that "the race is on to not be the first family to shut down the year-group bubble"

Jennifer Rankin@JenniferMerode

If UK reneges on the Irish protocol, the EU can take it to... the European court of Justice.

Boris Johnson agreed to ECJ jurisdiction to supervise and enforce the protocol (A12)

Just to alert you, my DC had a snotty cold in March. It was a couple of days before they lost their sense of taste and smell, more profoundly than usual with a cold but it wasn’t acknowledged as a symptom then, and we were being told if you had a runny nose it couldn’t be COVID . Now she has been tested as part of an NHS trial and has antibodies.

DGR
I know that the UK is already alone outside the EU
but while transition lasts, trade is effectively protected by the EU
January 1st, all bets are off

Public opinion in the Irish republic on Reunification

Opinion polls since the Brexit referendum have repeatedly shown that about 2/3 of people would suppoer reunification under the terms of the GFA
i.e. if a majority in NI voted for it in a referendum

We should remember that Reunification was originally written into the Irish Constitution as a clear national aim
and stayed there until the GFA caused a referendum in the RoI on removing this claim to NI from their constitution.

So the RoI agreed under the GFA to give up their claim to NI until the people there voted for it,
BUT this was in return for guaranteed rights, cross-border cooperation, increasing cross-border ties
AND not having any kind of border in NI, including for goods

Gove continued to furiously opposed the GFA even after it became law - he claimed it was a victory for the IRA - and one of his reasons for being a Brexiter is to use Brexit to destroy the GFA,

Unfortunately the GFA assumed both Ireland and the EU would continue to be EU members

• this is even in the preamble to the GFA -

so the GFA does not explicitly state there cannot be a border enforced in Ireland .... because there couldn't be one between EU members

This is an example of how a treaty can have unforeseen loopholes - Brexit was a minor lunatic fringe back in 1998.

However, the government's plans - if newspaper reports are accurate and the govt doesn't backtrack - would actually break the WA, not just make use of loopholes.

I follow HMRC and the Governments Transition team on Linkedin.
The standard of information they are pushing out is so utterly crap, its not possible for businesses to be ready by the end of the year.
So clearly
Johnson still things fuck business
and Cummings still wants to leave everything broken.
Its astounding

so the GFA does not explicitly state there cannot be a border enforced in Ireland .... because there couldn't be one between EU members

That is true. But it is implicit.

Perfidious Albion' is trending as Boris Johnson moves to renege on Brexit deal

I must admit, I am mightily impressed by the dignified silence from France.

.

Hehe, haha, hoho, haha, hehe www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-goes-direct-to-eu-businesses-with-new-campaign?utm_source=726ebf5c-8958-482b-98d9-7ca2cdfd2ecf&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

It is astonishing that BJ was puffing up the WA as his great achievement, including in the GE campaign
and now he plans to renenge on it, literally months later, because it is so bad

It would be at least understandable if say Labour had negotiated and signed the WA in the face of Tory opposition and then BJ was elected after a GE.
(In that case, it would have been clear beforehand and treaties can be terminated - and the EU would likely not have signed in those circumstances without buy-in from the Opposition)

Ha bloody ha indeed

“The UK’s New Start”
= Perfidious Albion On Steroids

Showing EU businesses that a legal agreement with the UK will be torn up whenever BJ gets round to reading it

@Jason118

Hehe, haha, hoho, haha, hehe www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-goes-direct-to-eu-businesses-with-new-campaign?utm_source=726ebf5c-8958-482b-98d9-7ca2cdfd2ecf&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

I imagine the number of companies in the EU that are choosing to do business with the UK right now isn't that huge ...

It is astonishing that BJ was puffing up the WA as his great achievement, including in the GE campaign and now he plans to renenge on it, literally months later, because it is so bad

I'd be mildly surprised if what's left of the civil service would allow themselves to collude in such a move. In fact I'd be amazed if there isn't a memo somewhere to that effect.

Which makes me think this really is just a bit of Boris sabre-rattling and more designed to keep his terminally-dim supporters onside than become actual policy.

But, since we can, gameplaying what could happen if the UK were to go down this path is an interesting thought experiment. Or coursework for anyone studying politics .

I've already suggested the Treaty of Utrecht could become null (and I have no idea what else it provides for apart from Gibraltar ..).

There's the Convention on Human Rights, of course. I can easily imagine courts in other countries being persuaded that the UK can no longer be trusted as a place to extradite a suspect to.

There's also the question of EU citizens rights that the WA provided for.

China would have a very good reason to suspend any and all dealings over Hong Kong too.

Anymore for anymore ?

I must admit, I am mightily impressed by the dignified silence from France.

Some areas of the French press are not silent:
www.liberation.fr/planete/2020/09/07/brexit-a-quoi-joue-boris-johnson_1798757
Barnier is dignity incarnate and far too savvy to comment on this sort of antic, though Ursula von der Leyen has.

.

@AuldAlliance

I must admit, I am mightily impressed by the dignified silence from France.

Some areas of the French press are not silent:
www.liberation.fr/planete/2020/09/07/brexit-a-quoi-joue-boris-johnson_1798757
Barnier is dignity incarnate and far too savvy to comment on this sort of antic, though Ursula von der Leyen has.

You know when I suggested we could ecrire en Francais a while back.

I was joking ....

I may be a while ....

Well, the headline says:

What is BJ playing at?

Work here is batshit crazy, I'll try and summarise the rest later

Just for you, DGR, the last two sentences:

Boris Johnson, torn between those of his Cabinet members who are in favour of a hard no-deal Brexit and the more moderate ones, who hope to sign a free trade deal, seems to be about to take a risky gamble.

If he reneges on his agreements, what will his word be worth when he undertakes other free trade negotiations with other countries around the world?

@AuldAlliance

Well, the headline says:

What is BJ playing at?

Work here is batshit crazy, I'll try and summarise the rest later

I was joking about joking

I've waded through it and got the gist - as long as there aren't going to be questions.

My impression was they don't think it will happen.

That said, as an Italian citizen, I'd be upset if there wasn't some behind the scenes discussions going on in the Commission about being prepared for such an eventuality. Westminstenders are fully aware that Boris gives not one toss for the UK citizens in the EU. This would be his big chance to demonstrate that.

Damn, I was writing a wee comprehension test for you.