Westminstenders: Governing by U-Turn

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson's determination to get brexit done and to have 'a clean break from Europe' on terms which involve other countries happily returning fishing rights they bought from us (without recompense for the said previous purchase) in addition to the EU accepting terms they don't feel create a level playingfield and risk their economic future make any deal impossible. Our demands simply aren't achievable.

The alternative is adherence to the Withdrawal Agreement in which we are unable to bail out businesses via state aid and to have no deal which creates huge trade barriers and tarriffs overnight and massive customs red tape which we simply are not yet prepared for because the systems for running this are running behind schedule. This would lead to massive food shortages and Brexit lorry parks throughout the country for the forseeable future.

Johnson's latest bright idea is that he seems to think he can avoid chaos by a strategy which would cause even more chaos by deliberately reneging on the withdrawal agreement which is an international agreement just months after throwing a hissy fit for China doing exactly the same thing. This wouldn't just be hypocritical but would make a mockery of our credibility internationally and potentially endanger every other international agreement we've currently in place because well, why should anyone else stick to an agreement with the UK.

We could face years of legal wrangles with god knows which countries and businesses suing the British government.

But y'know Johnson thinks this is a sensible strategy and a cracking plan to force Brussels to blink first rather than actually take the subject seriously and do something in the country's interest rather than prevent Johnson from damaging his internal reputation with leave voters and because he thinks this is the correct hill to die on to prove he doesn't govern by u-turn. Johnson's ego seems more important to him than feeding the nation and having an international reputation.

Or he could do another u-turn.

The Queen will not abdicate.
What Charles and William haggle out between them after she dies is another matter.
BUT
Royal Assent is at the end of the process.

Do our elected MPs want to go down in history as law breakers or law makers?

Do the over numerate and over remunerated peers want to go down in history as unelected and unaccountable and unable to see that breaking international law is a bad thing ?

@Pepperwort

Abdication would look like the best option there, yes. I would be a bit surprised if Charles wasn’t briefed to some extent, but he’s not young either.

The article I read made it clear that the Monarch - in this case Her Madge - cannot share briefings with anyone under any circumstances.

As I recall she has the right to "to be consulted, to encourage and to warn her ministers via regular audiences with the Prime Minister".

That's it. No minutes are taken and it would be an explosive breach o0f protocol were either party to a meeting (and we know there are only two) ever disclosed what was said.

It would be nice to imagine Her Madge giving Boris an earful and telling him to wise up, get real and stop fucking around. But she won't. And frankly, I don't think she'd want to anyway. In fact, she might be enjoying all this as revenge for the country being so nasty to poor old Andy. Would certainly make the final episode of the Crown a bit more interesting ....

Excerpt from:

weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2020/09/09/in-a-specific-and-limited-way/

Surely if the UK was perfectly fine with breaking international law, then it didn’t have any need to leave the EU in the first place. All those laws about the permitted curvature of bananas from all those unelected bureaucrats who get up the noses of Tory Brexiteers along with the cocaine could just have been ignored. Instead we’ve had four years of Brexmess, and now at the very point in time when the UK needs friends and allies the most, the British government has decided to trash what is left of any residual goodwill that the UK might still have left.

(contd)

Mainly to raise the profile of Brexmess really

BBC leader changed to www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54097320
“EU ultimatum to UK over Brexit talks”.
“Withdraw it or talks are scuppered”. Gove says he’s made it clear UK won’t withdraw it.
Not. in. my. name. Not that any of us matters, in their form of ‘democracy’.

"Party of law and order" lmao.

The plan is to pick a massive fight with Sturgeon and win the next election on a wave of white English nationalism.

Glad to report that my sterling exposure was well hedged. Sucks to be paid in pounds!

‘wave of white English nationalism.’

Is this the new century’s Aryanism?

Is it time to go to Parliament Square yet?

While I agree that Parliament is sovereign, the time for Parliamentarians to have objected is when the original bill was put to them

They fucking voted it through

They can't then later complain that they didn't realise what some of the implications were and that they didn't like them

Is it time to go to Parliament Square yet?

Can someone calculate how long a march would be if a socially distanced 1m people were to protest against this mess?

Why is Johnson talking about it being done in a rush? He could have asked for an extension to gain more time. But no.

God knows what will happen now. Heseltine doesn't think it will get through the Lords, but I am not so sure - there are enough toadies there too.

It's not just Spain which could decided to repudiate an 18th Century Treaty - Scotland could do likewise.

Interesting that the UK govt maintain that "The Protocol makes clear that Northern Ireland is fully part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom and that there will be unfettered access for goods moving from Northern Ireland to the rest of the United Kingdom."

www.gov.uk/government/news/meeting-of-the-withdrawal-agreement-joint-committee-on-10-september

I thought that whole point of Mr Johnson caving in on the WA was that NI would be treated as part of the single market, thus requiring a customs declaration for goods leaving Britain going to NI?

@Peregrina

Why is Johnson talking about it being done in a rush? He could have asked for an extension to gain more time. But no.

God knows what will happen now. Heseltine doesn't think it will get through the Lords, but I am not so sure - there are enough toadies there too.

It's not just Spain which could decided to repudiate an 18th Century Treaty - Scotland could do likewise.

Don’t forget that Johnson’s cronies cut down the time allowed for scrutiny of the WA in Parliament. You know, when MPs get to debate to find the things that might be a wee bit tricky down the line.

Don’t discount the HoL just yet - plenty of them will be very uncomfortable about voting through something that breaks international law.

I hope you are right Sabrina about the HoL.

German media scathing about the illegality & foolishness of Uk govt action
and aware of his domestic political problems
e.g.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article215471548/Brexit-Streit-Diesmal-ist-Boris-Johnson-zu-weit-gegangen.html

This time Boris Johnson went too far (translation)

Sefcovic warned that the British government must “withdraw the proposed measures as soon as possible and by the end of the month at the latest”.
By presenting the legislative initiative, "trust between the UK and the EU has been seriously damaged".
It is up to Johnson to repair it.
....
The British Prime Minister broke the <a class="break-all" href="https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?client=tw-ob&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=welt.de/215285730&usg=ALkJrhgjaYNxhk4e1MOuFyxs42RFSDB5pA" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">law - even before the law was passed in the British Parliament.

At least that is the analysis of the lawyers of the EU Commission.
The exit agreement, which Johnson wants to relativize with his legislative initiative, has been in force since February 1st.
Since then, "neither side is allowed to unilaterally change, clarify, supplement, interpret or not use the text,"
says the EU legal opinion, according to the Irish broadcaster RTE.

The Brussels authority can therefore immediately initiate proceedings against the British before the European Court of Justice,
which could result in a fine or the suspension of parts of the exit agreement and the - still to be negotiated - free trade agreement.
.....
The premier is now being gripped from two sides.
On the one hand, the EU is threatening a procedure that could mean heavy fines for London.

In the worst case, sanctions could follow by Brussels lifting part of the exit treaty - for example by blocking access to the EU financial market,
which would <a class="break-all" href="https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?client=tw-ob&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=welt.de/215217128&usg=ALkJrhjbKOrho8LRkZKHwlauUsWQSIC72g" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">hit the British financial center seriously .

At the same time, the protest in Johnson's own ranks is growing.
It is likely that, thanks to his 80-seat majority, he will bring the bill through the House of Commons, which should be done in two weeks.
But there are growing voices in his group that see the UK's image threatened by Johnson's brutal action.

It will probably be even more difficult in the House of Lords.
A clear majority among the Lords is against the bill and could vote against it.
Also representatives of the Tory party itself, because the acceptance of the exit contract is part of the program with which Johnson won the election in December 2019.
The Prime Minister may have forgotten, but the Lords have not.

What is Johnson's calculation?
The memory of autumn 2019 suggests that the Conservative wants to play poker with the EU again.
Back then Johnson threatened a no deal until shortly before twelve,:in the end there was a compromise.
This time, too, the prime minister puts on his very own staging.

"The British wanted (EU chief negotiator) Michel Barnier to break off negotiations this week in London in protest of the law,"
said an EU diplomat.
But the Europeans are not allowing themselves to be turned into involuntary supporting actors in <a class="break-all" href="https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?client=tw-ob&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=welt.de/215200282&usg=ALkJrhgT4BfC5u4P3ad1PU_O7vAYibWN-Q" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Johnson's latest Brexit dramaa^ .
The negotiations should continue according to plan, and may even be intensified.

Johnson may be hoping that the talks will be broken off so that the heads of state and government can intervene.

At this level, the Briton could offer a withdrawal of his controversial law if the Europeans compromise on the controversial points of the future free trade agreement.

It is doubtful that Angela Merkel or Emmanuel Macron will allow themselves to be blackmailed with a law that violates international law.

What's next?
Although EU chief negotiator Barnier sees no progress in what is now the eighth round of negotiations on a future free trade agreement, the Europeans will stoically carry on.

“We will be the last to turn off the light here”,
as EU Ambassador João Vale de Almeida recently said in <a class="break-all" href="https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?client=tw-ob&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.de&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus211462047/Ist-Joao-Vale-de-Almeida-der-Brueckenbauer-nach-der-Scheidung.html&usg=ALkJrhi4rVbgz2ewLXopmWkXoskHiwwOdw" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">an interview with WELT.

At least there's a Tiger in lots of Tanks now - it's nothing more than a manouevre - that appears to have worked to gee things up a bit.

I heard that the EU discussed 'walking away' from the Negotiations last night - but of course they can't really - although I would find it as equally hilarious as the UK's recent shenanigans if they did.

Poor Barnier, having nothing new to go into negs with (as well as having to rewrite his post-neg script). The EU Council hanging him out to dry as all he can quote is their 'solidarity' which few actually relly believe.

Maybe they've given him something new to negotiate with. Hold onto your hats people, we're going for a ride.

@HateIsNotGood - it's nothing more than a manouevre - that appears to have worked to gee things up a bit.

Really? So you think announcing that you plan on breaking an international treaty that was signed less than a year ago is an acceptable way for a reputable government to behave?

What a pathetic post, HateIs - a country which rats on its agreements, and all you can say is we are going for a ride.

🐿

Yes I do Ochon - just a little manouvre that's caused quite a ripple - it's a tactic.

Peregrina - stop being so dramatic.

I'd be interested to know what you think this tactic will achieve? In all my many years of negotiating deals I haven't come across the 'piss everybody off' technique. The only reason for this type of behaviour is to get no deal and blame others.

IHeartSusanDey I so hope you are right about younger people from a Unionist background shifting towards a unified Ireland. I'm basing my opinion on knowledge of people over 50.

Hold onto your hats people, we're going for a ride.
Not one that will do any of us any good

(that should say 'reunification', obvs)

Starmer didn't have anything to say about it in PMQs either - so either he's not bothered too much, too worried about upsetting the Red Wall he hopes to get back or god forbid, Starmer's silence is a tactic too.