Westminstenders: Just another DEADline

[RedToothBrush]

Today is the last scheduled day for talks with the EU.

We have til 30th June to ask for a transition extension. We won't.

That leaves us starring down the barrel of a no deal exit, when we still could be in a covid-19 crisis and the US may be in turmoil given recent events and the coming election...

It's not a pretty picture.

DGR what was that quote from the statistician you posted on the thread before last? The one suggesting that we need conformity of data for it to be in any way reliable or useful?

Pepperwort said

Northern Ireland issues were not well known outside Ireland. Perhaps it was discussed in your charmed circles, or in the Universities or somewhere. That knowledge was not in general circulation and attempts to tell me that it was are the same re-writing of history that has been complained about on here.

I don't really wish to rehash this, but there is the inconvenient truth that Northern Ireland is nominally part of the UK, just as Scotland is. People from there are used to being overlooked, but that doesn't mean that it was excusable during the referendum. I have a lot of sympathy for the people of Shirebrook and their struggle to function with the impact of Sports Direct, however as you said, it attracted national headlines (as a town with approximately 10,000 residents) while the potentially devastating consequences of a vote to leave for a part of the UK with over 100 times as many citizens isn't justifiable simply because many other people in the UK prefer to forget NI's political reality.

@yoikes I agree with your predictions:(

This came up on FB as something I posted 4 years ago today....

Boris Johnson says ceding sovereignty for economic gain is morally wrong. Presumably that means he now backs Scottish independence 😉 #EUref

I remember clearly how a very high number of people in England didn’t know that NI was part of the U.K.
I know at the time I asked my two teens and they both said ‘yes I know NI is part of the uk on paper. But it doesn’t feel like it’.

Many people didn’t take the NI issue as a problem because they never saw it as part of the uk anyway.

carrot yeah. You haven't actually answered my question though...

At what point did you look at what Farage et al were doing and saying and thought "fuck yeah, gimme some of that!"??

Your situation makes you very vulnerable. I can only imagine your level of regret. Doesn't help you or us though, does it?

My mother is very vulnerable. Refuses point blank to prep for no deal. So I have to prep for 5 now. No idea where I can get her meds from once the shortages start. Awkward as they keel her alive.

misti thank you for that. Really interesting. However, your comments assume that the Trump admin will not break the law/incite civil war...both of which I predicted last year.

It's the hope that'll kill ya :(

I realise I'm being a prophet of doom here...

I allowed myself snatches of hope so many times over the past 4 years....

I think the best advice is hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Coz it's gonna be bad. Sorry.

@Pepperwort

What you say about propaganda is interesting cat, but I can't entirely agree with it. If that is the only information you are given, and you don't have the capability to find out differently, through connections or whatever, then that is your world.

Well, people could choose not to read the Sun and read the Daily Mirror instead.

Liverpool, where people by and large have boycotted the Sun for local reasons, voted Remain. Despite the city having huge problems of its own arising from economic changes and Government cuts.

Excuses I heard for a Leave vote.

It's got too big, which had been preceded by an I'm not racist but statement. I interpreted that as not minding the western European states, but not wanting Bulgarians and Romanians here.

Or, there is so much waste in the EU organisation. Maybe, but there will still be waste if one country leaves.

Sorry math not misti!

pepper I'm as working class they come, love. I find it really offensive that w/c = thick as pigshit to most on mn.

There are plenty of m/c s d u/c people who voted leave btw

NI 2as certainly on my radar!

Anyway, my big thought for this week is this: don't mistake lack of power with an unwillingness to engage or ignorance of the realities of power.

I've been thinking about how so much political discourse is so blame-driven. And often, blame falls on those who are attributed a power they simply don't have. And then attributed a role in propping up inequality which, ironically, erases the struggles they have taken part in against inequality.

And, yes, as a middle-aged woman, feminist and progressive, I am thinking a lot about my own cohort.

There is still a nasty strain of this in progressive movements. And I think that needs to be dealt with if the Left/progressives are seriously going to challenge the right in the U.K. and the US.

It's not just the Right who weave myths about the distribution of power and who abolish history.

I've wimbled on earlier threads about the 'forgetting' of the history of the fight against AIDS in particular. But you can add into that the erasure of the struggles and resistances of whole generations.

If you wilfully forget those things, you unlearn lessons in resistance. And you gain a sense of righteousness that you are the first to name injustice but at a terrible cost.

Re Poulet’s strange drop in figures:
If simple hand hygiene reduces transmission by up to 50% (as I read quite early on)
and social distancing also reduces it
and working from home reduces it
and making no unnecessary journeys esp on public transport reduces it
and cleaning surfaces reduces it
and a significant proportion of the population are resistant to it
and the very many people with mild infections are not particularly infectious
Then I’m not surprised the numbers are dropping.

History is full of virulent illnesses that sweep through populations and then vanish, never to be seen again, for example the sweating sickness of the 13th and 14th centuries.

My other thought is that lockdown made visible how enclosed people are in their own communication networks.

Social media really did promise to democratise information and widen participation - but, my goodness, it really, really does have a power to do the exact opposite.

I think it is now - when the power to mingle, and to concretely interact with material others, in actual, real locations, has been removed - that I have realised how important that material interaction is for politics.

Social media is extraordinary, and so powerful (the groups gathering to protest around BLM have been gathered by social media and are staggeringly young) but also very, very restrictive (reaching out to those beyond your contact list, gathering information beyond the immediate, is insanely difficult).

NI wasn't widely discussed before the referendum but frankly I don't think it would have made any difference even if it was. The issues around the border are known about now and have been for a long time, they haven't changed anyone's mind. I the four years since the referendum I haven't met one English Leave voter who give a single shit about NI. Tory big wigs know this, hence Irish sea border. I also think they're getting their ducks in a row for a united Ireland. As for Scotland, I can't see much of a downside for English Tories of an independent Scotland, I think this would also be welcomed.

Over in America, I think Trump's best chance of being reelected now, after his management of covid and BLM is a war with China to unite the public behind him.

There are plenty of m/c s d u/c people who voted leave btw

I agree. Rich home counties pensioners voted Leave in their droves. I have little doubt it's the poor who will be blamed in years to come though.

what point did you look at what Farage et al were doing and saying and thought "fuck yeah, gimme some of that!"??

Quite. Populist politicians (not that Farage is a politician) who are prepared to lie and stoke xenophobia and racism for their own ends are generally of low intellect and integrity (not that there are not some highly intelligent totalitarians).

So even someone supports Leave sentiments - should be very wary of the quality of political leaders, their ethics, and the likelihood of their being able to deliver their promises. Particularly anyone who is sick or disabled or otherwise vulnerable unless very wealthy.

I agree. Rich home counties pensioners voted Leave in their droves. I have little doubt it's the poor who will be blamed in years to come though.

I think they’re both to blame but the rich, educated oldies are more culpable.

Rich home counties pensioners voted Leave in their droves. I have little doubt it's the poor who will be blamed in years to come though.

Yes, I fully agree but the poor northerners have already been given the blame. Not the smug Tories of the south east - those who vote for the pig with a blue rosette.

V interesting people's posts about Trump, US and Mattis. Poss stupid question but given statement of Mattis and Kelly, do you think if Trump refused to leave the White House in Nov following unsuccessful election campaign, that he wouldn't be able to rely on the support of the US Army?

I can't see much of a downside for English Tories of an independent Scotland, I think this would also be welcomed.

I'm a bit less on MN since lockdown. Something I never understood really was the mindset of those Conservatives- especially the (now subdued?) ERG types. Clearly they hubristically see themselves as truly great chosen ones- the empire leaders. But surely truly great ones need increasing empires? What's the point in being a big fish in an ever shrinking domain, ending up with little tiny England?

We were a ver big fish in a powerful trading bloc. Why give that up plus NI and Scotland as well so the big fish are more dominant but in a shrunken pool. It's weird.

Also a bit tangentially and with the benefit of hindsight if FOM had been a problem ( rather than the economic benefit bringing net contributors that it really was) then the obvious solution now would have been to use Covid as an excuse. So all EU governments could be persuaded to agree that emergency brake they used to talk about with quotas and stuff if there were high levels of EU immigration. Also are the black lives matter developments why there hasn't been an ERG reaction or even Farage revival to anything including the proposed Hong Kong arrivals? Are we are over that xenophobic phase? It's all so illogical.

Random ramblings end.

I wonder if the ERG types think that by allying themselves with the USA they will regain the influence they had in George III's day?

This is a really interesting article on "will Trump go":

www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/6/3/21257133/trump-2020-election-meltdown-lawrence-douglas

The worrying message is that the American state does not really have any reliable levers to pull.

Poss stupid question but given statement of Mattis and Kelly, do you think if Trump refused to leave the White House in Nov following unsuccessful election campaign, that he wouldn't be able to rely on the support of the US Army?

In a word no, he can't rely on the support of the US army.

The Secretary of Defense has stated publicly that the army should not be used on American citizens unless in the direst of circumstances and the current situation isn't that, because it undermines the principles of the constitution.

That also means, although he's not saying it, if you lose and election you shouldn't use the army on civilians as that also undermines the constitution.

Trump has repeatedly undermined the constitution. Its interesting to see Republican constitutionalists expressing such levels of concern at this point. He's pissed them off for 4 long years and they've had enough and are opening raising questions about whether he is worthy of further support.