Westministenders: Lockdown continues

[BigChocFrenzy]

The UK has been on lockdown since 23 March,
with no end in sight.

The deaths peak is predicted to be around 17 April,
with the controversial IHME prediction that the UK will have considerably more total deaths - 66,000 - by summer than other European countries.

Supermarkets are struggling to satisfy demand for online slots for the vulnerable
and to keep shelves supplied for other customers

Like all countries, the UK economy is being hammered and heading for a deep recession.
Estimates are for UK GDP to fall 15% this year.

A million people have applied for Universal Credit
The self-employed and small - and some large - businesses are struggling to stay solvent.

They don't know how long to plan for.

The PM is in ICU and Raab has taken over as stand-in, but needs Cabinet approval for decisions.
Probably BJ will be unfit to resume his duties as PM for several weeks, if ever.

WIll he stand down soon and let the Cabinet choose a new PM,
or will the UK continue for weeks with a stand-in leader during the worst crisis since WW2

What's the plan, anybody?

DGR where did you get yours? And as per previous post, can we trust the findings?

It was online, via YouGov. In fact it was brilliant value as not only did it ask if I had any of the symptoms, but it asked on another page if anyone I lived with had them too. Wonderful economies of scale.

I presume I'll get the results not long after the government do ...

Online... oh for god's sake. What will they think of next 🙄😑

Is anyone else developing visions of the virus turning into a zombie apocalypse

No, not really ...

Online... oh for god's sake. What will they think of next

Just my naff sense of humour

I just completed a YouGov survey (beats trying to register with Sainsburys) and it amused me that there were two questions asking if I (or someone I lived with) had experienced ... and then a list of symptoms.

Well I say "amused", but I'd hope the data isn't for anything more than lolz. And then I remembered how the UK seems determined to plough it's own unique furrow, and it dawned on me this is the testing Hancock must be referring to ...

Similar dilemma facing all infected countries:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/as-death-toll-soars-uk-finance-minister-warns-economy-could-shrink-by-30-report/articleshow/75121782.cms?

While there was widespread sympathy for Johnson across the political spectrum over his illness,
the upbeat tone of his message could not disguise the gravity of the choices now facing his government while he is away from his desk.

With foreign minister Dominic Raab deputising for him, but without the full authority of a prime minister,
the government faced excruciating trade-offs between the needs of the health service and of the economy, with national morale also at stake.

The Times newspaper reported that Rishi Sunak, the finance minister, had discussed with colleagues
the possibility that Gross Domestic Product would shrink by 25 to 30 percent between April and June.

A Treasury spokesman declined to comment on the report.

Citing unnamed ministers, the Times reported that
Sunak and others were pushing for social distancing measures to be relaxed for the sake of the economy,
while others were resisting because of the risk of exacerbating the coronavirus outbreak

Thanks DGR I’ve just finished re-reading his Rendevous with Rama, which is quite a good fit for those quotes

Coronavirus conspiracy theories targeting Muslims spread in India

The Indian PM and govt are hardline religious nationalists who have been whipping up hate against Muslims for years.
Shameful they got elected with that / for that

How to make a bloody awful crisis even more bloody awful:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-targeting-muslims-spread-in-india

Attacks and boycotts escalate amid false claims that Muslim group to blame for epidemic

Is anyone else developing visions of the virus turning into a zombie apocalypse

The joke with my closest friends is that my planning for coronavirus is not a lot different to my planning for the zombie apocalypse...

... It came up in conversation as one of them had been out for night out and discovered that a number of friends had thought about what to do in the event of the zombie apocalypse. She thought it hilarious and that no one else would have one. What she discovered that week asking around was that she knew several other people who had seriously considered what to do in the event of the apocalypse. By the time she got to us on Friday night (at the pub) she was in despair and asked "Don't tell me you have one too?"

To which we replied...

"Well..."

So we naturally spent the next hour or so we developed an exit strategy for escaping our area for the zombie apocalypse complete with rendezvous point and fortification plan.

As you do.

She now has decided in all seriousness that an emergency box for all unexpected crisis is a good plan.

And that we (unlike some of her friends) are not completely batshit.

If we're going to go full on conspiracy theorists... then let's think about the timing of the 'leaks' to the press about an anti corbyn campaign from inside Labour HQ re: 2017 election. How convenient that documents from 3 years ago are leaked that could destablise Labour Party unity at the time it finally has an electable Leader. Does this not carry similarities of the DNC leaks pre-2016 presidential election? And we know who was behind that...

RTB my DD frequently thinks about her zombie apocalypse plan and who is 'on the team' or not given their potential for contribution via capabilities and competencies. Perhaps Johnson should have thought about using a ZA scenario when he thought about who to have or not as his government ministers. Would have resulted in those with better planning and project management skills.

Since there is not likely to be an election for 4 years, trying to destabilise Labour now might backfire.

Yes, the effort to try and destabilise might backfire, but it may well make Starmer's initial job to bring unity to the Labour Party that bit more difficult. If he's spending his time and focus trying to reunite the party factions, investigate past wrongs etc. then he's got less time being an effective opposition now.

Gives the journos something to focus on besides government fuck ups too, doesn't it?

Men might need a slightly better Zombie Apocalypse plan than women, going by mortality stats.
Being of the male sex would almost be one of the comorbidities ....

NHS Covid-19 Decision Support Tool

FT
http://prod-upp-image-read.ft.com/765d3430-7a57-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03

3 domains, each of which defines a separate points score:

⏺ Age
⏺ Clinical Fraily
⏺ Comobordity

These are summed to give a points total for the 3 domains
The higher the score, the worse the prognosis

There is in effect a 4th Domain:

⏺ Sex

Women are given the advantage of subtracting 1 point
Presumably taking account of v different male / female survival rates across the world

ABOVE 8 points, a patient is not treated in ICU
(clinical discretion remains)

I think I've done it wrong....
I got minus 1????
Hmm

BCF The issue with that graphic is disabilities. What about people with non-degenerative disabilities or learning impairments, who do require care but would otherwise be expected to live a long life? I suppose that's where clinical judgement comes in, but if I were disabled I'd be very worried by that.

Raab C Nitwit on the Exit Strategy: "We are working on it."

Well that's taken a weight off my mind. For a minute there I thought they didn't have a clue.

Honeysuckle The first draft released of guidelines (not of this decision tree) included LDs, autism as likely to have a worst prognosis
.... and prognosis for surviving / coping with treatment is the basis for the decision process.

Organisations for disability rights immediately objected and the wording was removed

In practice, I suspect it would be considered, possible under "clinical judgement)
e.g. in the event of 2 people and only 1 ICU bed

yoikes Nothing to rule out a below-zero score

In fact, looks like
a very fit woman aged under 50, with no previous significant health isses would score -2

(Maybe at 0 or below, someone else on a machine could even get taken off ? That criteria was discussed by a USA medical association)

mockers The entire government may be working on that plan:

While that's all true, I was at a specific link between VitD and C-19.

There probably aren’t any studies yet. There are studies showing that Vitamin D supplementation reduces the risk of upper respiratory tract infections.

Since there is not likely to be an election for 4 years, trying to destabilise Labour now might backfire.

That statement only holds true if Boris remains PM.

Saw an interesting snippet elsewhere suggesting that his absence has reduced the effectiveness of the cabinet (which was hardly stellar to begin with) considerably, as Raabs authority to make possibly long term decisions is under scrutiny from all factions in the party. A problem any Johnson successor would face that might require another trip to the country.

I think if deaths in care homes were published, or included in daily figures, it’d be quite shocking.

“I can tell you that for every #COVID19 death at a hospital, I deal with 5 at a care home - I’ve been to 4 care homes in 2 days”. The words of a funeral director I spoke to in the north of England. It’s in the public interest for the deaths to be included in the daily briefing.

mobile.twitter.com/sallychidzoy/status/1249443474606297088

Oh FFS!

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/uk-missed-three-chances-to-join-eu-scheme-to-bulk-buy-ppe

Enjoy "Amazing Grace"

Easter performance by Andrea Bocelli in front of the stunning Duomo cathedral in Milan: