Westministenders: Lockdown continues

[BigChocFrenzy]

The UK has been on lockdown since 23 March,
with no end in sight.

The deaths peak is predicted to be around 17 April,
with the controversial IHME prediction that the UK will have considerably more total deaths - 66,000 - by summer than other European countries.

Supermarkets are struggling to satisfy demand for online slots for the vulnerable
and to keep shelves supplied for other customers

Like all countries, the UK economy is being hammered and heading for a deep recession.
Estimates are for UK GDP to fall 15% this year.

A million people have applied for Universal Credit
The self-employed and small - and some large - businesses are struggling to stay solvent.

They don't know how long to plan for.

The PM is in ICU and Raab has taken over as stand-in, but needs Cabinet approval for decisions.
Probably BJ will be unfit to resume his duties as PM for several weeks, if ever.

WIll he stand down soon and let the Cabinet choose a new PM,
or will the UK continue for weeks with a stand-in leader during the worst crisis since WW2

What's the plan, anybody?

Has anybody else found the graphic comparing Iceland and Netherlands testing results rather enlightening .....

Lockdown has to end sooner or later
the main thing now is to plan properly for ending it
with the max economic gain and the least health risk

And thanks to Apileof and BCF and Ohlook for your thoughts and good wishes. This virus does not play nice. Hope everyone stays healthy.

Does the reappearance of Cinders signal some unease in the Johnson camp?

I don't really understand why they don't bite the bullet and publish the care home deaths before a journalist does some journalism and works out how many there are.

Not only does correlation not equal causation, but that graph was for influenza. Covid-19 is not influenza.

According to the BBC, the 4 largest manufacturers of PPE in the UK are prioritising supplies to the NHS and social services in England.

In case it wasn't clear to anybody, they are supplying England but not Scotland. Not impressed.

The Scottish figures are including deaths outwith hospitals - but this results in a jump every Wednesday when the more complete figures from National Records Scotland are incorporated into the daily Health Protection Scotland figures.

These new figures include all cases where Covid-19 is mentioned on a death certificate, even if the patient was not in hospital and had not been tested - and even if the virus was just one of a number of factors.

From the article below.

Coronavirus in Scotland: Who is dying and where? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177

Not only does correlation not equal causation, but that graph was for influenza. Covid-19 is not influenza.

So ?

I said it was interesting. I am very much of the Arthur C Clarke view of science and scientists ...

Vitamin D is supposed to be a Good Thing, for all sorts of illnesses.

Vitamin D is supposed to be a Good Thing, for all sorts of illnesses.

Certainly crops up a lot around Multiple Sclerosis ... also the whole sunlight thing, as MS distribution (as far as we know) has a casual link with climate. Less sun. More MS. There's been plenty of interesting research that shows people who grow up in sunnier climes have less prevalence of MS if then then move as adults to more northern latitudes. A protection which seems to disappear when people move as children.

However there are also genetic issues with looking at populations in northern latitudes compared to elsewhere. (As seen with lactose intolerance, and various blood disorders which provide some degree of protection from malaria).

And that's before you factor in the sex thing ... MS tends to occur in a ration of 2:1 Women:men.

And moving slightly further along the plank, there's the suggestion of a viral connection with MS. Or at least some expressions of MS ...

causal not "casual" FFS.

Oh, for an edit function - either on MN or my fat fingers ....

I was only a toddler during the Asian flu, MissClimpson so I have no memory of it

I remember the Hong Hong flu - but fortunately didn't get it though, unlike peregrina

When I had "proper flu" over 20 years ago, as a very fit 40-yr-old,
I was nowhere near the level of ever needing oxygen

However, I was signed off for work for 2 weeks, then relapsed the next week and signed off for another 2 weeks
I was totally incapable of working and in fact returning without enough convalescent time caused my relapse
It took me 4 months afterwards to regain my former level of gym fitness

If BJ was sick enough to be even briefly in ICU, then he'll be months regaining his former strength and endurance

So he'd be risking his health and / or not doing the full job during a time of crisis
imo, he should formally step down for a couple of months and not confuse who's in charge - let Raab and the rest of the Cabinet run things

I'd expect any sensible business to send someone home to get well properly, after they've been in ICU, not allow them to keep supervising any important projects

Doctors in Germany generally push patients to get outside in the sun where possible,
to strengthen the immune system

That includes stationary sunning, for the less fit

Probably why when the cop shop car swings by our Rhine path, they never bother the row of people sitting on benches, 1 per person, or grass - the MN-dreaded sunbathers.

Speeding cyclists near pedestrians seem to be their target atm

Absolutely Big Choc, I didn't need oxygen either, but I certainly wasn't well for a few weeks.

My boss had whatever flu was going round in the early 2000s and he was off for two weeks and then still pretty poorly for the next few weeks.

But Covid isn't flu, and I suppose we don't really know how it will behave.

DGR “I am very much of the Arthur C Clarke view of science and scientists ...”

What is Arthur C Clarke’s view of scientists? It sounds intriguing!

It's probably a very important message to say 'he is doing no work'. A lot of ordinary people are being forced back to work after the two weeks isolation : I think the unfortunate message the soundbite type info has given is that you recover after two weeks and that is just not the case at all if you get anything like flu like plus symptoms.

What is Arthur C Clarke’s view of scientists? It sounds intriguing!

en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Arthur_C._Clarke

Clarke's First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

I can't cite this one, but read it years ago ... When asked by a journalist why science seemed to take time to accept new ideas, Clarke stated Because old scientists need to die first ...

Well, still not recovered and it's been 5 weeks now. GP has sent a letter to HR saying I need another 6 weeks at home no matter what.
Viral pneumonia is horrible.
It's also like this virus is attacking me in different places and ways; latest symptom was an all body itch (more like sunburn) that lasted a week.
I want it gone but no idea when... still no good sense of taste or smell.
Sorry, rant over
to fellow sufferers

SongsOfExperience 💐
So sorry you are suffering for so long
I hope this bastard virus finally leaves you soon - and then that you can have a few weeks convalescence doing little more than self-care

(DOngsOfExperience Sorry, but my original typo made my chuckle !)

There’s no where vitamin D being a good thing is concerned. Vitamin D is essential for the proper working of the immune system, with vitamin D receptors being expressed on various cellular components. Vitamin D deficiency is known to make you more susceptible to infection and can result in immune-mediated disorders such as MS. There’s no really strong evidence to support using vitamin D supplementation in MS, but that’s probably because nobody stands to make any money out of doing a proper study.

There’s no hmm where vitamin D being a good thing is concerned.

The clue is in in the word "Vita"min ...

Vitamin D is essential for the proper working of the immune system, with vitamin D receptors being expressed on various cellular components. Vitamin D deficiency is known to make you more susceptible to infection and can result in immune-mediated disorders such as MS.

While that's all true, I was at a specific link between VitD and C-19. Given the fact "some" people on these forums were calling for a national campaign of dishing the smarties out as a treatment/cure

There’s no really strong evidence to support using vitamin D supplementation in MS, but that’s probably because nobody stands to make any money out of doing a proper study.

And also because by the time you have MS it's too late ...

Anybody following #labourleaks on twitter?

I see the government has finally rolled out C-19 testing. Just had mine. Anybody else here ? Be curious to see if they hit 100,000 by end of month.

So Johnson tested negative for SARS-Cov-2? But he still must have actually had the virus...what does this tell us about all those thousands of 'negatives' from the testing? Is anyone else developing visions of the virus turning into a zombie apocalypse . And snap Songsof in terms of how different organs or body systems come under attack at different times. Underscores just how much this is not like other (human) 'flu's'.

DGR where did you get yours? And as per previous post, can we trust the findings?