Westminstenders: A test of logistic planning

[RedToothBrush]

We are witnessing a demonstration in Government crisis management.

For the past week journalists have asked the same questions and politicians have said they've already done it / are doing it in the near future. But as time wears on, the inability to produce the answers or demonstrate results is proving illusive.

This will have consequences.

It is a demonstration in how planning has proved to be lacking in certain areas.

With Brexit in mind, the lack of vision, coordination with business and wider capability and capacity this does not bode well.

Crikey red!

Unfortunately a case has happened here in the local home and the person died

Walking past today and another ambulance was outside :(

Once it's out there in a provision for vulnetanle people then it's going to go through like a dose of salts :(

Hope you're keeping well sos
How's squid?

www.channel4.com/news/new-data-suggests-coronavirus-deaths-could-be-higher
New data suggests coronavirus deaths could be higher

One of the many problems with 'dodgy data' we are producing is that people don't see the threat in their area and start taking risks. Other issues include people not being told their friend/family member died of COVID and they don't isolate from their family and infection rates creep back up. I've also heard many care home stories - hospitals have no spaces so people are trying to push them into care homes as there is no social service left to look after them (many Tory voters in our nearby village were horrified at this, strangely). I still see eugenics at every turn but then I also see Cummings...the two may be interconnected.

From the moment we could see it was being transmitted in the community and they STOPPED TRACE TESTING and then ONLY TESTED IN HOSPITALS, I completely stopped believing the figures. We have no real data as far as I am concerned. It is horrifying.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/coronavirus-indigenous-communities-brazil-yanomami

Very bad news.

Doesn’t the eagle’s head point to the branches in peacetime and the arrow in wartime? Or maybe that’s a myth?

The comments on the post suggest it's a myth. But then the US has been at war 222 years out of 229 ...

Returning to topic ..

'but then the US has been at war 222 years out of 229'
Really? DGR that's astonishing!

@JeSuisPoulet yes I agree we actually have no reliable data at all :(

Red A similar additional % of people dying in care homes is quite likely happening across Europe and in the USA too
The West has an aging population

and few countries count care home deaths

• France does now, which makes their figures look worse than those of other countries

However, the number of deaths of people of all ages dying in their own homes / arriving too late at hospital may be characteristic of a country which does not allow hospital admission until condition is critical

This seems UK policy, judging by the very distressing MN "burning lungs" threads
and was probably the case when the system in Italy could not cope.

btw, German public health policy is to closely monitor all confirmed cases and treat any deterioration as early as possible, including early hospital admission

• one reason the # deaths has been kept comparatively low

If we are anything like France, the number of deaths is a third higher, when people outside of the hospital are included.

I am taking all stats as snapshots at the moment: we will only know the true extent of the pandemic when it finishes and historians compare this year with others.

@redtoothbrush Is your DS on Mumsnet ?

There is a poster called "TheLittleRedToothBrush" on that Coronavirus thread about disinfecting fruit in booze

That poster is asking about gin and he's too young for that !
< hic >

Returning to topic ..

Going by those numbers DGR, they'll be no extension. It's still those Brexiteers who get the final say. So it'll be no deal and straight over the cliff edge dragging the rest of us along with them.

My 5 year old asked me how he spelt 'stay at home' today. He seems to understand what's going on better than some adults I know and his knowledge of politicians would shame others (he knows who the prime minister is).

However he can't write yet, and he's not into gin.

Having an impersonator on mn is a bit odd though.

It's like John Crace reads MN... here he sums up our Chancellor's views on an extension. Makes Rishi that bit less dishy.

Sunak’s most terrifying utterance came almost as an afterthought. Asked whether, given that many economists have forecasted that the coronavirus could hit GDP by more than 5% and send the UK into recession, it might not be a good moment to hit the pause button on the government’s commitment to ending transition at the end of the year, Sunak went into swivel-eyed Europhobe. The EU were an untrustworthy bunch of bastards and getting shot of them – even if it cost a million more jobs – was a price more than worth paying. Nothing would stop us leaving on December 31st. Not mass starvation. Not mass unemployment. Nothing. It was his commitment to the British people to make them as poor as was necessary. Maybe, Mr Nice Guy had been reading some of Boris’s old War Picture Library comics after all.

I think the data I've seen suggests that the real number of deaths is possibly at least a third higher than the official hospital death figure.

I just saw some excess mortality figures for Madrid which suggests that the official death toll in March was a significant underestimate. :(

But it will vary hugely between regions. The French mortality stats in March only showed a couple of areas (île de France and the Mulhouse area) with a significantly higher mortality rate than usual. Areas without big clusters might even see a fall in mortality due to fewer road deaths.

"Areas without big clusters might even see a fall in mortality due to fewer road deaths."

Misti I was wondering that when we've discussed comparing total deaths for the same period in 2020.

It's difficult to disentangle CV from that, because the lockdown affected so many other kinds of deaths too

• and for some countries might even cause an overall reduction !

⬆️
suicides
domestic murders
alcohol-related accidents at home
Non-CV illness & accident at home not treated in time

⬇️
murders outside the immediate family
alcohol-related accidents & fights
work accidents
traffic accidents
flu !!

Long term deaths from things like kidney problems unrelated to Covid-19 (due to dialysis machine shortages) or cancer (due to later diagnosis and referral) or managed conditions where planned surgery was due might well go up. But since that's medium to long term rather than short term we have no way of measuring this at present.

As an aside from COVID but linked, what do people think of Universal Basic Income, if our govt doesn't decide that we need to push all schools back to Open in June? We touched on it (well, I bought it up) at uni and was told that it would never work by a lecturer I still think thought I was talking about Universal Credit . From a Public Health point of view, and to stop people rushing out to get infected, it might be something to consider if this govt decide not to practice eugenics? I think after a couple of months we will get calls to rethink funding options (i.e when the GBP realise how long it takes to get any £ at all when "on benefits")? I think this could be led, in part, by the army of single dads who are on the minimum SE income to pay any maintenance at all...

BCF it is very interesting how many will be safer at home. I would suggest actually women are less safe than men at home? Domestic violence being the main difference for women. For men they tend to take more risks in general and so would likely be safer at home. For the economy, considering how much alcohol costs the high street/NHS/days off sick in non-productive "sickness" and mental health when at home vs at work might swing it? It depends if people really are getting sozzled at home at 10am as they say on social media, or if they are, whether they are safer than if they did it on a busy high street (i.e unable to get into a fight/break windows and get arrested). It will be a very interesting thing to dissect on a local level.

I've had some wine tonight and the dog is all over me, so I may not be being very succinct

TheLittleRedToothBrush isn't a strange copy of our red. Has a sweet in the end story but not sweet prior behind the name change to that though, but I'm guessing neither have met in MN terms!

Coronavirus: Temporary mortuary already taking bodies despite not yet being finished

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-temporary-mortuary-at-birmingham-airport-almost-finished-11970560

Police say part of the facility is now in use "as deaths in the West Midlands increase, and mortuaries reach capacity".

Long term deaths from things like kidney problems unrelated to Covid-19 (due to dialysis machine shortages) or cancer (due to later diagnosis and referral) or managed conditions where planned surgery was due might well go up. But since that's medium to long term rather than short term we have no way of measuring this at present.

In cluster areas deaths from other causes will certainly rise.

But there will be less-affected places, where health services are still functioning more or less normally, which see fewer deaths of young people from transport, work and sport related injuries, and fewer deaths of the very old and very young from non-covid infectious illness.

I imagine that my elderly neighbours' risk of dying from pneumonia have actually fallen not risen this year.

Anecdotal but health services here are still functioning fairly normally. I was supposed to go to hospital today for follow up on my broken wrist. They wanted to see me but I cancelled. And my OH had a telephone consultation with his neurologist yesterday.

Signs that Cummings may be back at work. Someone has drawn a rainbow and stuck it in the window of 10DS, with the slogan, "We are all in this together."

So nicely on-message kiddie who has immaculate joined-up writing, or pathetic attempt at spin by someone deliberately drawing a rubbish rainbow, all the wrong colours, to make it look like a kid did it.

They caught on a bit late that they could catch it too, didn't they? Maybe it's Priti; she has had to clarify she is still working...