Westminstenders: A test of logistic planning

[RedToothBrush]

We are witnessing a demonstration in Government crisis management.

For the past week journalists have asked the same questions and politicians have said they've already done it / are doing it in the near future. But as time wears on, the inability to produce the answers or demonstrate results is proving illusive.

This will have consequences.

It is a demonstration in how planning has proved to be lacking in certain areas.

With Brexit in mind, the lack of vision, coordination with business and wider capability and capacity this does not bode well.

Monday Papers:

Only the Times managed to get BJ into its 1st edition for tomorrow
Rapid change of story can be expected for the others

They'd be managing Johnson at Downing Street unless he was really ill. He has obviously had regular medical attention, more than most "mild" cases would receive (rightly so: like him or loathe him, he's the PM).

If he's in hospital then he has pneumonia + he's been assessed to have symptoms that put him at additional risk of further deterioration.

Agreed Mistigri. And this will be very frightening for people who aren't able to get themselves admitted to hospital despite symptoms deteriorating. Why him and not them? They should be clear and honest with the public as to exactly what symptoms he had that required admission to hospital and he shouldn't be given a place that someone in a worse state than him was refused.

He's the PM. Of course he should get different treatment to everyone else.

Even if you despise him (and I do) you should still want him to get the best treatment and recover quickly, because (a) stability and continuity of govt important in a crisis and (b) Dominic fucking Raab.

Sterling looking shaky on the news because whatever your views of Johnson, him being unable to lead at best, or on a ventilator/dead at worst - is bad news.

I don't think getting different treatment is right, no. Gut the NHS and you deserve to deal with a gutted NHS when you fall ill. My stepfather is very ill with it and can't get seen and that's through no fault of his own. I don't think Boris Johnson should have better, no. I don't wish ill on him but I don't care more about him than I do about innocent people.

PS it's taken me overnight to get to this position. I admit that my first, instinctive, emotional response was "meh" ... but that's not right.

I can definitely see your position. Mine is that rich and overpriced politicians on the right have been massively shielded from any consequences of their cruel decisions while other segments of society most notably the poor and disabled suffer. As long as this shielding continues nothing will change.

No 10 spinning it as not an emergency admission, but precautionary for tests. CT scan perhaps?

I'd expect the PM whoever they were to get the first space in the Bunker after the Royal Line. Same in terms of health because its not just about their health. Their health is a matter of national stability and security. Do you really fancy another Tory leader election in these circumstances (and I include the prospect of one in the future with an interim leader during this crisis)? The briefings against each other and the political point scoring that goes with it? And as Mistigri says Dominic fucking Raab.

Or do you think we should have a lottery only system for The Bunker in the name of equality, risking that you fail to get enough people with key skills for life after in their too, not just royals and political leadership.

Yes it sucks, yes we should have a better health service for all, yes our political leadership is dreadful but I'm realistic about the alternative and how the effects of that really would put us in a worse situation. The chaos of it would be harmful.

Johnson dying doesn't benefit you or me is the bottom line. Quite the opposite.

Barrique the spin last night said he was in for tests and he would stay in hospital for as long as necessary.

There's a degree of expectation management contained in there.

If it was purely for tests with no additional concern over how ill he is, then I would say why say he would stay in hospital as long as necessary?

They are desperate to say he didn't use an ambulance and its all precautionary to keep the public calm and for security reasons.

I think he's not as ill as normal admissions for everyone else but I do think he is really quite ill and they are concerned that having shown no improvement he is high risk that he will deteriorate.

They don't want to risk a blue light situation. There are practical reasons for this and security reasons for it.

If he's not out by the end of the day, I expect he may be in hospital for a short period.

Agreed - hence me using the term “spinning it”.

I think he's not as ill as normal admissions for everyone else but I do think he is really quite ill and they are concerned that having shown no improvement he is high risk that he will deteriorate.

I think he probably is as ill as a normal admission. People are still being admitted for milder cases if they have additional risk factors such as living alone or other 'frailty' issues which increase the risk that they won't get timely help in an emergency.

In contrast Johnson is well supported and has plainly been receiving regular care from his doctors.

But he has risk factors - obesity, for starters.

If he's in hospital it's because the limits of care that can safely be provided at Downing St have been reached.

This article clearly explains that 80% of people recover after a week, but those who don’t and who get admitted to hospital have usually reached the second stage of the illness where the immune system goes into overdrive and attacks the organs. I didn’t know all this.

Boris Johnson's hospital admission suggests virus may have progressed

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/johnsons-hospital-admission-suggests-virus-may-have-progressed

But otherwise agree with everything RTB wrote.

Hopefully Johnson is just in for IV medication and oxygen and he'll be discharged with close monitoring by this evening.

But he's at the phase in the illness where people especially those with risk factors are known to deteriorate catastrophically in a short space of time, so my instinct is that he'll be kept in for a few days.

Absolutely. Boris's death or long-term incapitation would be a disaster within a disaster beyond the sorrow of anybody falling ill from this awful virus.

Power vacuums never create a good result.

Mixed feelings on Calderdale, but on balance I do think she had to go. As we see on here, a great many people have at least thought of doing something outwith the rules or spirit of the rules on the basis that they can do it safely, won't pass on the infection etc...and on an individual level, they may or may not be correct. However, it's when everyone thinks the same thing we have a problem.

Financial Times @financialtimes
As Italy faces its most severe crisis since the second world war, even its pro-European elite feel abandoned. Without bold action from its northern neighbours, Italy risks turning its back on the European project forever

amp.ft.com/content/f21cf708-759e-11ea-ad98-044200cb277f?__twitter_impression=true
Coronavirus: Is Europe losing Italy?
Furious at their plight being ignored and over resistance to coronabonds, Italians’ sense of betrayal deepens

There are already signs that Italian faith in the EU has been damaged. In a survey conducted last month by Tecnè, 67 per cent of respondents said they believed being part of the union was a disadvantage for their country, up from 47 per cent in November 2018.

And

Southern European expectations of a rapid demonstration of solidarity from the rest of the EU early in the pandemic were not met, even if the bloc has subsequently ramped up its assistance including financial aid and equipment.

“I hope everything can be fixed, but the loss of reputation is huge,” says Mr Tusk, who is now president of the European People’s party, the centre-right political alliance. “We must save Italy, Spain and the whole of Europe and not be afraid of extraordinary measures. This is a state of emergency.”

Tusk sounds worried.

While article is troubling.

I am unsure as to how much an English line is being taken on this, but it doesn't sound good even taking that into account.

If he is actually sick (ie if he isn’t discharged today), I would expect him to be in for a few weeks, tbh. And not be fit to return to work when he does get discharged.

But yes, unlikely to die.

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
Boris Johnson will stay in hospital for ‘as long as he needs to’, Robert Jenrick says

Asked if the PM will spend another night in hospital, he says he will ‘take the advice’ of doctors

‘He has worked incredibly hard. For him it will be frustrating he has had to go to hospital’

Again that phrase. As long as he needs to.

I think he will be in hospital for a while.

What's interesting in this is anyone who has had it (me!) goggle a lot and read NHS websites. I have read nowhere that if you still have symptoms after a week, you should be concerned and seek further help (in fact, they only added a call 999 option to NHS 111 website quite recently: when I was ill that was not in the guidance at all). A number of people have died in isolation because they feel they need to soldier on. Because Boris is PM , he is getting way more medical advice and attention than the rest of us. In some ways that is helpful because it may alert some people to the fact that if you still feel like shit and have a high temperature after your 7 days is up, you should seek further help. Must say, I doubt your average Joe would get it though.

I think one of the problems now with Johnson's illness is that there has been so much spin, and so many lies followed by denials about past events, that now no one knows what to believe. If he'd been a man noted for his integrity, this wouldn't have happened.

Piggy it's a feature of health inequality that those who are informed and educated get better health care. It's not unique to Covid-19.

You would expect people who have less internet skills / access to be much more poorly informed than those who are in this crisis.

That means the elderly and ethnic minorities with English as a second language to be particularly disadvantaged. (life expectency in some ethnic groups in UK is lower due to health inequality already)

There are also cultural issues at play here too. The tendency of elderly Muslims in Birmingham to keep going to the Mosque for example.

Or even the fact that men tend to seek medical intervention later than women. (Would this in part be a contributing factor to number of men dying?)

Lack of access to information and health inequality is a pattern that repeats itself through out the world and for every medical issue.

For him it will be frustrating he has had to go to hospital’

Absolute tosh. When you are really ill, you don't have any energy to be frustrated, you just don't want to feel so ill. Frustration is likely to kick in at the convalescent stage, where you feel better but overdoing it can lead to a relapse.

On the plus side...

We now have a public, gold-plated example of what happens when you don't take the distancing guidelines seriously. Johnson was shaking hands long after he knew it was a threat.

It's not something I would dream up, but may help convince people to stay he over Easter weekend.

Fucking liars think the public are thick. ("well they did vote for us...)

So cabinet is now meeting online but BJ who remains in charge is not taking part. And then he will not meet Starmer as he promised on Saturday afternoon because of an entirely routine trip to hospital on Sunday night when they see all the routine non-emergency appointments in the middle of a global pandemic crisis.

Oh, and BJ is still in charge but Raab is in charge, and Gove definitely isn't in charge.

Fucking Liars. Fucking Liars. Fucking Liars.

...and before we start slagging off Muslims, four of the first five medics to die were Muslims.