Westminstenders: The Mask is Slipping

[RedToothBrush]

This week has seen the department of the Chancellor who launched a 50p piece, the serious contemplation of a tin pot bridge, the rebirth of eugenics as a subject for cabinet, the announcement of the end of the BBC as we know it, the cabinet chanting after the PM in a way Orwell would be proud of, suppression of a report into trade deals which dares to mention the effect of distance and geography, worrying signs of an ever growing rift with Europe over negotiations for a deal, an appointment which starts to make our membership of the ECHR look very dodgy and there have been rather a lot of floods which so far seemed to have escaped the attention of those in London busy in their own swamp.

It's becoming apparent very quickly just how Trump like our new government are and how they want the UK to emulate the very worst aspects of America.

We are falling fast and its not looking like it will be pretty.

All we need is a major global issue to test our national resilience and the incompetence will truly be laid bare for us all to see... But not necessarily speak of. Such us the way it works.

Brexit Britain is not a nice looking prospect.

Why would people want to pay shed loads to come to a country that is so clearly xenophobic ?

I’ve often wondered that. There are hundreds of threads on here saying what an awful country this is, so racist and xenophobic, yet people want to come here.
Are prospective arrivals not warned about how awful it is by friends or family who are here?

The thing I find so devastating about all of this..... is there any sector that is not going to be destroyed? Manufacturing, farming, banking (probably) service industry (won't be able to get labour) - it's like they are determined to destroy the economy and people's livelihoods by a thousand cuts.

There attitude seems to be - but we'll be alright.

Blair is so good at identifying - and the communicating in simple terms - the issue with identity politics.

I'm now convinced that identity politics is absolutely poison for progressive Parties such as Labour, that require broad-based support.

Identity politics, at base, is a substitute for class-based politics.

And that's OK, in so far as they are run in tandem with class-based politics (as a supplement).

But right now, they run in lieu of class-based politics - indeed, in lieu of any serious analysis of structural inequality - and that mean they inevitably (and I mean 'inevitably') deliver working class voters to non-progressive Parties.

They look like an easy win for Progressive Parties - but they are an elephant-trap.

Anyway, the Hone Office and Windrush ... I suspect they're going to see a bit of re-structuring.

And there's no Ipposition to hold this government in check.

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/20/tory-mps-to-warn-against-raising-fuel-duty-in-budget?__twitter_impression=true
Tory MPs to warn against raising fuel duty in budget
Backbenchers alarmed at plan under consideration to increase tax by about 2p a litre

A group of Tory MPs is planning to warn the Treasury against a mooted rise in fuel duty at the budget, amid wider alarm within the party that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are prepared to raise taxes on 11 March.

Backbench MPs plan to write to the chancellor calling for a fuel duty cut or freeze and highlighting Johnson’s claims during the election campaign that he had “no intention” of raising fuel duty, which was repeatedly frozen during George Osborne’s years as chancellor.

And

Howard Cox, the co-founder of the Fair Fuel campaign, said he had been told an increase in fuel duty was under consideration, driven by Johnson’s senior adviser, Dominic Cummings, before the Cop26 climate summit due to be held in Glasgow in November. Cox said it would “hit lower-income families” and predicted a huge backlash among Tory MPs.

Cummings supports the tax increase. Tory backbenchers don't.

First clash about tax raises versus low taxation.

Surely most taxes hit those on lower income harder unless specifically targeted at the wealthy which Tories know is kiss of death. A fuel tax can be presented as 'green' medicine

Spot on cat. Couldn't phrase it better. Identity politics is bullshit.

I think it was well spelt out in BBC documentary which I forget the name of. It highlighted how identity politics at BBC was leading to opportunities for ethnic minorities but they tended to be people who came from middle class backgrounds and this largely came at the expense of recognising disadvantage due to class. Entry into the profession became much more middle class and this has had an affect on journalism because of an inability to see certain issues which affect people from working class backgrounds more.

It's very true that participation in media for the BAME community was needed. The problem is that it didn't come at the expense of the already massively over represented privately educated upper middle classes within the industry. And it gave the industry the excuse to turn a blind eye to other inequalities by saying 'hey look how progressive we are. Look how much we are giving opportunities to disadvantaged groups'.

I think once you see how toxic identity politics are and how blinded by their own self righteousness it makes people, its very hard to unsee. This very much comes over as arrogance and is the essence that largely is driving the culture war.

The trouble is that rather than it being directed at the over represented individuals its directed at those seen to be 'taking over' thus fuelling racism. So it's a completely counter productive strategy if there is a complete failure to recognise the class dynamics at play too.

The whole pulling up the economic ladder after social climbing is very much part of this dynamic too unfortunately. Those at the top have a better ability to protect their own privileged position rather than wishing to move more to a society based on merit. Hence why ultimately, the Tories won the last election.

That's not going to change any time soon.

The thing I find so devastating about all of this..... is there any sector that is not going to be destroyed? Manufacturing, farming, banking (probably) service industry (won't be able to get labour) - it's like they are determined to destroy the economy and people's livelihoods by a thousand cuts.

There attitude seems to be - but we'll be alright.

This upsets me too, and what I really don't get is why would you want to be the PM or in the cabinet of a country whose international reputation has just nosedived because of you? What's the point in having all the power and status of PM, if globally you've just reduced your country's power? It seems so self-defeating.

I guess it's just because a small group of people can make loads of money from it. Bastards.

A fuel tax can be presented as 'green' medicine

Hey look how progressive we are being.

It's not a bad selling point to a certain more middle class voter...

Blair talks sense on the trans issue, but I think Iraq damaged him irretrievably, so no one listens.

Indeed Peregina.

Unfortunately.

He got other things wrong too, like pfi. And that means he can be right on everything else until the end if time, but no one will listen.

Anyway thought I'd post this as it highlights corruption and conflict of interest going on and at whose expense. RE Grenfell

Peter Apps @peteapps
Private Eye continuing to pay attention to the detail not the headlines in the Grenfell Tower Inquiry. This is worth a read.

And one from their archives (2018) which I was reminded of this week:

Expect a lot more of this under Johnson.

This is the prerennial problem for any chancellor
(or Cummings if he is pulling everyone's strings)

When the current tax take isn't sufficient, which taxes should be raised ?

Income tax is always unpopular
Raising the standard rate would be very unpopular with most people
Hitting only those on 85k+ is against Tory principles

Cutting public services which are already on their knees ?
Cutting benefits - which have already been cut, causing great hardship to the most vulnerable ?

Sell off something ?
Well, there's the BBC
What else hasn't already been privatised ? And it's a one-off solution anyway

Thatcher had the great boon of North Sea / Scottish oil, but that was a once in a century bonus to the nation - totally squandered

Borrow more ?
The UK has had a budget deficit nearly every year, for as far back as I remember

We're in a pickle - a worse pickle after 10 years of The Party of Business in government

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UnitedKingdommnationaldebt

As of Q1 (the first quarter of) 2018, UK debt amounted to £1.78 trillion, or 86.58% of total GDP,
at which time the annual cost of servicing (paying the interest) the public debt amounted to around £48 billion
(which is roughly 4% of GDP or 8% of UK government tax income).

So this is why a chancellor will always be looking attaxes on fuel, alcohol, cigarettes

Consumption taxes - unlike income taxes - can be used to fleece the smug elite that thought they "didn't have to work again". It's the perfect way to get at any "untaxed" income and to claw back any tax breaks people may have been given in the past.

Everyone - and their money - is going to work in Brexit Britain.

Blair made huge mistakes, but so have most other PMs - and being in office so long gave more time to cockup
imo, his main problem in being listened to is that his own party savaged him in a way that has not happened to previous PMs

Since the Tories hated him for winning 3 GEs, they piled in too - to make sure he stayed dead - and the combination completely destroyed his credibility
He has no base of support left

In contrast, John Major was criticised by Tory Brexiters for his remain views and opposing No Deal, but nothing like the vituperation against Blair
and it was so long after he left office that his rep remains

So this is why a chancellor will always be looking attaxes on fuel, alcohol, cigarettes

Against a backdrop of people driving less - plus electric cars (wait until the tax on electricity kicks in ...), drinking less and smoking less ... knowing that every penny will act as a deterrent to getting any more, as people will:

drive even less;
drink even less;
smoke even less (or give up);

The last one is interesting, as in net terms the smoking ban - bought in for our own good - has cost the UK at least a couple of pennies on income tax (or a raise in the VAT rate). As usual opponents totally and utterly managed to find the wrong tack when it was debated. No one gives a stuff about anyones personal liberty. All they needed to do was run a campaign saying "are you happy to pay for the smoking ban ?"

Also I notice a few sites selling tobacco seeds in the UK have sprung up of late. Which is exactly what I would expect when you reach a certain point in the tax cycle.

I can't see there being any relief from the old duty free either. In 20 years time the BBCs successor will be running a "Timeshift" on "Fun, ferries and fags: the great British Booze Cruise"

cat
I always nod so vigorously at your posts I've decided it counts as exercise

I am currently still waiting for test results for a condition thst could leave me with permanently impaired vision...the eye clinics I've attended since January 1st have been so busy thst people are standing/queuing in the corridors.

The nhs will not survive this cummings govt.

DGR - it's not as simple as to say that the reduced tax take from cigarettes has put pennies on to other taxation as the smoking ban has had a demonstrable beneficial effect on health, with fewer heart attacks and a reduction in admissions for asthma attacks, so that is a saving - both to the NHS and the cost to society (fewer sick days).

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/smoking-ban

https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/smoking-bans-linked-to-fewer-heart-attacks-and-strokes/ - a slightly more cautious endorsement of the various studies.

DGR - it's not as simple as to say that the reduced tax take from cigarettes has put pennies on to other taxation as the smoking ban has had a demonstrable beneficial effect on health, with fewer heart attacks and a reduction in admissions for asthma attacks, so that is a saving - both to the NHS and the cost to society (fewer sick days).

Oh, it is that simple. And you have just dropped the other shoe - the improved (and unexpected) life expectancy. Which meant more going out in pensions, and a lot more going out in end-of-life medical and associated costs. Which drove a coach and horses through any 20,30 and 40 year forecasts the treasury had been working to.

(sniffs)

I did say net - it's a complex formula. But overall, you can be sure there is more money going out as a result of an initiative which reduced money coming in. Someone has to fill the gap. And that's the rest of that.

Obviously, overall it's a good thing that fewer people are going to die the horrible deaths that smoking causes. And that we are all going to help pay for that. But it would never have happened in England if it had been framed that way. Maybe Scotland, yes. But we all know how incredibly picky the English are over anything which benefits someone else.

Did anyone see this in City AM?

Downing Street is preparing to break away from the EU on food safety at an upcoming WTO summit, in yet another breach of transition rules within the Withdrawal Agreement.

No 10 stress testing the limits again.

And at the same time there won't be a meeting with Trump before June.
Looks like we're crashing out without a deal with anyone.
Is China in fact pulling the strings?

This just makes me more and more annoyed that all the Opposition parties let Johnson have his election. We were on the point of winning the argument and the price of putting up with 'denying democracy, Remoaners' etc. would have been a price worth paying.

So if we break away from EU food safety, bang go any UK exports to the EU. Will they be replaced by ones to the US ? I won't hold my breathe.

So now we have to let Johnson unleash whatever horrors he wishes on us. Part of me hopes that the Leavers get what they wish for, but it won't be Farage, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Deadwood Redwood who suffer, they will find a way to cushion their cash.

Yes peregrina. Labour was useless and I loathe Momentum with a passion. Libdems were truly unforgivable and the SNP gave up on the UK. What a bitter let down.

as in net terms the smoking ban - bought in for our own good - has cost the UK at least a couple of pennies on income tax

Based on what?

Even the IEA - that hotbed of tobacco harm and climate change deniers - said in 2017 that the smoking ban has saved the government a net £20 billion.

As DG posted, I had also read that the smoking ban saved people dying early - and hence increased the time they draw pensions.

End of life tends to cost the NHS money, whether it's a premature death or at 90

It is always right to try to reduce human suffering & misery

• smoking absolutely devastated my father's side of the family, with him, my uncles and GP all getting lung cancer or heart disease in their 40s

However, it may be that smokers cost the state less than living to a ripe old age