Given that up to 20% of the population who do get it will require intensive treatment, what do you think that will do to the NHS? Or social care? It's going to be interesting to see how the Government manage that one...
From the (dubious) information we have so far, the largest study so far of over 44,000 cases had the death rate of over 80s at 14%. In males over 60, it was put at 6%.
Now there has to be a very large pinch of salt here but that would have a big impact on hospitals and social care. Most of the severe cases would follow a similar pattern.
But deaths wouldn't just be from an epidemic. Itd would be people dying from other things not able to get adequate care.
This politically would be something of a disaster for the Conservative Party... Could be have positive effects for housing crisis, pensions and health care long term though (if you want to be really grim about it). So Johnson is going to have to pull his finger out with a solution if it does get bad...
DGR re fertility: COVID-19 acts on the ACE-2 receptors, and these are expressed in the testes in men. One effect of the disease is testicular lesions. So there are concerns about the effect of the disease on male fertility. At the moment the most serious cases are in older people with children seemingly not too affected. But we don't know the long term effects and researchers are concerned about this area.
I think I'm more concerned about how this plays out globally at this stage. The situation in Iran looks bad. With a case that has already spread from Iran to Lebanon being reported today.
Imagine what happens if it spreads across the border to Syria. The effect on those in refugee camps with no formal governance or hospital care could be devastating especially if many are already in poor health. Fear of 'the plague' here could provoke new waves of migration to Europe where there is healthcare. Lots of refugees are getting stuck in Bosnia and Serbia causing rising tensions there. And then there places in Greece already struggling with massive numbers. Large numbers of people moving whether tgey are infected or not is going to be a big political issue. These people being 'off radar' are also likely to spread it.
I also dread to think of the effects in the US. The number of homeless in cities like San Fran is scary. Deaths here aren't going to be just the virus. And don't think of the medical bills...
The economic effects of china's shut down is starting to ripple through too. I've seen reports that apple's revenue could be down by 40 to 50% in Q2. And there the travel industry which could suffer enormously. We don't know yet what we could get shortages of from imports. I do think that there will be issues in this area because they are already in the pipeline because of China. There have been riots in Ukraine over the location of a quarantine centre.
The death rate or the hospitalisation rate aren't going to be the only issues. Fear itself is something we probably will have to contend with as people are going yo get very scared as the news stories start to get bigger and closer to home. Plus there will be economic fall out of what's already happened. For example imports of pork in China have completely collapsed.
Yes I am concerned. But not a lot you can do to mitigate any of it. And what happens in the UK isn't the only thing you should have your eyes on.