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Brexit

How can remainers get behind Brexit and pull together ?

368 replies

frumpety · 03/02/2020 20:32

What does this mean in practical terms ? What do I need to actually do to achieve pulling together and getting behind Brexit ? Why does it matter if I and the rest of the 48 million don't ?

OP posts:
Peregrina · 05/02/2020 11:05

It turns out that I was wrong, attributing the statement to David Davis but a two second search using the term "david davis trade deals in an afternoon" produces this link which clearly shows that there were people who thought trade deals could be so easy:

www.indy100.com/article/no-deal-brexit-adequate-food-boris-johnson-david-davis-dominic-raab-8463121 and at least one who thought sitting down in an afternoon over a cup of tea would be sufficient.

WhatKatyDidNot · 05/02/2020 11:34

the Chinese will quietly have moved in and we will be the vassal of China, before BJ and cronies wake up to what has happened

The US is going to be a subordinate state to China within the next ten years! We're in the phase where world power is shifting once again, the first since the aftermath of WWII. We none of us, Leavers and Remainers alike, know how that's going to turn out. I agree that an unrequited love of the US is probably Boris's Achilles heel (although 5G decision does imply he has some awareness).

We're not choosing between the US and the EU, we're trying to find a place in an uncertain future world hierarchy in which both the US and the EU will matter less than before.

jasjas1973 · 05/02/2020 12:26

Totalitarian states like China will never succeed long term, just look at the mess they are making with Coronavirus?

Total Chinese debt is 300% of GDP

Allowing Huawei to be part of 5G is utter madness, the UK's future should and will (eventually) be bound to Europe, its our continent and we need to be leading within europe too &until that happens, my views on Brexit won't change, so i can't support the new course Johnson has set us on.

prettybird · 05/02/2020 12:28

Ignore him. He gets off on the attention.

RuffleCrow · 05/02/2020 12:31

I think it's for leavers to sell it to us and win us over tbh.

Getting behind Brexit when no-one has yet identified any positives for the average joanna is like picking the crappiest team in the league and cheering every time they concede a goal. Hmm

MysteryTripAgain · 05/02/2020 12:35

I think it's for leavers to sell it to us and win us over tbh

It is the task of government to implement the vote, not the voters.

when no-one has yet identified any positives

They have, just remain don't agree or like those presented by leavers.

WhatKatyDidNot · 05/02/2020 12:36

Totalitarian states like China will never succeed long term, just look at the mess they are making with Coronavirus?

The Chinese will own world trade within the next few years. Have you seen the belt and road infrastructure? The AIIB? (And the fuss the US made when the UK joined AIIB, for that matter). Power is shifting eastwards.

cologne4711 · 05/02/2020 12:39

I agree that an unrequited love of the US is probably Boris's Achilles heel (although 5G decision does imply he has some awareness)

I was quite surprised that he didn't kowtow to the US on that.

Totalitarian states like China will never succeed long term

Since about 1948? Seems quite long term to me.

cologne4711 · 05/02/2020 12:43

My stepdaughter studied in France and Germany (Business and Languages Degree) to keep her options for work in UK and the EU

It paid off. When the UK company she worked for folded she found a job in Germany

But that option will be closed to British citizens from the end of this year. So if they can't get a job here, and they don't have the skillset to be allowed into the US or Australia (or China!) their options will be limited.

RuffleCrow · 05/02/2020 12:43

You're not addressing the actual points i've made @MysteryTripAgain you're editing them to provide you with a foil to your own opinions. Don't @ me until that changes.

Peregrina · 05/02/2020 12:48

Totalitarian states like China will never succeed long term

Rees-Mogg has told us that we won't know if Brexit has been a success until 50 years have passed, I strongly suspect that China will still be around then and still be powerful. I can 100% guarantee that I won't be.

MysteryTripAgain · 05/02/2020 13:02

You're not addressing the actual points i've made

I think it's for leavers to sell it to us and win us over tbh

It is government's task to implement the vote, not the voters.

I still can't work out how remain supporters haven't worked out that the outcome, good or bad, effects everyone regardless of how they voted.

when no-one has yet identified any positives

Here goes again

Democracy was preserved in that vote was acknowledged. Without democracy differences of opinion are decided by who has the most effective weapons.

UK now has the opportunity to make trade deals with any Country in the World. EU is only 15% of World trade. That will shrink as China and India move up the ladder.

UK has trade deficit with the EU which is continually growing. If more money flows out of the UK than flows into the UK how is that good for the UK? Imagine the consequences for a household whose expenditure was always greater than its income?

UK has a trade surplus with non EU.

Peregrina · 05/02/2020 13:08

A typical nothing style answer from Mystery. We could do trade deals with x, y, z, blah, blah, blah. Why weren't we already doing them? What do we make that other countries will want to buy?

This is very much a Liz Truss answer who bleated about potential trade deals with the US when the Ceramics industry wanted to know what protection their existing EU trade was going to be offered. On which matter she was silent. One would think that some people do not know the saying that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

MysteryTripAgain · 05/02/2020 13:16

Why weren't we already doing them

As a previous member of the EU the UK was not permitted to make deals direct with countries outside the EU. They all had to pass through the EU commission.

Article 50 apparently did not allow the UK to even enter into discussions about new trade deals until it had left the EU.

What do we make that other countries will want to buy?

That question should have been subject of a feasibility study before the referendum was called. Over the next few months I would hope to see a simple table with three columns.

Country Goods/Services Needed that UK have Revenues

If revenues achieved exceed the difference between UK's defict with the EU and the surplus with non EU then Brexit is a huge success.

Emilyontmoor · 05/02/2020 14:09

Hmm quite a lot of [aubergine / shower emoji copyright TheElementsOdeToJoy] being talked about China on here. China does not want to undermine the EU, Xi said that the brexit (or whatever Cummings is calling it now) vote was a failure of stable government, proof democracy doesn't work. It wants the EU in place as another power block between America, Russia and themselves. It also wanted the UK in the EU so that it could access European financial markets through the city of London, for instance for trading the RMB. Since passporting seems now to be likely to be [emoji / shower emoji] away by Cummings (because why would he want to support mainstream ethicalish financial services companies who contribute taxation revenue over complete shysters like his hedge fund mates who don't) they are now looking at alternative strategies.

The EU never stopped Britain trading with China. Germany does more trade with China than the UK, it wasn't the EU that was holding the UK back. The only reason that there isn't a EU / China trade deal is because the EU refused to allow the Chinese to continue unequal trading practises like flooding the market with cheap steel which protected the British economy.

China is not in a good position to take over the world economy, too many internal strains even before Coronavirus (which my money is on them containing as they did SARs now they have faced up to the problem, ironically because now being an even more authoritarian regime they can put millions into quarantine as they put millions of Uighur's into camps). However Xi has all his work cut out continuing to deliver prosperity and lifestyle to his middle classes and stopping the gap between them and the rural poor, many of whom are migrants to cities, becoming a political pressure point. That is what happened in Xinjiang, neutralising a rural source of dissent. But did he?

The Belt and Road initiative is designed to support that internal project, cementing economic stability through infrastructure ties. He knows better than to overreach himself into destabilising expansionism. Even his military strategy, the nuclear arsenal, the South China Sea islands is defensive. He could spend more on sabre rattling but he hasn't.

China should have imploded decades ago by any model of economic or political development. People have predicted both that and world domination but neither has happened. But Xi claims the mandate of a Confucian sage emperor and so far his and his predecessors strategies have been all about achieving stability. That is why he presents himself to the west as champion of liberal free trade and to his people as an authoritarian hard man. He will continue playing all sides against each other in the name of stability.

Emilyontmoor · 05/02/2020 14:14

Rufflecrow Its called a straw man " an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument" Why would Brexiteers resort to that so often Hmm

ContinuityError · 05/02/2020 14:21

If revenues achieved exceed the difference between UK's defict with the EU and the surplus with non EU then Brexit is a huge success.

This is just nonsense. 85% of UK trade currently goes to the EU or through EU PTAs with other countries. Even trade with the US is via 100 EU-USA agreements.

MysteryTripAgain · 05/02/2020 14:29

This is just nonsense. 85% of UK trade currently goes to the EU or through EU PTAs with other countries

That figure is very different to.

fullfact.org/europe/does-most-uk-trade-happen-outside-eu-and-trade-agreements/

or through EU PTAs with other countries. Even trade with the US is via 100 EU-USA agreements

They will continue on WTO until new deals are made

Peregrina · 05/02/2020 14:30

Such faith in the now no longer quorate WTO. Fine until a dispute arises, or until someone realises that they can engineer a dispute because the WTO is no longer functioning properly.

MysteryTripAgain · 05/02/2020 14:31

@Emilyontmoor

More like that posters only want to see posts that mirror their own.

ContinuityError · 05/02/2020 14:33

That figure is very different to [full fact].

Full fact doesn't take into account PTAs.

My figures are taken from Breugel research:

the total value of UK trade broken down according to the different types of trade agreements in place with each partner. Only 15% of UK total trade is currently with countries that are not members of the EU and are not covered by any EU trade agreements.

bruegel.org/2016/03/fog-in-the-channel-brexit-through-the-eyes-of-international-trade/

They will continue on WTO until new deals are made

But the UK still has to replicate all those 100 agreements to get back to where it is now.

MysteryTripAgain · 05/02/2020 14:41

@Continuity

The 85% you have quoted includes 21% of potential EU PTA's. Bit of a fudge. Take 21 from 85 leaves 64.

Songsofexperience · 05/02/2020 16:24

As a previous member of the EU the UK was not permitted to make deals direct with countries outside the EU. They all had to pass through the EU commission.

Why on earth would we want to make them directly if we have less leverage on our own and the outcome is worse???

Songsofexperience · 05/02/2020 16:25

It's an accepted leaver mantra that direct trade deals are preferable. I disagree.

ContinuityError · 05/02/2020 17:42

Bit of a fudge.

Not really. That article was written in March 2016. Since then PTAs with Singapore, Japan, South Africa, Georgia, Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique, Botswana and Lesotho have come into force, and agreements with Canada, Armenia, Kazakhstan have come into effect.

Just with Canada, Singapore, Japan and SA that's 10% of your total UK trade straight off.

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