Please can leavers please tell me how Brexit will benefit us?

[DaveGrohlsMuse]

Whenever this is asked mid-thread, it's never answered. There's plenty of information out there about how the UK had benefited from membership, but I really struggle to find info on how it's had a negative impact.
So in Jan 2021, once the transition period is over and we actually start to see the impact of the decision, what will improve? How will yours, and mine, and the general population's lives improve?

I am in the South East

I googled the reports you mentioned (thank you). I don’t have time to give them due attention, although I found the NIESR briefing interesting. www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/NIESR%20Briefing%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20EU%20Immigration.pdf.

Where I am, in my sector, older British workers are unable to compete economically with European workers. They are now virtually absent from the sites we are on. I see their applications amongst the scores of those from their better qualified, cheaper rivals. We pick the best and the cheapest. It just is.

When we tell people that their lived experience is wrong, they disbelieve everything else we say. So saying “EU membership has no tangible effect on low-skilled workers, Brexit will not solve your problems, but there are things we can do whilst remaining in the EU that can help” is not terribly effective. After all, if you’ve just told them you don’t believe they have a problem, why should they trust you to fix it?! When talking about Brexit I found it more useful to acknowledge people’s lived experience, acknowledge that less competition from EU workers would be a positive thing for their family AND THEN try to explain the case against Brexit.

Regarding the reports you mentioned. I’m skipping ahead of myself as I haven’t read them yet, but maybe the question isn’t what the figures show, but rather are the reports asking the right questions? Are sub-contractor’s wage included in these studies? The majority of our low-skilled workers are self employed and pay tax through the Construction Industry Scheme (so are trackable if we choose to look). This is the new normal for construction. What about the older workers who get priced out of the industry and move to another? Or become self employed? People are not making this up because they are racist (although I dare say that some become racist because they are accused of making this up)

I don’t actually believe that leaving the EU and ending freedom of movement will change anything. I believe it enabled it, but the problem was never the EU, it was the government’s unwillingness to give a shit about these people. Business continues to need cheap labour and will find a way to get it.

Maybe the government didn't think they had to spell it out to the electorate that they actually needed to think about what the tangible impact could be of leaving the EU, not just the fact that they didn't like what the Germans did in the war!

The government tried to spell out what they thought were the benefits of EU membership in the booklet they sent to all households. However, many had made their minds up beforehand based on what they saw in press and on TV.

Yes. So they can move manufacturing back to Japan.

Is that an admittance that the UK car manufacturing may come to an end? Just contradicts what you said elsewhere.

There's a very interesting article aimed at Americans in The Atlantic here:

www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-boris-johnson-influence-control/605734/

The problem is with lived experience is that people's prejudices get in the way, shaping their perspectives.

The sector you are in was importing Portugese Bricklayers in 2010 and 2011 at 1k per week because of shortages.

The Bank of England survey was the largest ever conducted, and was the one you cited with the 1.88 percent figure.

This frankly should Never have been put to a referendum

There was a referendum in 1975 whether or not UK should remain after already joining in 1973. So why not again in 2016?

Bigheads like Tony Blair said that people didn’t understand the complexities and hence no referendum. Foolish statement. If too complicated in 2016, why not too Complicated in 1975?

Blair was in power when UK opened the floodgates for immigration in 2004. Maybe had he not done so there may never have been a UKIP that spooked him into a referendum?

Referendum won by leave based mostly on immigration. Hence the reason why it was down to Blair.

@SuperFurryDoggy

“I repeat what I posted earlier. I am a staunch remainer and mourn the loss of our EU membership. I believe we could have solved these problems without leaving the EU and been so much stronger for it. I think we ended up here because we did had a growing class of people who felt they were not being listened too. I think we need to start listening now if we are to avoid an even sharper shift to the right.”

Absolutely agree. The parties on the left don’t seem to get this, not just labour but others too, Jo Swinson in particular - what a car crash. If the Labour Party wants to win again in the future then they have to start listening to their former core voters.

"floodgates'

Hyperbolic nonsense again.

If UKIP won it on immigration it did so with a campaign that was based on racism and xenophobia and designed to appeal to those who held the same values.

a campaign that was based on racism and xenophobia

Maybe there are significant numbers of such persons in the UK?

@Bathroom12345 I'm not denying that leave won the referendum and that a leave PM won the general election. I'm trying to find out how people who voted leave think that decision will make life better. Because surely they did think that, didn't they? Because making such a seismic change just to "stick it to the man" seems quite unbelievable.
But, reading through this, that's where why we're here right now. Because of "feels". FFS.

@malylis

“people can feel they are not listened to, but why should people be listened to when they put the blame for societal issues where it not to blame”.

I don’t know if that sentence is coming across as you intended. People feeling they weren’t being listened to, is exactly why we got Brexit and what is looking like it is going to be a right wing Tory government.

British people do not want to pick veg and wipe bottoms
at least not at the rate that British people are willing to pay for those services
go figure

How do you create policies to deal with issues that don't exist?

How do you deal with people who won't listen when you explain the reasons why their problems won't go away if the factor they blame is changed ?

Very interesting @TalbotAMan

For some reason it reminded me of this which contains a rather fabulous scan of a 1975 Daily Mail leader article in which they talk of membership of the EEC leading to greater political union. As a very positive thing. Even quoting Winston Churchill to drum the point home.

Of course in 1975 most voters had either lived through war in Europe or the decades of after effects.

@MysteryTripAgain look at this article. Apart from Boston, leave areas have the lowest levels of immigration, and vice versa. So if immigration was the key, which is what you state, then it's because of a perceived rather than actual threat. Which I'm going to assume is due to propaganda in the MSM.

Oops link here

theconversation.com/hard-evidence-how-areas-with-low-immigration-voted-mainly-for-brexit-62138

British people do not want to pick veg and wipe bottoms
at least not at the rate that British people are willing to pay for those services

No, I imagine they’d probably want a decent living wage for doing so.

Not the EU’s fault, but please let’s start listening to the people at the bottom of our food chain. Even if for no other reason than they have a vote.

Leaving the EU is shit, but the swing to the right and rise of populism is far scarier.

scan of a 1975 Daily Mail leader article in which they talk of membership of the EEC leading to greater political union

Ds2 told me that the quickest way to trigger his granddad was to remind him that he voted yes in 1975

Ive told him to stop triggering his granddad...

Those people earn minimum wage or more.

Unemployment in most big argri areas is very low.

Even if we take the 1.88 percent lower pay figure at face value pay isn't dramatically lower than it would be.

Superfurry
What makes you think that leaving the EU will protect them more ?

Minford's analysis shows that agriculture and manufacturing will be wiped out by a hard Brexit
everybody else thinks it will be worse

^Voting has 2 requirements only;

To be over voting age

Turning up at the polling station.^

You forgot not being deliberately excluded from the mandate.

Slightly derailing. SuperFurryDoggy I'd be interested to know if the younger European workers had better qualifications on paper i.e Diplomas or completed college courses in their chosen field. I ask this because DP is in the construction industry.

When we returned to the UK after an absence of over 20 years he found that he could not get work because he did not have paper qualifications but had over 25 years practical experience.

When he did get work on sites he found that some people with college qualifications often produced a poorer quality of work compared to those with practical experience.

Although being cynical I imagine that most companies employ younger workers because they can get away with paying them less.

@ListeningQuietly

What makes you think that leaving the EU will protect them more ?

I don’t. I voted remain. I have simply been trying to advocate for understanding.

EU membership bought disadvantages for some people. They may well have been balanced out by unseen advantages, but that doesn’t mean it was all roses.

I think it could have been fixed and that the majority of the country would have been better off.

I also think leaving is not the biggest problem we are currently facing. I am more worried about the threat posed by the growing divide in this country and the rise of populism.

@feellikeanalien

We are more engineering than construction, but one of the core skills I look for is a proven skill in using hydraulic benders (because mistakes are bloody expensive!) Bonus points to those who can install quickly in awkward spaces. There are no specific qualifications that help with this, so experience wins. However...

1. Once you get over about 5 years experience we don’t find much difference in performance, so someone at £X/hour with 5 years’ experience is more attractive than someone with £X+1/hour with 20 years’ experience. These roles are typically filled with self-employed subcontractors, so they set their own rates. But you are correct, it is because we can get away with paying them less.

1. We do need a certain minimum level of qualification in order to get the correct site safety (CSCS) cards. Main contractors are clamping down on the generic “labourer” type ones, so qualifications need to be relevant and high enough to qualify for an installer or supervisor card. Not having this would rule someone out. There have been changes to the site safety cards that come into effect this year which have made it even harder to work on any site without a relevant qualification. You used to be able to get around it by citing relevant experience. It’s too soon to be absolutely sure, but I think this will hit some older workers really hard

British people do not want to pick veg and wipe bottoms at least not at the rate that British people are willing to pay for those services go figure

So increase the wages. Cheaper than having millions of UK nationals claiming benefits whilst non UK nationals are taking the same jobs.