Brexit - the Good, the Bad and hopefully not the Ugly

[Bearbehind]

Following on the thread about how we will measure the successes or failures of Brexit, I’m just leaving this one here for people to record the successes and failures as they occur / as they see them

All welcome if you discuss the subject of the thread - this isn’t a thread for moaning about the fact Brexit is happening! 😁

I think they should abolish the £5K but bring in a system whereby part of the fee debt is forgiven for each year they work in the NHS.
So, all fee debt forgiven after 6 or 7 years. If you don't work in the NHS then you pay the debt back.

Same with teachers, engineers or whatever the country needs. It could vary depending on the needs of the country. But the fees would remain so they could be moved up or down depending on shortages.

To go back to the original thread.
Good.....we will regain complete rights over fishing
Good.....no longer under the thumb of the EU legislative system

Jas They are getting anything between £5k and £8k in grants, if they are misusing this (and shopping is definitely in that category) then it’s not BJ spaffing this money up the wall.

Good.....we will regain complete rights over fishing

To be negotiated. Who knows whether Johnson will sell the fishermen down the river?

Good.....no longer under the thumb of the EU legislative system.
Under Transition, not so, but with no say. Afterwards - to some extent depending on whether you want to trade with EU countries or not. As for things like Arrest Warrants - again in the 'to be negotiated' box, but means you can't use the ECJ if or when it suits. I recall that David Davis had some legislation he took to the ECJ. After the Referendum he tried to disassociate himself from it, quick smart, but his name was still attached to the case.

NHS staffing has gone off a cliff edge in the last few years.

I'm not sure whether that was brexit or tories, i think it was mainly tory cuts but with a good dash of brexit xenophobia on top driving staff away.

There is no way to deliver safe care much of the time and it's shit. So. Many, many have left and are leaving. Plugging holes with locums is expensive and there aren't enough of them around now anyway.

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jan/27/third-of-uk-doctors-report-burnout-and-compassion-fatigue

Time
That 5 to 8k is eaten by rent and bills, my DD gets 7k, 5k is in rent/bills plus she needs a car for her work and to get to placement, doesn't leave a lot for shopping, unless you think its a luxury to go to Lidl's?

Copper Agree, though the 5k hasn't even been introduced yet - Sept 2020, wages have to increase rapidly, private sector pay can easily be twice that of the NHS, so negating paying back fees.

We cannot have full control over fishing, fish move about, if we over fish, that affects stocks elsewhere in non uk waters and vice versa, as always, will need international negotiation ie quotas!!!
So we have to, under UN law of the sea, negotiate access and sustainability with other nations....... sound familiar?

Regardless of ECJ, will still have to abide by international law (see above) and trade dispute mechanisms - as they say "no man is an island"

I understand your point on ECJ but we helped draft EU law, sat on the ECJ and it only really covered application of EU rules, now we don't any dispute mechanism or won't in 11 months, so will have to have another means of doing so... ceding control!

That 5 to 8k is eaten by rent and bills, my DD gets 7k, 5k is in rent/bills plus she needs a car for her work and to get to placement, doesn't leave a lot for shopping, unless you think its a luxury to go to Lidl's?

The grant itself is not my argument Jas but the way, as you stated yourself, some students are proposing to spend it is.

Not with me it's not. Where's the Russia report?

Maybe the same place as the Honda report about why the Swindon Plant was closed?

We won't gain complete rights over fishing. That'll be compromised on.

The UK/EU trade deficit isn’t going to improve due to leaving - the UK will continue to buy from the EU

I don't think the intent of Brexit was for the EU and the UK never to trade with each other again. For me leave was to enable UK to expand it's non EU trade. If UK's current trade surplus of 44 Billion it has with non EU countires can be increased to match the trade deficit UK has with the EU then the books are balanced. I can't convince myself that if money flowing out of the UK is consistently greater than that which flows in is good for the UK. However, economists seem to have different views on whether a deficit or a surplus is good or bad.

But where is UK's plan for such expansion into non EU Countries? Something myself and Peregina seemed to agree on. A list of Countries that UK has indentified that need services and goods that UK can provide and the anticipated revenues has not been seen yet.

Chances of a decent trade deal with the US have now dropped through the floor

Looks like Boris is trying to keep his fingers in too many pies at the same time. Priority should be to make a deal with the EU as it the closest and UK has over 40 years tradin experience with the EU.

Not sure if a trade deal with EU and US at same time is possible. Vastly different food standards may be the sticking point as many US food products, additives and colourings are not allowed in the EU.

Huwaei is a surpise. Is Boris trying to open the door for trade deal with China? If so how does he appraoch the US? However, could be that US is happy for the UK to be the first to experiment with China for observation of possible outcomes?

If Boris tries to juggle too may trade deals with the big players at the same time he may end with none at all.

We won't gain complete rights over fishing. That'll be compromised on

I agree. EU will want some access to UK fishing in return for UK services being sold in the EU.

Your post about trade deficit Mystery is misguided.

Our trade deficit with the EU is likely to get higher (it has done since the vote) whilst in 2016 44 percent of our exports went to the EU now its nearly 50 percent. We also trade with 50 something other countries under EU FTAs which make up 15 percent.

What are we going to sell other countries that they don't already provide themselves or have trade agreements for ?

Its going to be a challenge.

Our trade deficit with the EU is likely to get higher (it has done since the vote) whilst in 2016 44 percent of our exports went to the EU now its nearly 50 percent

If UK has increased its exports to the EU how is the trade deficit increasing? Would have thought an increase in exports to the EU reduces the trade deficit unless UK is buying a lot more from the EU since 2016?

What are we going to sell other countries that they don't already provide themselves or have trade agreements for

So far UK government has not answered that question. Hence my comment;

But where is UK's plan for such expansion into non EU Countries? Something myself and Peregina seemed to agree on. A list of Countries that UK has indentified that need services and goods that UK can provide and the anticipated revenues has not been seen yet

Boris should allocate that task to others while he concentrates on EU deal.

Logically your question would have been the subject of a feasibility study by the UK before Cameron announced there would be a referendum. Didn't happen as he thought remain support would be massively higher than leave.

because our exports from the EU have increased at a faster rate.

because our exports from the EU have increased at a faster rate

UK exports to the EU, not from the EU.

Likewise UK imports from the EU as opposed to imports to the EU.

If UK imports from the EU have increased at a faster rate than that of UK exports to the EU then the UK's trade deficit with the EU will have increased. This is one of the leave arguments to leave the EU so it can offset deficits with the EU with surplus from non EU. However, your question which non EU countries will UK target and with what has not been spelt out by the UK government.

UK imports have increased at a faster rate, sorry

That's the deficit is bigger. Also the devaluation of the currency following Brexit means that we pay a higher price for imports, PED for many inelastic so demand doesn't change much with price increasing. Leading to an increase in the deficit.

Marshall Learner condition.

It’s only cost the U.K. 0.39 per person, per day for their EU membership, 1.2% net of government spending. How can all the benefits be replaced?

Its actually lower than 1 percent of spending!

We WILL have complete control of our territorial waters then, is that better. Obviously the fish move around. They're fish ffs.

However, we are free to negotiate or not. We can choose. We are in control.
Of course we will negotiate, but when and how much is up to our own govt.

This is a positive.
If the fishing communities don't like whatever is negotiated they can get rid of their MP or at least vote them out at the next election.

Trade disputes will be handled by a court of arbitration, as always.

Parker, that £.39 per day for no benefits as far as I am concerned.
It is 39p to hold us in an inflexible, inefficient organisation that wants ever closer political union.
I'd rather give my 39p to charity.

So, another positive. I will not be wasting 39p per day.

Which court of arbitatration?

It’s only cost the U.K. 0.39 per person, per day for their EU membership, 1.2% net of government spending. How can all the benefits be replaced?

Its actually lower than 1 percent of spending

I think this has been answered before. If not here is the list of perceived benefits and successes of Brexit.

UK sovereingty restored
No more uncontrolled immigration
No more unelected EU commissioners making the rules
UK has defeated Germany again
UK continues to defeat the French

Laugh if you wish, but I know leavers who voted on such reasons. In some cases all five in the list

There are pages of reasons of benefits to the UK of EU membership so I can’t believe posters don’t think they benefit by at least 0.39 a day - FOM and supply chain for starters.

UK sovereignty never lost, but will be partly surrendered in all future trade details
More immigration from more distant countries, wanting to bring their families with them
More unelected UK Lords and "advisers" making the rules (for their paymasters)
UK is, and will continue to, losing business to Germany again
UK is, and will continue to, losing business to French

Bargain...

Buzz buzz. A couple of missing "be"s there.

There are pages of reasons of benefits to the UK of EU membership so I can’t believe posters don’t think they benefit by at least 0.39 a day - FOM and supply chain for starters

Many assumptions made in that statement such as;

Voters read the pages of reasons
Voters fully understood the reasons
Voters actually cared
Voters care about FOM
Voters care about supply chains
Voters were aware that EU membership costs 39p per day per person