How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

[Bearbehind]

I’ve been pondering this for ages now

In any ‘normal’ project you’d have targets, objectives, deadlines, reviews etc but for Brexit beyond 2 deadlines of 31/1/20 and 31/12/20 there’s nothing

People talk about politicians being accountable now but what do we expect them to deliver and by when

Oh but hang on I thought we wanted the brightest and the best? It's all so confusing.

Anyone would think there wasn't a plan, or any agreement on what a successful end goal would be.

The uncertainty was caused by threats (by the UK) of no-deal if May didn't get what she wanted from the EU....... remember "no-deal is better than a bad deal?"

TM said it 108 times, but all guff. Her deal was remain. That’s why she tried to keep the legal advice on her deal out of public scrutiny.

Brexit success will be - the pound higher than it was in June 2016

Flawed logic. A weaker pound makes exports cheap and imports more expensive. That is helpful for manufacturing industry.

Brexit failure will be - the pound lower than it was before the result

As above

The manufacturing industry will likely be out the customs union/single market so will have bigger concerns.

More expensive imports means more expensive food, clothing and white goods. Look forward to the brexiteers cheering that one.

We are a net importer though so on balance a weak sterling rate is detrimental to the UK as a whole

Flawed logic

Ahh the old good for exports chestnut.

Mystery, your posts are incredibly condescending and know it all. Correct/incorrect etc.

Your posts are also, in my opinion full of blame shifting, projection, gaslighting and also look there’s-a-squirrel-ery. It’s quite grating.

To the original question, a measure of its success would be how well both our farming and car manufacturers fare. Under no deal the outlook looks bleak from everything I’m reading. If these two sectors survive and thrive, then that’s a success, if they implode and there are large scale job losses then obviously not.

Success/failure could be judged on exchange rates.
But, as I posted earlier these things do not matter to many people.

If you are a EU national living here then, regardless of the currency you may consider the mere fact of Brexit to be a failure because of the cessation of FOM next year. I think there are a lot of people like this.

OTOH, if you just don't like the EU, what it has become, or like me you don't like being under the jurisdiction of the ECJ the the mere fact we are leaving next Friday is success.

I appreciate there are many other reasons on all sides but many of them are not related to trade or economics, or NI. And are difficult to measure.

Lonelycrab,
I think you are right.
It would be interesting to look at farming and the car industry.
But we would need to factor in
Increased use of electric vehicles and the changes and upskilling needed
Reduction in car use because of awareness of climate change and better use of public transport
Oil prices....Middle East situation could affect this.

For farming
Changes to diets...more vegans, less meat required
Less animal feed grown
Subsidies for environmental projects for wildlife.

Perhaps it could be done.

the mere fact we are leaving next Friday is success.

And there you have it, end game. No need to measure success because those who voted for Brexit will never never admit it hasn't worked. Even if we were all starving in a pile of rubble they would still be stating it was worth it for the freedom

I know it's not funny but somehow it just makes me laugh

Copper, that’s all well and good, but the infrastructures just for the switch to electric is light years off, it will require massive investment and a change in attitudes as you say.

And we like to eat meat, so again it’s a massive shift to get to where you’re talking about.

Which is quite different to just getting Brexit done which is what people have been led to believe.

The problem is and sorry to hark back and not concentrate on the original question Bear ( just got back from work so forgive me this post ) , I know Brexit is happening, I still don't want it to happen but have accepted it is, but I am mystified as to how I am supposed to hold the government to account or oppose anything they do which I don't like in the next 4 and a half years. Other than local council elections, how can I make my voice heard ?
I am not talking about the same old arguments, because you are right they have been done to death and we have all shuffled into the ruts of our well worn sides, where we continue to snipe at each other in the relative safety of a parenting forum.

There will be people who voted leave who wanted a soft Brexit, there will be people who wanted the hard core nuclear option and there are so many other variations in between. Who and how is it decided who gets their preferred brexit ?

And how if at all can they voice their displeasure in the next few years if they are not happy with the outcome ?

We are a net importer though so on balance a weak sterling rate is detrimental to the UK as a whole

Yes.

Of course, if anyone has a serious counter argument to that paper, they could always write their own paper and publish it. 💡

TM said it 108 times, but all guff. Her deal was remain. That’s why she tried to keep the legal advice on her deal out of public scrutiny

...but your original point was that the cost of living has gone up due to remainers causing uncertainty... which blatantly isn't the case- May caused it!!!

The value of a nation's currency is a bit like a companies share price, if investors think we are economically weak, the currency falls... and vice versa.

Considering that sterling has fallen against a basket of currencies over many decades but manufacturing has not boomed, pours water on the fallacy that a weak sterling is somehow "good" for anyone.

Just watching Ch4 on Brits in Spain, one guy (no wonder remainers think leavers thick) said "Brexit is the best thing the UK has done since Thatcher took back the Falklands"

Another Brexitier, who has just moved to Spain to beat the deadlines says brexit is still the best thing to happen to the UK... the end of FOM is a price worth paying... bunch of stupid selfish dickheads.

If it ever actually happens should decide that

Who and how is it decided who gets their preferred brexit?

I think that’s the governments get out of jail card - no one can ever really be held to account over Brexit because no one knew what it was to start with

The majority of us just have to hope it’s not too detrimental - because there’s no other choice

@jas - husband and I just saw the same thing - absolutely unbelievable. Plus in the quiz clip - heaps obviously had no idea of how it was actually going to affect them. 🙇‍♀️🙇‍♀️🙇‍♀️🤦‍♀️

The majority of us just have to hope it’s not too detrimental - because there’s no other choice

Peter Foster of the Telegraph has an interesting take on this. The government has managed to decouple political success from economic performance ("it's not the economy, stupid"), partly because the Brexit frog has been very slow to come to the boil.

But it's a bit of a perilous balancing act, especially with a large crop of MPs representing constituencies which risk being hard hit by a decline in manufacturing.

A measure to be quantified could be increases/decreases in the wages/T&Cs of the UK low-income employed which would include % of income spent on rent, childcare, food, etc as sub-measures.

Over a minimum period of 5 years.

That would be my premier suggested measure.

In so far as the Brexiteer economic perspective makes any sense (humour me) it is a form of mercantilism.

There is a fixed amount of wealth in the UK. Fewer foreigners in our country and fishing in our waters means more for us and less for them. The circular flow of income is a closed system. None of 'our money' leaks out to foreigners who run off with it never to be seen again.

.......But, and here's the magic, the system is also osmotic in its ability to buy imports of all the foreign things we like, because foreign stuff is so much better, all magically paid for by a strong pound, meaning foreigners will have to stump up a small fortune for whatever we choose to let them buy off us, which they will gladly stump up for, because British stuff is so much better.

It doesn't make any kind of sense. It is wishful thinking raised to the level of a theology that passeth all understanding. Like George Michael, you just gotta have Faith.

But it's a bit of a perilous balancing act, especially with a large crop of MPs representing constituencies which risk being hard hit by a decline in manufacturing

And here is where it might all start to unravel ..... unless it is a Brexit that protects jobs and businesses. But didn't Boris once say Fuck business ?

< wanders off to Etsy to see about getting some badges made >

Lonely , the infrastructure to switch to electric is going in very fast. There are issues but the charging points are being built.
And veganism is on the rise and quite sharply.
Some pubs and restaurants near my village are going completely vegan. Coffee tastes funny with non dairy milk

Over a minimum period of 5 years

Yes that would be a good way to measure. But how have these things gone over the last five years or so- particularly wrt wage stagnation under this current government?

There will be an economic shock once things start actually happening. So that’s on top of the fact people’s pay hasn’t gone up.

How could they get better and what’s the mechanism for making them better? Answers on the back of a fag packet a postcard please

Lonely , the infrastructure to switch to electric is going in very fast. There are issues but the charging points are being built.

No I’m sorry, you’re wrong. In terms of kilojoules burnt on our roads, the current infrastructure is a tiny blip of where it needs to be.

Think about it. There would be unbelievable amounts of current needed to be delivered to forecourts to meet current use. Look it up. It’s not cheap.

It doesn’t happen overnight and it makes magic grandpa’s free broadband look like a walk in the park.

It’s unicorns.

Low wages are determined by the govt and the min wage rate, promised to go up to £10.50 within 5 years, low wages have risen considerably over recent years and will continue to do so.

So, not really anything to do with leaving the EU.

Though employment rights would be a good measure.

Look toward universities, tech sector, finance, aerospace and genuine inward investment (not foreign takeovers encourage by a weak currency)