How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

[Bearbehind]

I’ve been pondering this for ages now

In any ‘normal’ project you’d have targets, objectives, deadlines, reviews etc but for Brexit beyond 2 deadlines of 31/1/20 and 31/12/20 there’s nothing

People talk about politicians being accountable now but what do we expect them to deliver and by when

Brexiteers wont care about NI. Just like they didnt before the backstop presented an opportunity for sabre rattling.

The union will likely be sacrificed in the long run for an english brexit.

I'm sure they won't either. I'm sure they are happy to let it slip back forgotten to Ireland. As long as Ireland pays for it. It's pathetic.

The union will likely be sacrificed in the long run for an english brexit

Wales voted leave too.

tbe Stop Brexit argument has lost

Who on here has argued that we should stop Brexit?

Saying that Brexit is a stupid project is not the same thing as saying that Brexit should be stopped (that ship has sailed).

Itll be a mighty little union of 2 then wont it?

It's funny because brexit partly came about due to empire delusions.

Maybe one of the criteria for success could be the impact on Northern Ireland?

DUP and NI businesses have been comprehensively shafted, with declarations set to be required on trade on both directions. But I expect some people think they should just lie back and think of England.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/24/revealed-complex-post-brexit-checks-for-northern-irish-traders

Itll be a mighty little union of 2 then wont it?

Why only 2? I don’t remember either NI or Scotland voting for independence.

It's funny because brexit partly came about due to empire delusions

Brexit Party was formed as MPs were not honouring the referendum result. Watch the Question Time episode in Northampton May last year. Farage got the most applause from the audience by far.

Labour, LibDems and Conservative remain supporters all bricked themselves when Farage topped the EU elections on 23 May 2019.

Give independence time. NI is already being cut adrift because brexit and respecting the GFA are incompatible. Probably because brexiteers never gave NI or the GFA a second thought prior to the referendum.

Brexit party or not empire delusions exist.

But I expect some people think they should just lie back and think of England

I think Beliinsurge view that NI will be forgotten and allowed (or even forced) to reunite with Ireland. Whether that is what the people on the Island of Ireland want I don’t know. However, on the upside the people of NI get what they voted for and remain in the EU.

Probably because brexiteers never gave NI or the GFA a second thought prior to the referendum

Remain campaign said nothing about GFA or NI prior to referendum. Check the booklet sent to all households in the UK and the referendum website. No mention of GFA or NI.

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The booklet was sent out by the government of the day (tories). Take it up with them.

NI was mentioned in debates prior to the referendum, all dismissed as project fear.

NI is already being cut adrift because brexit and respecting the GFA are incompatible

Article 50 was signed by both Ireland and UK and no reference made to either GFA or NI. British Irish Council also overlooked GFA when Article 50 signed.

Give independence time. NI is already being cut adrift because brexit and respecting the GFA are incompatible.

This is true, but I don't think independence should be forced on NI in this way, Independence that is the sincere political choice of majority on both sides of the border is a very different thing to independence that is forced on one or both sides because their economic interests have been harmed by their fellow citizens/neighbours.

Who exactly is being told to shut up?

I don’t think anyone has been told to ‘shut up’. I asked posters who are not engaging with the thread title to post elsewhere

I don't see people trying to re run the old arguments

Lol! This thread is full of such posts!

If I’d started a thread asking for good and bad ideas about say, weddings, I wouldn’t expect people to pile in saying weddings are a waste of money, x percent end in divorce anyway etc

The equivalent has been done on this thread though - it’s about how we measure Brexits achievements yet there’s a group who persists in just moaning about what a shit idea it is and how everyone who voted for it didn’t know their own minds

"Maybe one of the criteria for success could be the impact on Northern Ireland?"

As I said 13 minutes ago.

NI was mentioned in debates prior to the referendum, all dismissed as project fear

In the live TV debates?

Cameron was a hard core remainer. So why did he not list GFA and NI in the booklet that cost the taxpayers £9 Million?

Of course independence wont be forced but the seeds for a border poll get planted the more NI drifts from London. It's a far cry from full regulatory alignment

It was mentioned on tv mystery.

Ask the Tories why it wssnt included in their booklet. Besides we are told people knew what they voted for so if brexit leads to the break up of the UK I'm sure it will have brexiteer blessing.

Here is someone doing some measuring:

cepr.org/events

This paper studies how the depreciation of sterling following the Brexit referendum affected consumer prices in the United Kingdom ... We estimate the Brexit vote increased consumer prices by 2.9 percent, costing the average household £870 per year. The increase in the cost of living is evenly shared across the income distribution, but differs substantially across regions.

(I've snipped some technical detail, but you can read at the link above - it's relatively concise).

for so if brexit leads to the break up of the UK I'm sure it will have brexiteer blessing

Scottish independence referendum was in 2014 two years before UK referendum on EU membership. So they had itchy feet long before Brexit. Wales voted to leave EU to they are obviously share the English viewpoint.

Are Scotland confident they can survive independently? Their current financial situation does not meet EU requirements for membership. That fact was squeezed out of Nicola Sturgeon during the question time special for leaders before the election.

So if Scotland leaves UK and EU reject their application to rejoin the EU where are they left.

NI drifting into Ireland sounds very possible.

This paper studies how the depreciation of sterling following the Brexit referendum affected consumer prices in the United Kingdom ... We estimate the Brexit vote increased consumer prices by 2.9 percent, costing the average household £^870 per year. The increase in the cost of living is evenly shared across the income distribution, but differs substantially across regions

Sterling was always going to drop until the Brexit uncertainty was brought to and end. Uncertainty of any kind always spooks businesses, stock markets and currency. More instructive to look at how sterling has performed since the election which put an end to the uncertainty. It has gained in strength slightly, but the trend is upwards.

Uncertainty was created by remain MPs trying to please their remain supporters. Had the vote been accepted and UK left the EU on 29 March 2019 as planned the cost to households would have been much less.

Really? sterling plummeted following the 'vote and stayed around euro/£ 1.10 (similar % fall against $) for the over 2 1/2 years leading up to March '19.

The uncertainty was caused by threats (by the UK) of no-deal if May didn't get what she wanted from the EU....... remember "no-deal is better than a bad deal?"

As soon as the talk of no-deal exit begins again as the December deadline approaches, Sterling will fall back again, an actually no-deal would see sterling fall below parity.

Sterling was always going to drop until the Brexit uncertainty was brought to and end.
On that basis, Brexit will be proven to be a success by the Sterling/Euro and Sterling/Dollar exchange rates.

Brexit success will be - the pound higher than it was in June 2016
Brexit failure will be - the pound lower than it was before the result

That is a nice clear measure that we can all comprehend and see.

Brexit success could be measured by the number of higher rate taxing paying Michelin starred chefs that get their residency denied?

Claude Bosi is down.

I read there are 159 one star Michelin chefs - so I guess if we could get a few more that could ranked a success?? Or a failure