How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

[Bearbehind]

I’ve been pondering this for ages now

In any ‘normal’ project you’d have targets, objectives, deadlines, reviews etc but for Brexit beyond 2 deadlines of 31/1/20 and 31/12/20 there’s nothing

People talk about politicians being accountable now but what do we expect them to deliver and by when

I think Leave vote was based more on emotions than anything else.

For me it is about changes to trade. Work out a deal that maintains trade with the EU, but at same time have freedom to make deals outside the EU.

Immigration no issue for me as being an immigrant in other countries has been both to my benefit and the UK.

You can oppose all you wish, but nothing will change until the next election

Nothing will change? Nothing at all will change until the next election? What an odd idea.

Working class revolution (Eton elite and government piss off)
Well that went spectactularly wrong then. If it really was the case, which I highly doubt. Brexiteers love all that Boris/Rees-Mogg posh bullshit

I hope, for your sake, it means refocusing your arguments.

Refocus on what? Brexit is now a political fact, but none of the trade, technical or legal issues around actually implementing it have changed. Why would I change my arguments when the situation hasn't changed? It's still a stupid, nativist, isolationist policy that will be complex and damaging to implement, about which neither the government and the electorate has had a serious conversation about trade offs. The passage of the WAB changes precisely none of this.

You've won your argument at the British political level, but Brexit still has to be implemented and that means engaging with stakeholders and actors outside the U.K., almost all of whom will be acting in their own best interests and not in yours.

One measure of success could be looking at how many countries benefit and how many lose out.

It seems the greatest risk of failure is here,Scotland or NI. But that could be seen as quite an insular navel gazing perspective.

Globally some benefits can already be seen for example:

A success for some French businesses and workers there: Many business relocating or planning to. Eg HSBC Bank of America moving staff from London to Paris. Total group and the European Banking Authority moved to Paris. JPMorgan with new European bases, including Paris and Frankfurt.

A success for the Netherlands: eg European Medicines Agency moving there and Sony transferring its European headquarters from Britain to the Netherlands.

A success for the USA: Assuming the Trump trade deal results in an advantage for US businesses.Assuming our trade drops elsewhere- sale of pharma and food is easier for the US if compliant with US regs not EU ones. Also fall in the pound creates relative strength in the dollar.

A success for Russia: The EU on its doorstep is one country smaller. The UK now distanced and isolated from its former economic allies. (https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/why-wont-government-release-the-russia-report-jame/ good summary on Russia benefits here]]

Oddly enough, I've made special arrangements to be out of the UK and in the EU next Friday night...

"You've won your argument at the British political level,"
Are you fucking kidding me?😂😂😂😂

You've won your argument at the British political level, but Brexit still has to be implemented and that means engaging with stakeholders and actors outside the U.K., almost all of whom will be acting in their own best interests and not in yours

Sounds like a No Deal scenario?

Nothing will change? Nothing at all will change until the next election? What an odd idea

How can Boris and the Conservative party be removed before the next election?

"You've won your argument at the British political level,"

The shut up, close your eyes and think of England argument. That argument has been comprehensively won, to the extent that people who (say they) voted remain are telling people to shut up about Brexit on parenting forums.

But the government still has to win arguments at the international level, with stakeholders and counter parties who unlike the great British public can't simply be told to shut up and pretend they're enjoying it.

But the government still has to win arguments at the international level, with stakeholders and counter parties who unlike the great British public can't simply be told to shut up and pretend they're enjoying it

Sounds like a No Deal forecast?

You can oppose all you wish, but nothing will change until the next election.

"Events, dear boy, events." The Tories might last but there is no certainty that Johnson will. His two predecessors didn't last for a whole Parliament after their last elections.

Oddly enough, I've made special arrangements to be out of the UK and in the EU next Friday night...

So have I.

"The shut up, close your eyes and think of England argument. That argument has been comprehensively won, to the extent that people who (say they) voted remain are telling people to shut up about Brexit on parenting forums."

But I'm not making that argument. I'm saying, make some new fucking arguments because tbe Stop Brexit argument has lost. And all you are doing is rehashing glory days of Stop Brexit.
How dare you suggest I am lying about how I voted in tbe referendum. Are you now looking for fucking purists. You're no better than Brextremists.

His two predecessors didn't last for a whole Parliament after their last elections

Probably because they were remain supporters. A remain supporter being PM and given the task of leading Brexit was always going to be a failure.

And I'm not telling you to shut up. I'm telling you to argue smarter. You are undermining your position and the notice people will take of you by trotting out the same old stuff.

Both Bear and Bellinsurge are applying the principle of;

Losers consent = Democracy

They may not agree with Brexit and vote against it if such a vote becomes possible in the future, but they accept the election result.

If people change their minds before the next election that is their right and can vote accordingly.

You are undermining your position and the notice people will take of you by trotting out the same old stuff

Correct. After 3 years of; more project fear, huffing and puffing by remain supporters who were convinced that the UK had changed their minds what was the outcome? Answer. A big majority win for the party that supported Brexit and UK will leave the EU on 31st Jan 2020.

It will be impossible. Economists can't even agree what the best course of action is under normal circumstances! I'm not even sure the question is even relevant anymore. We are Brexiting. Whether it's good or bad is now irrelevant. It is what it is. All we can do is make the best of it.

UK tells the French what to do ever since Agincourt

Funniest thing I've read on here!
Can only assume that was posted in jest. It seriously cannot be about something as stupid as that. If I were a leave voter I'd be offended that anyone assumes this was my motivation. Pure idiocy.

(Plus it was England fighting France at Agincourt, the UK didn't exist back then.)
And this:
*Germany and France piss off

WWII and WWI victory over Germany*

Stop the jingoistic bullshit. It's demeaning for the country.

Where am I saying jingoistic bullshit? I don't say that crap. I don't believe it. And despite what has been said on here. I'm not a liar . I didn't vote for Brexit . I don't want it. We've got it. I refuse to spend the next 40 years being a Faridge-esque swivel eyed loon about Remain.

Who exactly is being told to shut up?

I don't see people trying to re run the old arguments but we do need to be able to measure the success or otherwise of Brexit.

For a starter we should be expecting to see a substantial sum of money going into the NHS - preferably the £350 million a week on the bus, which Johnson was happy to promote. It needs to be real money which gets to the A & E departments, wards, and GPs' surgeries - not money for 'consultants' or lining the pockets of big Pharma.

Would Scotland gaining independence or Ireland reuniting be a success?

@bellinisurge
Did I miss a step and you posted it as sarcasm? I thought someone had seriously posted that....
If so then sorry!

His two predecessors didn't last for a whole Parliament after their last elections

Probably because they were remain supporters. A remain supporter being PM and given the task of leading Brexit was always going to be a failure.

Regardless of why, they didn't last the whole term so therefore it's perfectly possible that Boris won't. Even more likely in fact, given the general murk surrounding him and the weird glint in his eyes a lot of the time..

Boris isn't a Leaver either. Boris is a Boriser, nothing more.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/24/revealed-complex-post-brexit-checks-for-northern-irish-traders

As I said on these threads many a time : border in the sea. And here it is: www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/24/revealed-complex-post-brexit-checks-for-northern-irish-traders

I will enjoy watching Johnson squirm over this and Brexiteers explaining why this is better for NI than the backstop.