How will we measure Brexit’s success or failure?

[Bearbehind]

I’ve been pondering this for ages now

In any ‘normal’ project you’d have targets, objectives, deadlines, reviews etc but for Brexit beyond 2 deadlines of 31/1/20 and 31/12/20 there’s nothing

People talk about politicians being accountable now but what do we expect them to deliver and by when

How am I a winner, ffs. How is Bear (although she can speak for herself)? No one is saying forget it. I am saying please stop fighting battles that were lost. It undermines what you fought for and looks like a petulant nursing of a grievance. There are new battles ahead. Such as holding the government to account for its efforts to make this work.

Which is tbe op.
For me, I want to see a boost to the economy where I live. Here. In tbe North. I will measure the government against its promise to do that. I lived through Thatcher so I know what I am looking for.
It could have been done without Brexit but here we are.

A few examples of angry thread policing, all taken from this thread. You won: please stop trying to shut down people who don't share your views. This is a public forum; you don't have to read posts but you can't stop people posting them.

"I’m just asking you to leave this thread"
^
"Please stop posting crap like that on here"

"I'm asking you to say something more constructive"

"it’s [discussion of how shit Brexit is] not welcome h^ere"

Until the next election comes along the entire UK has to go along with Boris

Not going to happen. In fact, I expect Tory rebels to start popping up way before the next GE as they realise they will need to dissociate themselves from mess made

Dear God, some of you just go on and on and on

What bellini said above is exactly right - your battle is lost - get over that and look to what’s next

And Doris the massive difference between saying you need to accept 5 years of Boris and saying Brexit is shit is that you’re getting 5 years of Boris so you do need to accept it

You are also getting Brexit, however shit it may be, so you need to accept that too instead of just whinging about how shit it will be

We officially leave in 1 week and there’s no turning back after that yet Armageddon isn’t looming.

I’m utterly fed up of the same handful of posters using this thread to vent their spleen about things which cannot be changed, things which have been said a million times already and made no difference before and all with a sense of superiority about how they are right and it’s everyone else who’s wrong

I’m not flouncing from my own thread, I just CBA with it until the posters with their own agenda have got bored and left.

People accept that Brexit is happening. Some of us will continue to oppose it and point out that it's shit even if the thought police on Mumsnet want them to shut up.

Things can be changed: Brexit is happening, but at the moment it's a purely theoretical concept which has yet to really engage with the real world outside the U.K.

Almost no one outside the UK thinks that Brexit is a good idea (and most of the exceptions are bad actors) and we are going to have to grapple with a massive loss of influence and good will.

I agree that measuring the impact and making judgements about success/failure is important but it's impossible to make those judgements until the government tell us what their objectives.

If the government's overriding objective is to reduce immigration, then even if Brexit crashes the economy it may still be a success by that criteria (because a weak economy will automatically reduce immigration and increase emigration).

Until the next election comes along the entire UK has to go along with Boris.

Which is rubbish. If you believe that something is wrong, then you oppose it.

People do accept that Brexit is happening - this is what the thread is about. How are you going to know that it's successful? Johnson saying that it has been done and shut up about it now doesn't make it so. It doesn't magic up the necessary paperwork for exports. The railway lines to the north don't mysteriously lay themselves, the hospitals don't build and staff themselves. We need to see some work being done and some concrete plans. We haven't had a good start - one month in we have had Bongs for Big Ben as the key idea.

One area i think is of concern is the Universities sector, heavily reliant on the ability of academics & students to easily cross between EU/UK without work visas and the 180/90 rule.

Once again, Brexit presents opportunities for EU countries to make inroads into areas we excel at.

Hello Bear,
I have been following this thread and thinking about the question you pose.

In many ways it is an impossible question because it means different things to different people.

To some us leaving legally on the 31st is enough. We're out. To those who objected to the EU as an organisation, who disliked "ever closer union" or the ECJ. Job done. They are not interested in trade or FOM or Erasmus. So, success.

To others the fact that FOM will soon go and with it Erasmus is the disaster. They will almost certainly find it more difficult to work across the EU27. So the mere fact that Brexit has happened is a disaster.

Neither of these things can be measured in any realistic way.

To others trade deals are important maybe because jobs, exports, their business depend on a good FTA.

To others the loss of EU staff in the NHS or the university are what they are concerned about.
I think for many people their lives will not change.
There will be job losses like those announced yesterday in Morrisons which are more to do with the change in peoples' shopping habits. But will these be viewed as "despite Brexit" or because of Brexit.
There will be job gains which are Brexit related and those which are not related.

There are so many different interpretations of "success" and "failure" both on a personal and national level that it makes the question impossible to answer.

To many on these boards it is about economics. But to a lot of people it is personal.

Some good discussion on the latest Brexitcast on the nature of Leave as a Fish-worshipping cult: 'In Cod We Trust.'

(Not that there are any cod in UK waters. Don't tell them that.)

Which is rubbish. If you believe that something is wrong, then you oppose it

You can oppose all you wish, but nothing will change until the next election.

My friend told me yesterday how pleased he was that we are finally leaving.
Why?
Because we are net contributors and he thinks we shouldn't be.

He tells me that he will have to get an international driving licence for France and a different one for Spain.

It will be inconvenient and will cost him.
But he told me that it will be worth it.
To him it is a success that we will leave.
Different things matter to different people.
How do we measure that.
And it is no good saying "he's an ignorant twat". Does that solve anything.
And, anyway, he's not he is a senior engineer.

I will be interested to see what the SNP do to mitigate Brexit. They have opposed it at every turn and refused to ratify the bill. They also have a lot of local power and Sturgeon could turn around and say Scotland will commit to regulatory alignment (for example) and participate in Erasmus as a third country.

@Mistigri what form will "continue to oppose it" take for you. When you can't stop it happening. I hope, for your sake, it means refocusing your arguments.

7 days and counting. 31st is a Friday and I will be in the UK to pop the champagne cork at midnight.

Hi copper

I think this sums it up really

But will these be viewed as "despite Brexit" or because of Brexit

It just depends on what side of the fence you’re looking at it from doesn’t it. Or you might be actually on the fence

I do think this let’s the government off the hook though because they know they’ll never please the die hard Remainers, they know they don’t have to do any more than leave to please the die hard Leavers and for everyone else in the middle, they’re just hoping nothing extreme happens so in terms or tangible deliverables, there won’t be any / many

Got to admit that Brexiteers gloating does make me want to tell them to shove their champagne corks up their arse. But let them have their fun. They won. I lost. Let's wait for concrete improvements.
We may have a long wait but I can be patient.

I will be in the UK to pop the champagne cork at midnight

You’ll be an hour late then! We leave at midnight EU time, which I do find funny TBH 😂😂

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

I think champagne corks can be popped at 11 pm.

Bear, there may or may not be tangible deliverables but there are so many conflicting circumstances that we may never know the effect that was Brexit.

We should have new jobs in the renewable energy market
How will peoples' shopping habits change?
I am told more people are reluctant to travel by air.
Who will be the next POTUS?

I think it will be difficult to extract Brexit as a cause or effect.
I am content because we will be away from the ECJ
My friend is hoping for lower corporation tax
I think it is interesting but too complex.

who according to Mystery voted because they don't like foreigners, mainly the black/brown variety who don't tend to come from the EU, though areas that voted leave with very little immigration must have done so because they are just a bunch of racist little englanders, if Mystery is correct in his/her analysis

I would say leave won due to;

Uncontrolled immigration
National pride (ie Germany and France piss off)
Working class revolution (Eton elite and government piss off)
WWII and WWI victory over Germany
UK tells the French what to do ever since Agincourt

I think champagne corks can be popped at 11 pm

Okay. I will have two bottles. One for 11pm (midnight EU time) and another at 12am UK time.

What's so bad about the ECJ ?
Did stuff like stopping us pumping raw sewage onto our beaches, gave us equal pay, employment rights etc.
Which I view as good things. How can that be bad ?

I would say leave won due to;
Uncontrolled immigration
National pride (ie Germany and France piss off)
Working class revolution (Eton elite and government piss off)
WWII and WWI victory over Germany
UK tells the French what to do ever since Agincourt

I think you are probably right but there’s not a single thing in there to be proud of and several which people should be thoroughly ashamed of