Westministenders: Election Special 2

[RedToothBrush]

Exit poll

Con majority of 68.

65 seats regarded technically as still too close to call. But that could mean an even bigger majority.

Blyth Valley has seen a 10% swing to the cons in line with the exit poll. 1st shock of the night

ginandtonic......... I've been watching BBC NI coverage for the past couple of hours, North Down just about to declare.

“My question is why did labour go all out and frighten so many people - income/ inheritance/corporation (small businesses)/dividend/vat(school fees). I’m not disagreeing that all shd be in scope but a more moderate agenda would surely have been more appealing and not alienated so many?”

They tried that last time though...

South Shields vote back to 2015 levels.

Hazard did you look at Ireland?

South Shields
Labour 17,723,( 18,589)
Brexit 6446
Conservative 7,688, (6,021)

(UKIP - 7975)

Figures in brackets are 2015 numbers

Those claiming it's just Corbyn - that Labour just need to change him and all will be fine:

That's understandable from Tory posters
... so the next Labour leader can be demonised and defeated too

Those on the left and centre might want to think more deeply, because there are several factors:

It's a lot about Brexit,
their referendum victory seen as a raised middle finger to all the mc professional "elite" they despise and finally beat - they quite like the uc elite

Anger at how Parliament - especially some prominant Labour Remainers - & courts blocked Brexit for months
Dreams of a return to former British glory - as in the BJ piffle
Wanting to get rid of immigrants

Wanting authoritarian policies instead of liberal ones

It's also about not caring enough about the NHS, the disabled & vulnerable to want to pay taxes to support them

green party complains:
"its not fair we need voting reform"

BCF I'm not in NI, so don't get BBC NI - I expected the main BBC coverage to have some NI coverage as there were some interesting contests there, but nothing so far and the exit polls don't cover NI. We don't have Sky either, so I'm stuck with either BBC or ITV.

In contrast to NE, straight swap from LAB to CON swing in Nuneaton. Shows how much Johnson & Cummings stitched Farage up like a (u)kipper.

Apile - DP not keen on Ireland thinks they'll hate us and there's no specialists for his condition over there.

Matthew Goodwin on Twitter @GoodwinMJ

The narrative' is already emerging. Replace Mr Corbyn and all shall be well. Not so. Labour's problem is that it's breaking into 3 parties (1) liberal degree-holding Brahmin Left, (2) dwindling blue-collar, socially conservative Traditional Left, (3) students + ethnic minorities

Many Labour leavers prioritised Brexit and many Remainers prioritised paying lower tax,

... and I suspect much of the froth about the dimwit Corbyn is just a handy excuse to themselves & others, to justify voting Tory

Anger at how Parliament - especially some prominant Labour Remainers - & courts blocked Brexit for months

I wonder how many Labour seats fell to the Tories the moment the "Supreme" Court decided to butt in?

And the moment the Benn Act was passed?

And the moment Letwin torpedoed Boris' Deal?

Remainers have been good at short-term tactics, disastrous at long-term strategy.

I don't think Labour will win again until things are sufficiently shit for enough people but that's only if I don't look too closely at Putin's vote share.

I don't think it's any one, or two, or three things. I think it's all interlinked. People don't vote for just one thing, not even in the referendum. Corbyn and how he dealt with Brexit etc etc.

flouncy Thanks - switched over now, I couldn't have coped with any more Farage, Banks, Francois on BBC!

Hazard I doubt you'd be hated but the lack of specialists makes it a no go I suppose.

Wansbeck hold for Labour but BXP definitely reduced majority.

If Erdington and Northfield brum seats go blue then I think thats "get brexit done" and hs2 reasons.

Matthew Goodwin has outlined part of the problem:

atm, many Labour voters want conflicting things

Parties typically have this, but their voters normally decide to accept they can only have certain things, not everything

atm, 2 or 3 of the Labour voter types won't play with each other and in fact regard each other as enemies

BCF you are looking at it from one angle. And i don't disagree with you on the points you make

BUT

the cons cant win in many seats without the middle class well off vote too.

There are more than one very distinct demographics.

The 7 tribes are the somewheres, the young kind capitalists, the traditionalists, the progressives, the hard left, strong right and the centrists.

Johnson is closer in nature on the political compass to more than Corbyn.

Just a point, but a friend has just messaged me turnout in poor v affluent areas at the count they are at.

Turnout outs in well off areas c 80% poor 50% avg 65%

Lib Dems double their vote in Broxbourne (from 3% to 6%)