Westminstenders: Election Special

[RedToothBrush]

Spreadsheet of declaration times from 2017 by constituency

sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/10/an-hour-by-hour-guide-to-election-night/
Key constituencies by declaration time to help you understand what might be going on

yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
YouGov MRP

www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground
List of seats by marginality and party targeting them

I just passed a queue of cars waiting to go into the car park at my polling station. I’ve never seen this before - could just be weather related as it’s cold and very wet (it’s an urban polling station, so most people usually walk the few hundred metres to vote). I’m in marginal Bedford and I’m waiting for DH to get home before going to vote.

Love this.

DGR i think you have lured me back grin are you pulling an all-nighter?

The MN thread database is going to look like spaghetti, all these posters cross posting

Not an all nighter. But DW and I have carved out the evening. Catch up with some stuff pre-10 (might catch the Simon Evans RHLSTP) and then Russell Howard Election special with a flick over to Ch4 now and then. I've downloaded the spreadsheet with the declaration times and MRP predictions (much to DWs amusement) onto my tablet, so will be able to make my own judgement about whether to drink the Kool Aid.

Generally DW crashes early (MS fatigue ) and I'll stay up until it's clear what the overall look is. 2017 I think it was around 3:30-4:00 ish when it was clear the Tories could not form a government.

Waves at oubliette form Mid Beds! (Humbug!)

That's hopefully good news!

My facebook feed is full of ads encouraging tactical voting for Yasin.

Thoughts and prayers from Mid beds! Do It For Your Poor Neighbours with Dorries!

I just passed a queue of cars waiting to go into the car park at my polling station. I’ve never seen this before - could just be weather related as it’s cold and very wet (it’s an urban polling station, so most people usually walk the few hundred metres to vote).

We drove - 400m . Because we could. But if DW had wanted I would have pushed. And as she has always said, if that wasn't an option, she would "arse it one cheek at a time". Voting is too precious.

Oooh when will Bercow be on sky news? I might stay up for that!

@Piggywaspushed - DH and I are both voting Labour.

Let's hope it works out. The local Tory keeps bigging up his 'local' credentials as if Yasin isn't local.That, given his race, makes me feel very very uncomfortable. The LibDem is also local. They all are, frankly so it's hardly a USP.

9pm :)

Cast my ‘anyone but Tory’ vote today at 5pm. Polling station was quiet but a lot of people were coming in just as I was heading out.

I’m in a ‘true blue’ area but Lib Dem’s could do well here.

The LibDem hasn’t actually had a real job though - he basically went straight from being a student to being a local councillor. He’s obviously aiming to be a career politician. Since he went to Bedford School, he probably sees himself as the next Paddy Ashdown.

The Tory candidate keeps stressing that he voted leave. I’m not sure this will work for him (the marginal victory for leave in the referendum was for an area that includes a large chunk of the true-blue rural hinterland surrounding the town - I suspect Bedford itself narrowly voted remain). Especially as Bedford dumped their previous Brexit-backing Tory at the last GE. I have hope that Yasin will hang on to the seat. But there is little doubt it’s going to be a close result.

I've just had a positive dream thought : (those of us old enough to remember 1992) remember how disappointed we were when Labour lost and the Conservatives under Major still had a majority, when everyone (including the Conservatives ) thought that Labour would win.....

Wouldn't it be lovely if this time round the boot is on the other shoe and even though everyone thinks the Conservatives will win, they end up similarly disappointed

Back in reality , I spent the afternoon doing a "knock up"'of identified SNP supporters (good results: most had already voted, a few were still to vote and a surprisingly small number were out - only one said that they weren't voting). The two people I was doing it with asked what I thought the result would be. They, like me, said that they thought that it would be a narrow BJ victory - but that it was too close to call and that the margin of error and tactical voting could change things either way

My MIL never voted anything but Tory, 71.
Voted Lib Dem one less Tory vote for Theresa Villiers.

That's true about Vann.

I think Henson is misreading Bedford and completely and outrageously ignoring the Italian and Asian vote!!

He also wrote the most odious thing about Scotland only about 5 years ago. He talks a good talk and seems like a nice young Christian boy but I suspect he is Very Right Wing.

And don't get me started on Fuller!! Lose your seat ignominiously and then get handed a safe one to replace Alistair Burt.

Said on the other thread polling staff said it's been busy when we went. No posters or boards up ANYWHERE we're all mysterious in these parts. Labour have campaigned hard locally. The labour lady campaigner who knocked on my door today looked exhausted. She was offering us a lift which is new...did she know we're a disabled person household? I've no idea i forgot to ask because we didn't need a lift plus DP was still in Christmas pjs so we weren't ready to leave any time soon

The worst bit is the hope and having it dashed. I have wok to do that I'd normally do tomorrow morning but I'm going to do it tonight as the results come in as I'm an hour ahead here in Spain so it'll be even later.
If it's a Tory majority I'll not feel in the mood to do it in the morning either.

I voted at 8.20 this morning and it was empty, apart from the person I passed going in. I don't normally vote so early, though- it may well have got busier later on!
I am holding out hope that the good people of Uxbridge turf out Boris, at the least.

Placemarking

I wish I could stay up all night but realistically it isn't happening. I have work and I have a hellacious weekend lined up (in a good way but busy).

Shall save my rather nice red wine for the purpose of drowning sorrows tomorrow (or celebrating if there is a hung parliament).

DGR
Do not feel guilty driving to the polls.
Be Proud that even in wet cold dark December you both voted

Cast my ‘anyone but Tory’ vote today at 5pm.

I have changed ABC from meaning 'anything but Chardonnay' to meaning 'anything but Conservative'.

How are you voting? ABC.

The worst bit is the hope and having it dashed.

Is that really worse than the fear and having it confirmed though?

My right to vote expired in September. I am currently coping by drinking beer and hopefully falling asleep in front of tv later instead of obsessively checking as I did in 2016

It’s exactly a year since Theresa May survived the confidence vote of Conservative MPs. Just in case anyone else finds this interesting.